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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

By Cap, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR vs XXR,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Eric Riley said:

Way low, huh? 🤔

Yep, still feel that was way low with the data on hand at the time. I had 3.5*10 as an absolute worst case for the 4day, so I think we’re coming in way on the low end and while on course that does make the forecast look good an n of 1 doesn’t demonstrate too much either way. If you expand to a larger set of OWs where I strongly disagreed with the BOP forecast (or look at the derby (or behavior from smart players in other BO games this week)) I think there is actually pretty robust evidence that we are indeed coming fairly on the low side of where things looked Th — and still beating that forecast.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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IMAX becoming desperate for content at the moment. Not sure how much will be gained here.

 

 

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

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Posted
4 hours ago, stripe said:

No one tracking King's Daughter presales?

 :sparta:

I looked for it yesterday but it didn't have showtimes in any of my theaters so far. I read that it will be released in ca. 1k theaters so maybe it's at least listed in some AMCs tomorrow. If I'll report it.  

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

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On 1/16/2022 at 5:04 PM, Product Driven Legion said:

Yep, still feel that was way low with the data on hand at the time. I had 3.5*10 as an absolute worst case for the 4day, so I think we’re coming in way on the low end and while on course that does make the forecast look good an n of 1 doesn’t demonstrate too much either way. If you expand to a larger set of OWs where I strongly disagreed with the BOP forecast (or look at the derby (or behavior from smart players in other BO games this week)) I think there is actually pretty robust evidence that we are indeed coming fairly on the low side of where things looked Th — and still beating that forecast.

Such as? I'm genuinely asking. What were your specific disagreements? What were your final predictions for every single movie that's released over the last 9 months?

 

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

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Well, in Ontario we are getting an announcement this week relating to reducing restrictions (no details that Ive seen yet). Hopefully this means that Ontario theatres are allowed to go back to being open again. Lots of noises of "glimmers of hope" and "peak this and that". So here's hoping I can rejoin everyone again soon, just as I was starting to get the hang of tracking on my PC, this stuff happens. Hoping for the best.:hellothere:

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

The King's Daughter now indeed has showtimes in 5 of my 7 theaters (for both Thursday and Friday) but only whimpy 4 respectively 10 sold tickets at the moment. Completely dumped and overlooked as it seems (and the story doesn't even sound so uninteresting IMO).
 

Redeeming Love gets also showtimes in 5 theaters and had today 106 sold tickets for Thursday and 118 sold tickets for Friday.
Comps: Overcomer (8.1M OW) had 91 and 34 sold tickets (final count on Thursday of its release week)

and American Underdog (5.9M OW) had 39 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday (= also 1 day left) and 96 sold tickets for Saturday (= also 2 days left). If RL follows those two movies its presales are ok.
The 355 (4.6M OW) had 176 sold tickets on Wednesday for Thursday and 139 sold tickets on Wednesday for Friday.
 

And Jackass Forever: It had a few minutes ago 26 sold tickets for Thursday (jackass forever plus bonus content) and 66 sold tickets for Friday.
Considering that its tickets went on sale a few hours ago the Friday presales look ok IMO but no rush so far.
 

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

It was frustrating to count today :(.


The King's Daughter had today with the same showtimes as yesterday 12 tickets sold for today and 14 tickets sold for tomorrow. I agree that a sub-1M OW could very well happen.
 

Redeeming Love had today 112 sold tickets for today and 110 (yes, it decreased) sold tickets for tomorrow (also with showtimes in 5 theaters on both days).
Comps: Overcomer (8.1M OW) had 91 and 34 sold tickets (final count on Thursday of its release week),
American Underdog (5.9M OW) had on Saturday for Saturday 206 sold tickets in the same 5 theaters,
The 355 (4.6M OW) had 154 sold tickets on Thursday for Thursday in the same 5 theaters and 133 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday, also in the same 5 theaters.
And Last Night in Soho had in the same 5 theaters 248 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday.
 

At least Jackass Forever made some progress: Today it had 42 sold tickets for Thursday (up 62% since yesterday) and 142 sold tickets for Friday (up 115%).

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

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Alright the info you've all been waiting for, the info that has threatened the shutdown of this site due to its massive significance.....okay well maybe not.....

 

ANYWAY, End of Jan Theatres in Ontario will open to 50 percent capacity, and then Feb 21, sounds like all indoor capacities will be lifted (Masks and vaccinations will still be required for forseeable future)-so looks like I can take part in Batman fun come March, which will be good. 

 

So yea movement Ontario Theatre front anyway. 

 

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-spider-man-no-way-home-to-reclaim-1-over-scream-redeeming-love-and-the-kings-daughter-debut/

 

Weekend Forecast

Boxoffice projects between a 39 to 44 percent decline for this weekend’s top ten films from last weekend’s $68.4 million top ten aggregate. 

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 23 Location Count 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Scream (2022) Paramount Pictures $12,700,000 $51,600,000 3,666 -58%
Spider-Man: No Way Home Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios $12,600,000 $719,600,000 3,705 -37%
Sing 2 Universal Pictures $5,400,000 $128,000,000 3,434 -32%
Redeeming Love Universal Pictures $2,800,000 $2,800,000 1,903 NEW
The King’s Man Disney / 20th Century Studios $1,600,000 $31,200,000 2,360 -27%
The 355 Universal Pictures $1,300,000 $10,800,000 2,609 -43%
American Underdog Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company $1,100,000 $23,000,000 ~2,150 -30%
Licorice Pizza United Artists Releasing $700,000 $10,800,000 772 -20%
West Side Story (2021) Disney / 20th Century Studios $675,000 $35,000,000 1,290 -27%
Belle GKIDS $600,000 $3,100,000 n/a -64%
The King’s Daughter Gravitas Ventures $575,000 $575,000 2,170 NEW
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

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33 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

God, will the #1 movie of the 28-30th be like 7m? Surely will be lowest #1 since May 21-23 when Spiral was top with 4.5m in its second week

 

Hitman Bodyguard 2 was #1 with 11.3m on June 18 (16.7 5day)

NWH could be 9+ I guess, which at least beats may 14, may 7, April 16, Mar 5. Certainly going to be the doldrums though.

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