The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

Nope Megaplex

 

T-7 Thursday(44 showings): 134/14880

0.912x Halloween Kills T-7 (4.42M)

0.717x Suicide Squad T-7 (2.94M)

 

T-8 Friday(58 showings): 70/12233

0.483x Halloween Kills T-8 (8.69M)

0.493x Suicide Squad T-8 (3.94M)

 

T-9 Saturday(58 showings): 33/12233

0.623x Halloween Kills T-9 (10.78M)

 

T-10 Sunday(52 showings): 10/11331

0.526x Halloween Kills T-10 (4.87M)

[Inceptionzq]

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 Thursday(112 showings): 3624/17592 ATP: $15.89

 

T-8 Friday(149 showings): 3100/25056 ATP: $16.39

 

T-9 Saturday(160 showings): 3020/26653 ATP: $15.45

 

T-10 Sunday(129 showings): 1527/21916 ATP: $15.55

[Tinalera]

36 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

Ran my numbers but I’m away from my comp so I won’t post them tonight but man, Paws of Fury is looking bad for the weekend. Maybe even sub $5M. Crawdads and Mrs. Harris are looking like $12M and $1M, based on my comps.

I took a quick glimpse at some of my SW/Toronto Ontario theatres for Tonight and tomorrow and......yieeeeee theres very few tickets sold. Some of my normal Toronto theatres aren't even carrying it at all. I don't want to judge, but this definitely looks like it prolly should have gone right to streaming, at least from what Im seeing. It is not a good look.

[M37]

21 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Megaplex

 

T-7 Thursday(44 showings): 134/14880

 

18 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 Thursday(112 showings): 3624/17592 ATP: $15.89

A little market variation I see

[Tinalera]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

 

A little market variation I see

Its similar to a bit of weirdness with my SW/Toronto-thursdays are okay, Friday cineplex hasn't even dropped more inventory with movie a week away. I don't have comps to judge Canadian, but Im still wondering why this wasn't a fall/Halloween release, maybe the summer because it seems kind of offbeat/bit of parody? Gotta wait and see, but so far my theatres are kind of in a holding pattern sales wise

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The walkups for the 3pm Crawdads was very strong. The walkups for the 610 showing are currently very weak. 13 total seats taken right now, which actually in some regard is decent for a movie like this?

[WrathOfHan]

I don't get why Focus is dumping Mrs. Harris in less than 1k theaters with a minuscule marketing campaign when it sounds like a crowdpleaser. Vengeance will suffer in a couple weeks too.

 

Paws of Fury going sub-5M is the perfect result for a movie initially scheduled for Early 2017  

[Old Spice]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't get why Focus is dumping Mrs. Harris in less than 1k theaters with a minuscule marketing campaign when it sounds like a crowdpleaser. Vengeance will suffer in a couple weeks too.

 

Paws of Fury going sub-5M is the perfect result for a movie initially scheduled for Early 2017  

Early 2017?! Yikes. That's some stale bread.

[vale9001]

In the last 3 hours for crawdads you have gone from 12M to 25M.😅

Edited July 14, 2022 by vale9001

[vale9001]

Everything from 12 to 25 would be from good to great for a movie with a 24M budget. 

The Point is if it can be a Solid success for the next almost empty month or just a movie making good for itself

Edited July 14, 2022 by vale9001

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

6 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

In the last 3 hours for crawdads you have gone from 12M to 25M.😅

It was always going to be tracking and projections.. just a matter of how much. 

[vale9001]

Just now, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It was always going to be tracking and projections.. just a matter of how much. 

Of course I'm not criticizing anyone but certainly it has been a fun game in the last hours. From 12 to 25 there is like a 100% difference. It's not like "Thor is making 140 or 155" with a 10% difference. 

[Shawn Robbins]

Just eyeballing local sales, I won't be surprised if Crawdads over-performs... but I'm also in the south, so over-indexing sales is just as likely.

[Tinalera]

Wonder if Crawdads ends up becoming what I call "sneaky gem" movies that comes out and wom really picks up on it, and becomes a "have you seen crawdads yet?", and becomes one of those "wow Im hearing so much about it from friends I have to see this" type of film. 

[ringedmortality]

What's the chance Crawdads ends up as number 2 this weekend

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

 

A little market variation I see

I think its more due to chain variance. Drafthouse has a very pre-sales heavy crowd, so I don't really pay attention to it till the final days as it is supposed to overindex heavily for smaller openers and underindex for bigger openers 

[LegendaryBen]

13 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

What's the chance Crawdads ends up as number 2 this weekend

20% unless Minions drops huge or if Crawdads opens in the mid-to-high 20s+

Edited July 15, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/12/2022 at 6:16 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Paws of Fury Harkins T-3 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
97	15,931	54	0.34%	$548	$10.15

 

Low. The only comparable number I have is The Bad Guys T-1.

At 5:30 PM, 841 sold for it so far. May be 1.1-1.2K final. That will be good for $500-550K ish.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Where the Crawdads Sing Harkins T-1 Day

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	5	731	493	67.44%	$6,203	$12.58
Thursday	99	16,404	941	5.74%	$10,307	$10.95
Total	104	17,135	1,434	8.37%	$16,510	$11.51

 

Comps

1.169x of The Black Phone - $3.5M

0.392x of Elvis - $1.47M

 

Added +512 yesterday, which is almost what TBP did but Early access showings mess it up. I am expecting around 3.8-4K final, which will be around $1.9-2.1M approx with both the comps I am using. Including Early Access screenings.

At 5:45PM, 2381 sold for THU. Probably 3K final. Not good amount of walkins. $2M incl early access may be.

[Eric Atreides]

22 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	452	13040	3.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 32

 

Comp

0.451x of F9 T-8 (3.2M)

0.902x of Space Jam 2 T-8 (11.82M)

0.811x of Halloween Kills T-8 (3.94M)

0.938x of Scream T-8 (3.28M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	493	13040	3.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.467x of F9 T-7 (3.32M)

0.763x of Space Jam 2 T-7 (10M)

0.803x of Halloween Kills T-7 (3.89M)

0.980x of Scream T-7 (3.43M)