The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

122

1796

6.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

144

2004

7.19%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
612	53	17420	3.51%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	470
Cinemarks sold	57
Regals sold	51
Harkins sold	34

 

1.22x Scream T-6 (4.28M)

1.61x Halloween Kills T-6 (7.89M)

1.35x Suicide Squad T-6 (5.55M)

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

137

1796

7.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

154

2004

7.68%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
687	75	17420	3.94%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	521
Cinemarks sold	67
Regals sold	56
Harkins sold	43

 

1.70x Halloween Kills T-5 (8.33M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Megaplex

 

T-6 Thursday(44 showings): 149(+15)/14880

0.621x Scream T-6 (2.17M)

0.955x Halloween Kills T-6 (4.63M)

0.674x Suicide Squad T-6 (2.76M)

 

T-7 Friday(58 showings): 74(+4)/12233

0.463x Scream T-7 (4.60M)

0.356x Halloween Kills T-7 (6.41M)

0.481x Suicide Squad T-7 (3.84M)

 

T-8 Saturday(58 showings): 35(+2)/12233

0.538x Scream T-8 (5.48M)

0.417x Halloween Kills T-8 (7.22M)

 

T-9 Sunday(52 showings): 12(+2)11331

0.800x Scream T-9 (5.17M)

0.571x Halloween Kills T-9 (5.29M)

Nope Megaplex

 

T-5 Thursday(44 showings): 173(+24)/14880

0.972x Halloween Kills T-5 (4.76M)

 

T-6 Friday(58 showings): 79(+5)/12233

0.313x Halloween Kills T-6 (5.65M)

 

T-7 Saturday(58 showings): 56(+21)/12233

0.549x Halloween Kills T-7 (9.51M)

 

T-8 Sunday(52 showings): 20(+8)11331

0.952x Halloween Kills T-8 (8.81M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-6 Thursday(112 showings): 4112(+488)/17592 ATP: $15.84

1.58x Scream T-6 (5.53M)

 

T-7 Friday(149 showings): 3672(+572)/25056 ATP: $16.31

1.82x Scream T-7 (17.95M)

 

T-8 Saturday(160 showings): 3237(+217)/26653 ATP: $15.40

2.57x Scream T-8 (26.11M)

 

T-9 Sunday(129 showings): 1692(+165)/21916 ATP: $15.46

2.35x Scream T-9 (15.18M)

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-5 Thursday(112 showings): 4475(+363)/17592 ATP: $15.84

 

T-6 Friday(149 showings): 4165(+493)/25056 ATP: $16.26

 

T-7 Saturday(160 showings): 3747(+510)/26653 ATP: $15.32

 

T-8 Sunday(129 showings): 1903(+211)/21916 ATP: $15.40

[filmlover]

Bad news for those who hoped that we were at the end of the line (at least for now) re: Early Access events: Bullet Train will be having early shows that Tuesday (August 2).

 

Bullet Train: Early Access Screening at an AMC Theatre near you. (amctheatres.com)

[Eric Duncan]

On 7/15/2022 at 11:04 PM, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	544	13040	4.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp

0.477x of F9 T-6 (3.38M)

0.762x of Space Jam 2 T-6 (9.98M)

0.800x of Halloween Kills T-6 (3.88M)

0.994x of Scream T-6 (3.48M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	599	13040	4.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp

0.463x of F9 T-5 (3.29M)

0.690x of Space Jam 2 T-5 (9.04M)

0.781x of Halloween Kills T-5 (3.79M)

0.982x of Scream T-5 (3.44M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 7/15/2022 at 11:07 PM, Eric Odinson said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	33	6629	0.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.717x of Jungle Cruise T-13 (1.94M)

0.229x of Minions 2 T-13 (2.46M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	37	6629	0.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.755x of Jungle Cruise T-12 (2.04M)

0.201x of Minions 2 T-12 (2.16M)

[Borf the Borf]

Is that Alamo an over index or is the comp bad?  That seems like a decent opening if it achieved that.  

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/16/2022 at 11:18 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Harkins Friday

 

Crawdads - 7982/35839 (206 showings) $79,551

 

For THU Harkins was 1.55%. FRI shall be around 1.6-1.7 ish. That will give $4.7-5M.

 

Paws of Fury - 3736/29852 (175 showings) $35,979

 

THU was 2.05%. FRI shall be around 2.1%. That will give $1.7M ish.

