The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

Will they? Seems like social embargo review reads like Thor or DS2 did where it will be in the 60s/70s with critics 

[Flamengo81]

34 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Will they? Seems like social embargo review reads like Thor or DS2 did where it will be in the 60s/70s with critics 

It does not seem the same at all IMO. Especially when this time it mostly was actuals critics posting their opinions and not just pop bloggers and pages. The reactions seems to me like a high 80's RT (% wise) and low 80's Metacritic.

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

 high 80's RT (% wise) and low 80's Metacritic.

 

I have never seen that combo

high 80s rt probably get you low 70 on mc at best

think it could do low 90s rt and close to or at 80 on mc

Edited December 7, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Flamengo81]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

I have never seen that combo

high 80s rt probably get you low 70 on mc at best

think it could do low 90s rt and close to or at 80 on mc

I think it could be the case given the natural divisive nature of Avatar. The first one has actually a 82% RT and a 83 Metacritic, so it's definitely not impossible.

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

I think it could be the case given the natural divisive nature of Avatar. The first one has actually a 82% RT and a 83 Metacritic, so it's definitely not impossible.

 

lol what a massive example for me to forget

 

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

Will they? Seems like social embargo review reads like Thor or DS2 did where it will be in the 60s/70s with critics 

The review reaction definitely lean closer to TGM than DS2/thor 4

[Porthos]

First real round of screen expansion tonight locally in the land of tomatoes.

 

Only a few theaters have bumped up their screens, but so far the 2D/3D split for new showings is:

 

2D: +21 showings

3D: +18 showings

 

Isn't uniform though as two theaters had a massive 2D expansion while a couple others had a more of a 3D lean.  Complicated by the fact that the ones that did add more 3D showings than 2D didn't add all that many showings in total.  Yet.

 

No real pattern by chain, either.  But this is showing that theaters are indeed being "allowed" to add more 2D showings.  

 

(also no real pattern on age of the theater as the newest theater in the region [which should have the best quality screens/projectors] was one of the ones that had a big 2D expansion)

 

Might be more screens added between now and when I actually start my nightly prep, but thought this was of tracking interest.

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

Will they? Seems like social embargo review reads like Thor or DS2 did where it will be in the 60s/70s with critics 

Go visit the thread, just dropped a new wave of excellent reactions. 

 

Thor does have great reactions but to be fair, mostly from movie influencers. When it screened for critics, reactions was mixed.

 

Avatar reactions all day includes actual critics and lots of associations / awards members. I'm not promising it's impossible to ended up with 75% like DS2, but for now this seems highly unlikely.

[Eric Atreides]

23 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	2192	26516	8.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 77

 

Comp

2.460x of F9 T-10 (17.47M)

2.582x of Venom 2 T-10 (29.95M)

2.919x of No Time to Die T-10 (18.39M)

2.775x of Dune T-10 (14.15M)

3.341x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-10 (20.05M)

1.284x of Top Gun 2 T-10 (24.73M)

1.127x of Jurassic World 3 T-10 (20.29M)

2.709x of Black Adam T-10 (20.59M)

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	2326	26516	8.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 134

 

Comp

2.485x of F9 T-9 (17.64M)

2.613x of Venom 2 T-9 (30.32M)

2.819x of No Time to Die T-9 (17.76M)

2.809x of Dune T-9 (14.33M)

3.199x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-9 (19.2M)

1.293x of Top Gun 2 T-9 (24.9M)

1.153x of Jurassic World 3 T-9 (20.76M)

2.717x of Black Adam T-9 (20.65M)

[Eric Atreides]

23 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	496	11535	4.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 29

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.322x of Sing 2 T-16 (3.13M)

1.064x of Sonic 2 T-16 (6.65M)

4.550x of Minions 2 T-16 (48.92M)

33.067x of Super Pets T-16 (72.75M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.218x of Sing 2 T-16 (1.77M)

0.062x of Sonic 2 T-16 (389K)

0.266x of Minions 2 T-16 (2.86M)

1.933x of Super Pets T-16 (4.25M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	499	11535	4.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 32

 

Comp

0.320x of Sing 2 T-15 (3.11M)

1.035x of Sonic 2 T-15 (6.47M)

4.229x of Minions 2 T-15 (45.46M)

20.792x of Super Pets T-15 (45.74M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.212x of Sing 2 T-15 (1.72M)

0.066x of Sonic 2 T-15 (415K)

0.271x of Minions 2 T-15 (2.91M)

1.333x of Super Pets T-15 (2.93M)

[Eric Atreides]

23 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	13	5433	0.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

0.098x of Nope T-31 (625K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-30 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	13	5433	0.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

0.082x of Nope T-30 (527K)

[hw64]

Yeah I really do think we'll be seeing a big boost from these reactions.

