The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

No they are not. They are saying 65-75 for the extended holiday period,   4 DAY.

 

Ouch if that is accurate. Thats more like 55-60 for the 3 day. I think the numbers here indicate a little better than that at this stage. 

The last movie in the franchise made $72M over the 3-day portion of a 5-day 4th of July holiday which ended being $99M over the long frame five years ago, which was still down by a noticeable amount from the $115M opening of Minions on a non-holiday weekend less than two years earlier, so $65-75M 4-day sounds about right all thing considered.

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

+46% 😉

 

Given the pace in other samples, think that number at least triples by Thursday.  I'm still sitting on $7-$8M range, honestly feeling like that's more likely to be too low than too high

I want Minion 2 to do great because that will give Disney some proof that family business is booming and stop cheapen Pixar brand to streaming.

 

but lately a lot of films including Elvis and LY, only show their true “weakness” on the last day of the presale cycle. Even TGM last day of presale was pretty much considering the amazing leg that follow. All these really stop me from being optimistic about any breakout potential.  

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

+46% 😉

 

Given the pace in other samples, think that number at least triples by Thursday.  I'm still sitting on $7-$8M range, honestly feeling like that's more likely to be too low than too high

I agree it can do triple by THU but this +46% isn't exactly full day. The yday post was around 5PM PST, today is around 8:30 PM. Unless @keysersoze123 ran it 24 hours, those extra 3 hours make big difference since those are peak hours for sales. 

[Alex SciChannel]

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The last movie in the franchise made $72M over the 3-day portion of a 5-day 4th of July holiday which ended being $99M over the long frame five years ago, which was still down by a noticeable amount from the $115M opening of Minions on a non-holiday weekend less than two years earlier, so $65-75M 4-day sounds about right all thing considered.

I don't think it sounds like an accurate prediction to me seeing how this thread is tracking ~7M previews. Because these previews start earlier  an internal Friday multiplier would be something like 4.25x making Friday 29.75M. That's more in line with 65M - 75M being a good 3-day range.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

+46% 😉

 

Given the pace in other samples, think that number at least triples by Thursday.  I'm still sitting on $7-$8M range, honestly feeling like that's more likely to be too low than too high

its more than 24 hours. More like 28 and that too prime hours. I will try to get end of day wednesday. I am not seeing 8m but you never know. 

[keysersoze123]

37 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Not a great day for Thor4.

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	Previous 2 Days		5 Days Ago
Showings Added	53	0	20		18
Seats Added	6,501	0	2,525		2,406
Seats Sold	6,017	6,776	11,687		7,431
6/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	438	6,427	231,449	1,109,983	20.85%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	13	105	353	699
ATP
$17.01

 

DS2 sold 10,485(T-9) and that too in 8 few theaters tracked. Probably those theaters may not make a huge difference but it does add to it. Let us hope this is 1 day anomaly. Otherwise its going in the wrong direction. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

DS2 sold 10,485(T-9) and that too in 8 few theaters tracked. Probably those theaters may not make a huge difference but it does add to it. Let us hope this is 1 day anomaly. Otherwise its going in the wrong direction. 

Next 4-5 days it will be short of DS2. DS2 was very strong in these 4-5 days and that's when we were thinking of $40M previews being possible. 

 

Thor can however make for it in final 3 days when DS2 wasn't that impressive.

[charlie Jatinder]

Tuesday pace is very good for Minions. @TwoMisfits any discounts today for minions we need to consider?

[THUNDER BIRD]

I know how internet feels about them

But Minions Rise of Gru is genuinely looking better than Lightyear was, so i won't be surprised if it does better than Lightyear. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	24235	31597	7362	23.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

178

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	42.27		416	17415		0/308	20137/37552	46.38%		28183	26.12%		21.14m
Batman	158.90		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	62.62%		34.32m
MoM	65.21		265	11290		0/353	31386/42676	26.46%		21117	34.86%		23.47m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	228.54		142	2908		0/119	16352/19260	15.10%		9196	80.06%		31.59m
L&T (adj)			156	6646		0/188	19657/26303	25.27%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         729/4831  [15.09% sold]
Matinee:    340/2566  [13.25% | 4.62% of all tickets sold]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	237	24964	32614	7650	23.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	1017
Total Seats Sold Today	288

 

T-9 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	42.88		424	17839		0/311	20218/38057	46.87%		28183	27.14%		21.44m
Batman	159.34		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	65.07%		34.42m
MoM	65.42		403	11693		0/353	30983/42676	27.40%		21117	36.23%		23.55m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	223.94		171	3079		0/122	16185/19264	15.98%		9196	83.19%		30.95m
L&T (adj)			249	6895		0/197	20425/27320	25.24%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         759/4831  [15.71% sold]
Matinee:    359/2566  [13.99% | 4.69% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/27/2022 at 11:44 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	188	25737	27642	1905	6.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

488

 

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	161.85		182	1177		0/153	19354/20531	5.73%		3034	62.79%		7.28m
Sonic 2	116.87		269	1630		0/109	12800/14430	11.30%		3951	48.22%		7.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        244/5236  [4.66% sold]
Matinee:    202/2534  [7.97% | 10.60% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yesterday was no fluke.  Locally at least. Don't know if it can keep that pace going against GBA/Sonic 2, as it has to keep outselling those two on their final three days.  Even so, a very impressive start to the week here in SacTown.

