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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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23 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 42 24 6629 0.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

1.333x of Jungle Cruise T-15 (3.6M)

0.203x of Minions 2 T-15 (2.19M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 42 28 6629 0.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.737x of Jungle Cruise T-14 (1.99M)

0.228x of Minions 2 T-14 (2.45M)

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5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 5:45PM, 2381 sold for THU. Probably 3K final. Not good amount of walkins. $2M incl early access may be.

Where the Crawdads Sing Harkins Final

Day Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Early Access 5 731 493 67.44% $6,203 $12.58
Thursday 99 16,344 2,968 18.16% $31,188 $10.51
             
Total 104 17,075 3,461 20.27% $37,391 $10.80

 

Comps

0.617x of The Black Phone - $1.85M

0.462x of Elvis - $1.62M

 

I think it will likely be around $1.9-2.1M.

 

FRI doesn't look too great. Sub $15M weekend is likely.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 5:30 PM, 841 sold for it so far. May be 1.1-1.2K final. That will be good for $550K ish.

Paws of Fury Harkins Final

Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
94 15,492 1,067 6.89% $10,505 $9.85

 

Comps

0.041x of Minions 2 Gross - $437K

 

I think $500K is more likely. $7-8M weekend.

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4 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 65 493 13040 3.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.467x of F9 T-7 (3.32M)

0.763x of Space Jam 2 T-7 (10M)

0.803x of Halloween Kills T-7 (3.89M)

0.980x of Scream T-7 (3.43M)

Nope is looking like it could open in the 30’s then, or half of Us. Hopefully things pick up, big time. 

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17 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Stop with this. The verified score is specifically designed for people who bought a ticket for the movie. If you did not buy a ticket, you are not part of the verified score. Do you really think there's this massive group of people who decided to go to an early showing of a movie they hate specifically to destroy its RT score? That's just ridiculous.

Uh you can exploit that number . . . .I know cuase iit happened with the gaga movie and swayed a betting marke.,  Lets jsut say refunds are a thing.  NO comment on current discussion just dont think that is some magic full proof number.  

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On 7/14/2022 at 1:52 AM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

86

13136

13691

555

4.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-8

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

TSS

119.10

 

54

466

 

0/86

14550/15016

3.10%

 

2352

23.60%

 

4.88m

LTBC

37.86

 

107

1466

 

0/168

26584/28050

5.23%

 

7712

7.20%

 

4.39m

NTTD

47.35

 

134

1172

 

0/144

21181/22353

5.24%

 

3737

14.85%

 

2.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-8

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

F9

41.12

 

100

1323

 

0/84

11791/13114

10.09%

 

4407

12.34%

 

3.06m

Nope (adj)

 

49

544

 

0/72

10936/11480

4.74%

 

 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      90/3959  [2.27% sold]
Matinee:    22/859  [2.56% | 3.96% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

86

13078

13691

613

4.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

58

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-7

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

TSS

118.34

 

52

518

 

0/87

14606/15124

3.43%

 

2352

26.06%

 

4.85m

LTBC

37.26

 

179

1645

 

0/173

26553/28198

5.83%

 

7712

7.95%

 

4.32m

NTTD

47.08

 

130

1302

 

0/144

21051/22353

5.82%

 

3737

16.40%

 

2.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-7 Adjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-7

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

F9

42.72

 

91

1414

 

0/86

11869/13283

10.65%

 

4407

13.71%

 

3.18m

Nope (adj)

 

60

604

 

0/72

10876/11480

5.26%

 

 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      97/3959  [2.45% sold]
Matinee:    23/859  [2.68% | 3.75% of all tickets sold]

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On 7/8/2022 at 8:56 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

US showtime sample for 7/8/22 weekend

 

Movie Theaters Shows Change* Standard PLF IMAX 3D
Thor 4 3,540 194,969   154,911 40,058 5,964 23,730
Minions 2 3,442 96,027 -24.93% 89,388 6,639 0 6,187
Top Gun 2 2,985 41,333 -29.58% 41,195 138 6 0
Elvis 3,059 34,088 -29.15% 34,013 75 0 0
Jurassic World 3 2,716 31,368 -32.83% 30,949 419 0 338
The Black Phone 2,271 31,189 -29.61% 31,134 55 0 0
Lightyear 1,764 19,656 -55.81% 19,512 144 0 98
Mr. Malcolm's List 1,002 4,472 -71.82% 4,464 8 0 0
Everything Everywhere 181 1,113 -59.36% 1,113 0 0 0
Marcel the Shell 40 695   695 0 0 0

*Updated reporting to exclude previews from week two change*

 

OW shows comps

Thor 4 - 194,969 (3,540 TC) (40,058 PLF)