Harkins Saturday

 

Crawdads - 9049/38921 (206 showings) $88,438

 

Y'day Harkins was 1.61%, assuming 1.61-1.67% today gives $5.3-5.5M.

 

Sunday pre-sales are quite good. 2193/38114 (200 showings) $21,028, just 15% down from SAT. That should normally mean better hold than 15% but can it really have a sub 15% drop? 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Inceptionzq]

37 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

Is that Alamo an over index or is the comp bad?  That seems like a decent opening if it achieved that.  

Alamo Drafthouse will overindex. It’ll, of course, overindex with Black populations. The NYC market usually ends up around 10% or less of the total presales run, but it’s currently at almost 16%.
 

Also, I think Drafthouse tends to attract those that support auteur filmmakers, like Jordan Peele, more than the average moviegoer.

[vale9001]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Harkins Saturday

 

Crawdads - 9049/38921 (206 showings) $88,438

 

Y'day Harkins was 1.61%, assuming 1.61-1.67% today gives $5.3-5.5M.

 

Sunday pre-sales are quite good. 2193/38114 (200 showings) $21,028, just 15% down from SAT. That should normally mean better hold than 15% but can it really have a sub 15% drop? 

 

a theater I'm tracking "Cinemark Perkins Rowe and XD" in Baton Rouge -Louisiana for saturday at this time got 376 tickets sold, for sunday at the same time has 371 tickets sold.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13010	13691	681	4.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

68

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	122.92		36	554		0/87	14570/15124	3.66%		2352	28.95%		5.04m
LTBC	37.32		180	1825		0/173	26373/28198	6.47%		7712	8.83%		4.33m
NTTD	47.72		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		3737	18.22%		2.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-6 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	44.88		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		4407	15.20%		3.34m
Nope (adj)	—		66	670		0/72	10810/11480	5.84%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     117/3959  [2.96% sold]
Matinee:    25/859  [2.91% | 3.67% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	12930	13691	761	5.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

80

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	124.75		56	610		0/87	14514/15124	4.03%		2352	32.36%		5.11m
LTBC	37.90		183	2008		0/173	26190/28198	7.12%		7712	9.87%		4.40m
NTTD	49.22		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		3737	20.36%		3.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-5 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	46.51		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		4407	16.95%		3.46m
Nope (adj)	—		77	747		0/72	10733/11480	6.51%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     129/3959  [3.26% sold]
Matinee:     30/859  [3.49% | 3.94% of all tickets sold]

[Borf the Borf]

3 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse will overindex. It’ll, of course, overindex with Black populations. The NYC market usually ends up around 10% or less of the total presales run, but it’s currently at almost 16%.
 

Also, I think Drafthouse tends to attract those that support auteur filmmakers, like Jordan Peele, more than the average moviegoer.

Ah ok ,so is Alamo just hte Austin location?  I wouldnt think kit of it as a black market , but more autuer i could see. 

[vale9001]

About Nope: In these circustances for an original and not sequel movie even "only" 35M would be a really really great opening. 

Edited July 17, 2022 by vale9001

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/16/2022 at 9:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Easter Sunday	T-19	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	4	12	2	2	1,503	0.13%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		17	42	2	7	5,430	0.13%
Nope	T-5	Jax	6	49	10	152	8,253	1.84%
		Phx	6	20	14	225	4,344	5.18%
		Ral	8	28	24	251	3,670	6.84%
	Total		20	97	48	628	16,267	3.86%
Super Pets	T-12	Jax	6	38	0	8	4,934	0.16%
		Phx	5	23	2	15	3,483	0.43%
		Ral	7	24	0	7	3,404	0.21%
	Total		18	85	2	30	11,821	0.25%
Vengeance	T-12	Jax	3	4	0	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	4	8	-2	0	992	0.00%
		Ral	4	4	0	0	317	0.00%
	Total		11	16	-2	2	1,595	0.13%

 

Nope T-5 comps

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.33x (5.44m)

 - F9 - .551x (3.91m)

 - Morbius - .7x (4m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Halloween Kills - missed

 

Super Pets T-12 comps

 - Minions 2 - .098x (1.05m)

 - Sonic 2 - .079x (395k)

 