 

Only real question now is, how much will kids tickets impact the comps.

 

(Presuming Sacto isn't wildly out of step here, of course)

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	214	27446	30180	2734	9.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today	26
Total Seats Added Today	2538
Total Seats Sold Today	829

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	181.06		333	1510		0/178	21594/23104	6.54%		3034	90.11%		8.15m
Sonic 2	130.44		466	2096		0/119	13278/15374	13.63%		3951	69.20%		8.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        381/6262  [6.08% sold]
Matinee:    312/3398  [9.18% | 11.41% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

L-O-L. 

 

A reminder, once again, that family movies, especially ones that are kid-focused, are really backloaded.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Porthos
Fixed final total fields - will update older posts later

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-3 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
302	76,850	2,498	3.25%	$29,580	$11.84

 

+705 yesterday. Good day, almost par 735 of Lightyear. 

 

Comps

0.89x Lightyear T-3 days - $4.9M (adj for ATP $4.4M)

 

$6M is doable.

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-2 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
325	81,999	3,894	4.75%	$46,186	$11.86

 

Comps

1.11x Lightyear T-3 days - $6.1M (adj for ATP $5.4M)

 

+1396 yesterday. Big day. Way ahead of Lightyear. Probably 6.3K+ tomorrow and 19K final. That should be good for around $8M

 

 

[bakedpotato]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-2 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
325	81,999	3,894	4.75%	$46,186	$11.86

 

Comps

1.11x Lightyear T-3 days - $6.1M (adj for ATP $5.4M)

 

+1396 yesterday. Big day. Way ahead of Lightyear. Probably 6.3K+ tomorrow and 19K final. That should be good for around $8M

 

 

So I'm hearing conflicting opinions. I believe Friday for a 4-day weekend with Monday holiday should have Friday encompassing mid to higher-end of the range, percentage of the 3-day (Fri, Sat, Sun) weekend. And some others have said that there is backloading for kid's movies which seems the opposite. Balancing those factors (if I even understand correctly?), what might we expect for a range on OD for Minions given the expected previews / early sales? What would we need to be on track for e.g. 75M OW 3-Day?

Sorry for all the questions, pretty new to the tracking game but been lurking for a while.

Edited June 29, 2022 by bakedpotato

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/28/2022 at 1:04 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-10 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
421	105,695	11,820	11.18%	$150,546	$12.74

 

Solid day today. +443. Though this include 2 shows which had sold 120 seats, but were removed today. I assume they will be back tomorrow or some day.

 

The film almost matched the target of 2605 increase of DSitMoM in last 7 days with 2560. In next 7 days, DSitMoM sold really well with 9.9K sales. That will be tough to match. A 7K increase will be a solid result, so let's target 18.8K by T-3 days. 

 

Comps

0.587x of DSitMoM admits- $21.1M

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-9 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
459	113,952	12,234	10.74%	$155,421	$12.70

 

+414. Ok day. Could have been better but fine. Won't be able to match DSitMoM pace in next 3-4 days.

 

Comps

0.587x of DSitMoM admits - $21.1M

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Tuesday pace is very good for Minions. @TwoMisfits any discounts today for minions we need to consider?

 

Not that I saw - no national TMobile deal and nothing on Atom generally.  If there are discounts (and kids' movies usually have them somewhere), they are much more limited, so they won't affect much.

[M37]

8 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I want Minion 2 to do great because that will give Disney some proof that family business is booming and stop cheapen Pixar brand to streaming.

 

but lately a lot of films including Elvis and LY, only show their true “weakness” on the last day of the presale cycle. Even TGM last day of presale was pretty much considering the amazing leg that follow. All these really stop me from being optimistic about any breakout potential.  

No, those titles were showing their weakness well before those last few days; there's a reason I was lower than most here on Elvis in that last week and have been banging the drum for Minions since the weekend sales tracking numbers were posted. The phrase I keep using is growth rate, that is the % increase in total sales, because it projects how much those final days will increase

 

Using data from @Porthos in Sacto, but its the same pattern/math to look for in all tracking samples. Here's some select films, and their growth rate over the last 10 days (using a 3-day growth because of the smaller sample size, single day numbers are kinda bouncy).