 - DS2 - 229,917 (3,660) (42,543)

 - TG2 - 182,709 (3,834) (16,305)

 - NWH - 206,421 (3,340) (28,624)

 

T-1 Week

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 233 (231 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 29,677 (2,121 TC)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

 - Ambulance - 27,883 (2,198)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

Paws of Fury - 31,294 (2,060 TC)

 - The Bad Guys - 33,132 (2,264)

 - Addams Family - 33,520 (2,461)

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris - 7,844 (572 TC)

 - Spencer - 8,816 (703)

 - Family Camp - 8,851 (622)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Nope - 8,442 (2,194) (2,037 PLF)

 - Eternals - 9,541 (2,473) (2,172)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177) (1,890)

 - Ghostbusters - 9,550 (2,316) (1,979)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Super-Pets - 861 (188 TC)

(Pretty useless with only 188 theaters posting so far)

 

T-4 Weeks Previews

Easter Sunday - 2,853 (1,085 TC)

 - Black Phone - 2,277 (887)

 - Downton Abbey - 3,057 (1,982)

 - Father Stu - 3,871 (1,325)

 

 

If anyone has any feedback on the showtime report (changes/ideas/different layout/stop doing it/etc), please let me know!

Movie TC Shows Change* Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Thor 4 3,530 116,663 -26.99% 93,610 739.43 23,053 4,609 10,990
Minions 2 3,338 69,752 -27.36% 67,037 480.37 2,715 0 2,548
Crawdads Sing 3,126 53,855   53,739   116 0 0
Paws of Fury 2,971 50,995   49,434   1,561 0 0
Top Gun 2 2,821 34,937 -15.47% 34,780 375.16 157 6 0
Elvis 2,785 27,861 -18.27% 27,791 328.01 70 0 0
The Black Phone 2,083 23,098 -25.94% 23,048 249.50 50 0 0
Jurassic World 3 2,294 22,516 -28.22% 22,254 274.14 262 0 205
Mrs. Harris 935 13,334   13,322   12 0 0
Lightyear 1,058 7,900 -59.81% 7,885 156.75 15 0 9
The Gray Man 410 6,113   6,104   9 0 0
Gabby Giffords 265 3,922   3,922   0 0 0
Marcel the Shell 136 2,064 196.98% 2,064 463.55 0 0 0
Mr. Malcolm's List 148 609 -86.38% 609 57.05 0 0 0

*Updated reporting to exclude previews from week two change*

 

OW shows comps

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 284 (232 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 53,855 (3,126 TC)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935)

 - Ambulance - 51,310 (2,947)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762 (2,985)

 - Old - 56,613 (2,958)

Paws of Fury - 50,995 (2,971 TC)

 - Sing 2 - 55,966 (3,331)

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris - 13,334 (935 TC)

 - Wolf and the Lion - 12,069 (938)

 - Family Camp - 13,401 (851)

 - Joe Bell - 13,994 (1,083)

The Gray Man - 6,113 (410 TC)

 - The Contractor - 6,356 (478)

 - Titane - 6,186 (521)

 

T-1 Week

Nope - 52,246 (2,594) (12,231 PLF)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,798 IMAX)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672) (11,420)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764) (6,217)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Super-Pets - 7,321 (1,843 TC)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

Vengeance - 838 (455 TC)

 - Nightmare Alley - 980 (567)

 - Journal for Jordan - 882 (353)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Easter Sunday - 4,346 (1,586 TC)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

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49 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie TC Shows Change* Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Thor 4 3,530 116,663 -26.99% 93,610 739.43 23,053 4,609 10,990
Minions 2 3,338 69,752 -27.36% 67,037 480.37 2,715 0 2,548
Crawdads Sing 3,126 53,855   53,739   116 0 0
Paws of Fury 2,971 50,995   49,434   1,561 0 0
Top Gun 2 2,821 34,937 -15.47% 34,780 375.16 157 6 0
Elvis 2,785 27,861 -18.27% 27,791 328.01 70 0 0
The Black Phone 2,083 23,098 -25.94% 23,048 249.50 50 0 0
Jurassic World 3 2,294 22,516 -28.22% 22,254 274.14 262 0 205
Mrs. Harris 935 13,334   13,322   12 0 0
Lightyear 1,058 7,900 -59.81% 7,885 156.75 15 0 9
The Gray Man 410 6,113   6,104   9 0 0
Gabby Giffords 265 3,922   3,922   0 0 0
Marcel the Shell 136 2,064 196.98% 2,064 463.55 0 0 0
Mr. Malcolm's List 148 609 -86.38% 609 57.05 0 0 0

*Updated reporting to exclude previews from week two change*

 

OW shows comps

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 284 (232 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 53,855 (3,126 TC)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935)