🥱

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Easter Sunday	T-18	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	4	12	4	6	1,503	0.40%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		17	42	4	11	5,430	0.20%
Nope	T-4	Jax	6	49	32	184	8,253	2.23%
		Phx	6	20	20	245	4,344	5.64%
		Ral	8	28	31	284	3,670	7.74%
	Total		20	97	83	713	16,267	4.38%
Super Pets	T-11	Jax	6	38	4	12	4,934	0.24%
		Phx	5	23	3	18	3,483	0.52%
		Ral	7	24	3	10	3,404	0.29%
	Total		18	85	10	40	11,821	0.34%
Vengeance	T-11	Jax	3	4	0	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	4	8	2	2	992	0.20%
		Ral	4	4	1	1	317	0.32%
	Total		11	16	3	5	1,595	0.31%

 

Nope T-4 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .888x (3.68m)

 - NTTD - .718x (3.73m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.39x (5.7m)

 - F9 - .575x (4.08m)

 - Morbius - .725x (4.13m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Halloween Kills - .994x (4.82m)

 

Super Pets T-11 comps

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Sonic 2 - .102x (509k)

[Tinalera]

Nope 

SW/Toronto Ontario t-5 (T-0 Fri)

 

NOPE	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	66	253	14739	14992	0.01687
Fri	5	20	270	6290	6560	0.04115

 

Comps

 

x .0379 Minions 2(180 Thousand Canada only, 2.23 Million Can/US)

x 1.194 Lightyear (890 Thousand Canada Only, 20 Million Can/US)

x .5660 Thor 4 (1.83 Million Canada only, 39 Million Can/US)

[Inceptionzq]

4 hours ago, Borf the Borf said:

Ah ok ,so is Alamo just hte Austin location?  I wouldnt think kit of it as a black market , but more autuer i could see. 

No I track all their locations. When I referenced the NYC market, I was only talking about the Drafthouse locations there not the market as a whole.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/16/2022 at 10:20 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sat)	PLF	4	44	75	520	14.42%	$13.13	$984.41
		Standard	62	326	739	7,246	10.20%	$10.49	$7,752.43
	Total		66	370	814	7,766	10.48%	$10.73	$8,736.84
T-5	Nope	PLF	21	39	201	5,307	3.79%	$15.60	$3,135.84
		Standard	22	6	68	2,875	2.37%	$10.77	$732.24
	Total		43	45	269	8,182	3.29%	$14.38	$3,868.08

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sat)	N	35	109	254	4,201	6.05%	$13.37	$3,396.88
		Y	31	261	560	3,565	15.71%	$9.54	$5,339.96
	Total		66	370	814	7,766	10.48%	$10.73	$8,736.84
T-0	Paws of Fury (Sat)	N	20	31	42	2,034	2.06%	$12.22	$513.40
		Y	30	258	382	3,051	12.52%	$9.02	$3,445.55
	Total		50	289	424	5,085	8.34%	$9.34	$3,958.95
T-5	Nope	N	33	38	217	6,279	3.46%	$15.28	$3,316.48
		Y	10	7	52	1,903	2.73%	$10.61	$551.60
	Total		43	45	269	8,182	3.29%	$14.38	$3,868.08

 

Early numbers for Friday are very disappointing .  I think for Paws of Fury the sales were just too low and made the multipliers wacky (that and only having Minions available as a comp).  For Crawdads, I used the full preview gross instead of true Thursday due to Santikos not having any EA shows.  If I backed that down to the 2m, the Elvis adjusted comp for Friday drops to 5.09m and Morbius to 5.04m.  Moving forward though!

 

Nope T-5 comps

 - TG2 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 - JW3 - missed

 

For final Saturday presales, Paws came in almost exactly at my number, but Crawdads was on the lighter side.  

 

Crawdads Sat unadjusted comp

 - Elvis - .325x (3.23m)

 

Paws Sat unadjusted comp

 - Minions - .067x (2.185m)

 

Adjusting for the current estimates, Paws would be 2.6m and Crawdads would be 5.23m.  

 

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Sun)	PLF	4	38	38	520	7.31%	$12.76	$485.02
		Standard	62	288	288	7,178	4.01%	$10.20	$2,938.18
	Total		66	326	326	7,698	4.23%	$10.50	$3,423.20

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Sun)	N	35	72	72	4,133	1.74%	$13.24	$953.22
		Y	31	254	254	3,565	7.12%	$9.72	$2,469.98
	Total		66	326	326	7,698	4.23%	$10.50	$3,423.20
T-1	Paws of Fury (Sun)	N	20	4	4	2,034	0.20%	$11.91	$47.64
		Y	30	78	78	3,051	2.56%	$9.17	$714.90
	Total		50	82	82	5,085	1.61%	$9.30	$762.54

 

I don't have any T-1 comps for either, but I'll try to do some hypotheticals.  I'll guess that Paws ends with ~275 tickets sold for an adjusted 1.73m.  For Crawdads, I'm hoping to see somewhere around 615 tickets that would put it at an adjusted 3.8m for Sunday.  