 

 

• Strange - Had high volume of pre-sales, so a smaller % increase, but still solid volume of sales in last week
• Fast 9/Shang-Chi/JWD - All strong finishers, lots of walk-ups (and you can see how JWD flattens out a bit from T-3 on, after reviews came out - those look to have limited sales)
• Venom - an extreme outlier in terms of late growth (due to some weirdness in sales and release date)
• Lightyear - tickets didn't go on sale until 9 days before opening, so were playing catch-up into the last week, creating very high growth
• Minions - has been crushing all of them since T-7, including known outliers Venom and LY

Growth rate almost never goes down in the last week, at worst it flattens out up to T-1, but still increases from T-1 to T-0. Even the low end pessimistic projections from here still clear $7M for Thursday, a reasonable projection can get you to $8M, and because this is uncharted territory for growth, the true ceiling may even pushing up to $9M

Edited June 29, 2022 by M37

[Alex SciChannel]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

No, those titles were showing their weakness well before those last few days; there's a reason I was lower than most here on Elvis in that last week and have been banging the drum for Minions since the weekend sales tracking numbers were posted. The phrase I keep using is growth rate, that is the % increase in total sales, because it projects how much those final days will increase

 

Using data from @Porthos in Sacto, but its the same pattern/math to look for in all tracking samples. Here's some select films, and their growth rate over the last 10 days (using a 3-day growth because of the smaller sample size, single day numbers are kinda bouncy).

 

 

• Strange - Had high volume of pre-sales, so a smaller % increase, but still solid volume of sales in last week
• Fast 9/Shang-Chi/JWD - All strong finishers, lots of walk-ups (and you can see how JWD flattens out a bit from T-3 on, after reviews came out - those look to have limited sales)
• Venom - an extreme outlier in terms of late growth (due to some weirdness in sales and release date)
• Lightyear - tickets didn't go on sale until 9 days before opening, so were playing catch-up into the last week, creating very high growth
• Minions - is crushing all of them, including known outliers Venom and LY

Growth rate almost never goes down in the last week, at worst it flattens out up to T-1, but still increases from T-1 to T-0. Even the low end pessimistic projections from here still clear $7M for Thursday, a reasonable projection can get you to $8M, and because this is uncharted territory for growth, the true ceiling may even pushing up to $9M

Glad it's shaping up to be a good weekend for families

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

No, those titles were showing their weakness well before those last few days; there's a reason I was lower than most here on Elvis in that last week and have been banging the drum for Minions since the weekend sales tracking numbers were posted. The phrase I keep using is growth rate, that is the % increase in total sales, because it projects how much those final days will increase

 

Using data from @Porthos in Sacto, but its the same pattern/math to look for in all tracking samples. Here's some select films, and their growth rate over the last 10 days (using a 3-day growth because of the smaller sample size, single day numbers are kinda bouncy).

 

 

• Strange - Had high volume of pre-sales, so a smaller % increase, but still solid volume of sales in last week
• Fast 9/Shang-Chi/JWD - All strong finishers, lots of walk-ups (and you can see how JWD flattens out a bit from T-3 on, after reviews came out - those look to have limited sales)
• Venom - an extreme outlier in terms of late growth (due to some weirdness in sales and release date)
• Lightyear - tickets didn't go on sale until 9 days before opening, so were playing catch-up into the last week, creating very high growth
• Minions - has been crushing all of them since T-7, including known outliers Venom and LY

Growth rate almost never goes down in the last week, at worst it flattens out up to T-1, but still increases from T-1 to T-0. Even the low end pessimistic projections from here still clear $7M for Thursday, a reasonable projection can get you to $8M, and because this is uncharted territory for growth, the true ceiling may even pushing up to $9M

Is a 100M 4-day possible with an internal multiplier from 8M-8.5M previews?

Edited June 29, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Sandro Mazzola]

40 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Is a 100M 4-day possible with an internal multiplier from 8M-8.5M previews?

 

Over 100m is possible from previews of over 7m.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Sandro Mazzola

[Eric Duncan]

On 6/28/2022 at 1:11 AM, Eric the Minion said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	665	28706	2.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 179

 

Comp

3.715x of Jungle Cruise T-3 (10.03M)

0.477x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-3 (2.98M)

1.023x of Lightyear T-3 (5.32M)

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	166	967	33151	2.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 302

 

Comp

4.063x of Jungle Cruise T-2 (10.97M)

0.545x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-2 (3.41M)

1.210x of Lightyear T-2 (6.29M)