 - Ambulance - 51,310 (2,947)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762 (2,985)

 - Old - 56,613 (2,958)

Paws of Fury - 50,995 (2,971 TC)

 - Sing 2 - 55,966 (3,331)

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris - 13,334 (935 TC)

 - Wolf and the Lion - 12,069 (938)

 - Family Camp - 13,401 (851)

 - Joe Bell - 13,994 (1,083)

The Gray Man - 6,113 (410 TC)

 - The Contractor - 6,356 (478)

 - Titane - 6,186 (521)

 

T-1 Week

Nope - 52,246 (2,594) (12,231 PLF)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,798 IMAX)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672) (11,420)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764) (6,217)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Super-Pets - 7,321 (1,843 TC)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

Vengeance - 838 (455 TC)

 - Nightmare Alley - 980 (567)

 - Journal for Jordan - 882 (353)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Easter Sunday - 4,346 (1,586 TC)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

Guessing that PSA = Per Show Average ($/show)? Thanks for adding that!

 

And why TF (and where?) is Paws of Fury getting 50K shows??? For a movie that's not even going to sniff $10M, that's a lot of wasted screen space that could have been given to better performing features - its going to average less than 15 people per showing at that level of play.

I know better than most about the secondary considerations that go into booking films (market share, handshake deals/scratching the backs of studios, etc), but it just frustrates me that theaters so often leave money on the table by being stuck in an old school mentality, not having sophisticated their tracking and allocation methods to maximize revenue, have supply match demand **Sorry, just had to vent, end of rant**

 

 

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On 7/14/2022 at 8:12 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Easter Sunday T-21 Jax 6 15 0 5 2,232 0.22%
    Phx 3 9 0 0 1,134 0.00%
    Ral 7 16 -4 0 1,976 0.00%
  Total   16 40 -4 5 5,342 0.09%
Nope T-7 Jax 6 49 4 125 8,253 1.51%
    Phx 6 20 11 205 4,344 4.72%
    Ral 8 28 18 196 3,670 5.34%
  Total   20 97 33 526 16,267 3.23%
Super Pets T-14 Jax 6 38 0 6 4,934 0.12%
    Phx 5 23 0 10 3,483 0.29%
    Ral 7 24 4 7 3,404 0.21%
  Total   18 85 4 23 11,821 0.19%
Vengeance T-14 Jax 3 4 2 2 286 0.70%
    Phx 3 6 0 0 850 0.00%
    Ral 4 4 0 0 317 0.00%
  Total   10 14 2 2 1,453 0.14%

 

Nope T-7 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .912x (3.78m)

 - NTTD - .767x (3.99m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.33x (5.45m)

 - F9 - .545x (3.87m)

 - Morbius - .67x (3.82m)

 - Dune - .64x (3.26m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.218x (5.91m)

 

Super Pets T-14 comps

 - Minions 2 - .086x (923k)

 - Sonic 2 - .072x (357k)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Easter Sunday T-20 Jax 6 15 0 5 2,232 0.22%
    Phx 3 9 0 0 1,134 0.00%
    Ral 7 16 0 0 1,976 0.00%
  Total   16 40 0 5 5,342 0.09%
Nope T-6 Jax 6 49 17 142 8,253 1.72%
    Phx 6 20 6 211 4,344 4.86%
    Ral 8 28 31 227 3,670 6.19%
  Total   20 97 54 580 16,267 3.57%
Super Pets T-13 Jax 6 38 2 8 4,934 0.16%
    Phx 5 23 3 13 3,483 0.37%
    Ral 7 24 0 7 3,404 0.21%
  Total   18 85 5 28 11,821 0.24%
Vengeance T-13 Jax 3 4 0 2 286 0.70%
    Phx 3 6 2 2 850 0.24%
    Ral 4 4 0 0 317 0.00%
  Total   10 14 2 4 1,453 0.28%

 

Nope T-6 comps

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.36x (5.59m)

 - F9 - .557x (3.95m)

 - Morbius - .69x (3.95m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Halloween Kills - missed

 

Super Pets T-13 comps

 - Minions 2 - .098x (1.05m)

 - Sonic 2 - .078x (387k)

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1 hour ago, M37 said:

Guessing that PSA = Per Show Average ($/show)? Thanks for adding that!

 

And why TF (and where?) is Paws of Fury getting 50K shows??? For a movie that's not even going to sniff $10M, that's a lot of wasted screen space that could have been given to better performing features - its going to average less than 15 people per showing at that level of play.