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sun)	PLF	4	41	79	520	15.19%	$13.05	$1,031.23
		Standard	62	325	613	7,178	8.54%	$9.96	$6,106.49
	Total		66	366	692	7,698	8.99%	$10.31	$7,137.72
T-4	Nope	PLF	21	23	224	5,307	4.22%	$15.60	$3,494.97
		Standard	22	10	78	2,875	2.71%	$10.94	$853.20
	Total		43	33	302	8,182	3.69%	$14.40	$4,348.17

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sun)	N	35	74	146	4,133	3.53%	$13.20	$1,927.32
		Y	31	292	546	3,565	15.32%	$9.54	$5,210.40
	Total		66	366	692	7,698	8.99%	$10.31	$7,137.72
T-0	Paws of Fury (Sun)	N	20	9	13	2,034	0.64%	$12.41	$161.31
		Y	30	143	221	3,051	7.24%	$9.00	$1,988.38
	Total		50	152	234	5,085	4.60%	$9.19	$2,149.69
T-4	Nope	N	33	32	249	6,279	3.97%	$15.22	$3,789.54
		Y	10	1	53	1,903	2.79%	$10.54	$558.63
	Total		43	33	302	8,182	3.69%	$14.40	$4,348.17

 

Nope T-4 comps

 - TG2 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 - JW3 - missed

 

Crawdads Sun unadjusted comp

 - Elvis - .297x (2.53m)

 

Paws Sun unadjusted comp

 - Minions - .047x (1.22m)

 

Crawdads had a better day than expected and Paws came out on the light side.

 

Average Fri/Sat adjusted comps using current estimates put Crawdads at 4.25m and Paws at 1.36m

[vale9001]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sun)	PLF	4	41	79	520	15.19%	$13.05	$1,031.23
		Standard	62	325	613	7,178	8.54%	$9.96	$6,106.49
	Total		66	366	692	7,698	8.99%	$10.31	$7,137.72
T-4	Nope	PLF	21	23	224	5,307	4.22%	$15.60	$3,494.97
		Standard	22	10	78	2,875	2.71%	$10.94	$853.20
	Total		43	33	302	8,182	3.69%	$14.40	$4,348.17

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sun)	N	35	74	146	4,133	3.53%	$13.20	$1,927.32
		Y	31	292	546	3,565	15.32%	$9.54	$5,210.40
	Total		66	366	692	7,698	8.99%	$10.31	$7,137.72
T-0	Paws of Fury (Sun)	N	20	9	13	2,034	0.64%	$12.41	$161.31
		Y	30	143	221	3,051	7.24%	$9.00	$1,988.38
	Total		50	152	234	5,085	4.60%	$9.19	$2,149.69
T-4	Nope	N	33	32	249	6,279	3.97%	$15.22	$3,789.54
		Y	10	1	53	1,903	2.79%	$10.54	$558.63
	Total		43	33	302	8,182	3.69%	$14.40	$4,348.17

 

Nope T-4 comps

 - TG2 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 - JW3 - missed

 

Crawdads Sun unadjusted comp

 - Elvis - .297x (2.53m)

 

Paws Sun unadjusted comp

 - Minions - .047x (1.22m)

 

Crawdads had a better day than expected and Paws came out on the light side.

 

Average Fri/Sat adjusted comps using current estimates put Crawdads at 4.25m and Paws at 1.36m

 

Box office pro just tweet for a weekend of 17M, so yeah 7.3 - 5.5- 4.2 

[WrathOfHan]

11 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse will overindex. It’ll, of course, overindex with Black populations. The NYC market usually ends up around 10% or less of the total presales run, but it’s currently at almost 16%.
 

Also, I think Drafthouse tends to attract those that support auteur filmmakers, like Jordan Peele, more than the average moviegoer.

Taking a glance, Nope is selling way better at Alamo Brooklyn than anywhere else in NYC that isn't Lincoln Square. One show has already sold out and two are near capacity; their sales are honestly on par with Empire 25 right now which is insane (non-7PM PLF shows at Empire have sold very few seats). The Manhattan Alamo is also near capacity with current showtimes but the auditoriums are significantly smaller than Brooklyn.

[Nikostar]

So what is Nope looking at right now. 35-40 million opening?