I know better than most about the secondary considerations that go into booking films (market share, handshake deals/scratching the backs of studios, etc), but it just frustrates me that theaters so often leave money on the table by being stuck in an old school mentality, not having sophisticated their tracking and allocation methods to maximize revenue, have supply match demand **Sorry, just had to vent, end of rant**

 

 

I don't think 50k is that crazy.  One screen for a weekend would be 3+5+5+5=18 shows?  And with 3,000 theaters that's already 54k shows

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1 hour ago, M37 said:

Guessing that PSA = Per Show Average ($/show)? Thanks for adding that!

 

And why TF (and where?) is Paws of Fury getting 50K shows??? For a movie that's not even going to sniff $10M, that's a lot of wasted screen space that could have been given to better performing features - its going to average less than 15 people per showing at that level of play.

I know better than most about the secondary considerations that go into booking films (market share, handshake deals/scratching the backs of studios, etc), but it just frustrates me that theaters so often leave money on the table by being stuck in an old school mentality, not having sophisticated their tracking and allocation methods to maximize revenue, have supply match demand **Sorry, just had to vent, end of rant**

 

 

 

At 12 screens and higher this weekend (where it's likely booked), a single 12th-24th size screen is not gonna break the theater, and will make all subscribers happy that they have all the opening weekend wide options.  I mean, 60 seats 5x day is 300 seats a day available, and they'll probably sell 20% of them, which is all they'd do with a 5th screen of Thor or a 4th screen of Minions...

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-mack-rita/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/14/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
7/22/2022 Nope $40,000,000 – $60,000,000   $100,000,000 – $175,000,000   Universal Pictures
7/29/2022 DC League of Super-Pets $40,000,000 – $60,000,000   $120,000,000 – $210,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Vengeance         Focus Features
8/5/2022 Bullet Train $28,000,000 – $34,000,000   $85,000,000 – $120,000,000   Sony Pictures
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday $14,000,000 – $19,000,000   $48,000,000 – $70,000,000   Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3         Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Mack & Rita $3,000,000 – $7,000,000   $8,000,000 – $25,000,000   Gravitas Ventures
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Nope

SW/Toronto Ontario t-7 (T-0 friday)

 

NOPE # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 20 66 158 14992 15150 0.0105
Fri 5 20 181 6560 6741 0.0275

 

Comps (all I have even if different demo)

 

X1.069 Lightyear (800 thousand Canada only, 21.38 Canada/US)

X.5539 Minions 2 (1.78 million Canada only, 26.58 Canada/US)

 

Nope doing some spooky stuff here in Ontario. Somehow lost 90 seats sold and now Friday has a higher sales percentage despite having less shows and seats than Thursday.

 

To Quote the Trailer, looking at this spookiness 

 

"Nope"

 

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46 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I don't think 50k is that crazy.  One screen for a weekend would be 3+5+5+5=18 shows?  And with 3,000 theaters that's already 54k shows

Oh, these include Thursday? Ok, that’s at little better, and it’s a family movie from a major studio so it’s going wider then it probably should, plus playing late evening shows by default that it probably doesn’t need …

 

… but also just doesn’t sit right. Like I’m sure there are smaller locations have to dropping shows of TGM/JWD/BP/Elvis to fit a full screen of Paws

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7 hours ago, Borf the Borf said:

Uh you can exploit that number . . . .I know cuase iit happened with the gaga movie and swayed a betting marke.,  Lets jsut say refunds are a thing.  NO comment on current discussion just dont think that is some magic full proof number.  

I don't think these are bullet proof numbers but (1) House of Gucci's vRT% isn't out of wack with the films vRT% (if anything it's low given that HoG was clearly a box office hit given release circumstances for adult films). and (2) if you just searched twitter for "verified rotten tomatoes" you saw chatter actively telling fans purchasing tickets (so perhaps a counter-balancing effect?) and give a verified rating for that film in a way I didn't see replicated for other films. You can probably do some sort of quick social media trends search to see if people are trying to exploit the number. 
However, I think the obvious explanation for discrepancies remains implict demographics of voters versus film audience


"fandom energy" is already a clear source of error for these polls but they're mostly pretty good at reflecting cinemascore. 

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6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Oh, these include Thursday? Ok, that’s at little better, and it’s a family movie from a major studio so it’s going wider then it probably should, plus playing late evening shows by default that it probably doesn’t need …

 

… but also just doesn’t sit right. Like I’m sure there are smaller locations have to dropping shows of TGM/JWD/BP/Elvis to fit a full screen of Paws

Yep, all new releases include preview shows.  I finally started removing them from the week two % change.   I don't know how the contracts work, but I'd guess that most studios would require a full screen at least the first week(end).  

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6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I've never even heard of Mack & Rita until now lol. Yep, the end of summer is upon us.

I got the trailer for this in front of Elvis. My mom worships Diane Keaton, and even she thought this looked terrible.

 

 

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