 

Based off of what I'm seeing on twitter, there seems to have been a LOT of fence-sitting on this one, and a fuckton of people are now being won over.

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	145	18011	21484	3473	16.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

162

 

T-10 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	418.43		83	830		0/75	11001/11831	7.02%		2915	119.14%		21.34m
Bats	74.96		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		21117	16.45%		16.19m
FB3	381.65		82	910		0/164	23326/24236	3.75%		4456	77.94%		22.90m
TGM	68.94		190	5038		0/259	30895/35933	14.02%		11474	30.27%		13.28m
JWD	109.01		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	31.67%		19.62m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         807/7309  [11.04% sold]
Matinee:     446/2671  [16.70% | 12.84% of all tickets sold]
3D:         2379/15634  [15.22% | 68.50% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1845/7439  [24.80% | 57.01% of all tickets sold]

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	22468	26129	3661	14.01%

 

Total Showings Added Today	39
Total Seats Added Today	4645
Total Seats Sold Today	188

 

T-9 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	406.78		70	900		0/78	11142/12042	7.47%		2915	125.59%		20.75m
Bats	76.25		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		21117	17.34%		16.47m
FB3	343.11		157	1067		0/166	23301/24368	4.38%		4456	82.16%		20.59m
TGM	70.34		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	31.91%		13.55m
JWD	108.31		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	33.39%		19.50m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        849/9649  [8.80% sold]
Matinee:    460/3673  [12.52% | 12.56% of all tickets sold]
3D:         2494/17023  [14.65% | 68.12% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1926/7439  [25.89% | 56.73% of all tickets sold]

 

====

Social reactions have been out for about half a day locally (official drop was 3pm local time [about 8.5 hours ago]).

[Borobudur]

3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Go visit the thread, just dropped a new wave of excellent reactions. 

 

Thor does have great reactions but to be fair, mostly from movie influencers. When it screened for critics, reactions was mixed.

 

Avatar reactions all day includes actual critics and lots of associations / awards members. I'm not promising it's impossible to ended up with 75% like DS2, but for now this seems highly unlikely.

Ya, Avatar 2 is 3 hours 12 min long yet no one seem to critize or react negatively to its length. That is the very first sign that the movie is getting rave review. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Borobudur

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Ya, Avatar 2 is 3 hours 12 min long yet no one seem to critize or react negatively to its length. That is the very first sign that the movie is getting rave review. 

3h02 minutes is the film itself, 10 mins of credits

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-9	Jax	5	73	73	1,144	10,414	10.99%
		Phx	7	82	78	796	11,645	6.84%
		Ral	8	66	25	936	8,149	11.49%
ATP: 16.67	Total		20	221	176	2,876	30,208	9.52%
I Wanna Dance	T-16	Jax	5	15	4	20	1,454	1.38%
		Phx	4	13	2	18	1,277	1.41%
		Ral	9	25	1	31	2,579	1.20%
	Total		17	53	7	69	5,310	1.30%
Puss in Boots	T-15	Jax	5	29	0	20	3,051	0.66%
		Phx	5	25	0	13	3,084	0.42%
		Ral	6	34	5	31	3,922	0.79%
	Total		16	88	5	64	10,057	0.64%

 

Avatar 2 T-9 comps

 - Eternals - 1.61x (15.26m)

 - TG2 - .827x (15.95m)

 - JW3 - .891x (16.04m)

 - F9 - 3.33x (23.63m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - 5.46x (28.38m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.18x (19.09m)

 - Dune - 4.2x (21.41m)

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 18.38m

 - JW3 - 18m

 - FB3 - 23.86m

 

Puss in Boots T-15 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .212x (1.055m)

 - Minions 2 - .258x (2.77m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-16 comps

 - Elvis - .439x (1.41m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-8	Jax	5	84	55	1,199	11,195	10.71%
		Phx	7	82	57	853	11,645	7.33%
		Ral	8	69	87	1,023	8,473	12.07%
ATP: 16.62	Total		20	235	199	3,075	31,313	9.82%
I Wanna Dance	T-15	Jax	5	15	2	22	1,454	1.51%
		Phx	4	13	0	18	1,277	1.41%
		Ral	9	25	2	33	2,579	1.28%
	Total		17	53	4	73	5,310	1.37%
Puss in Boots	T-14	Jax	6	31	0	20	3,261	0.61%
		Phx	5	25	1	14	3,084	0.45%
		Ral	6	34	0	31	3,922	0.79%
	Total		17	90	1	65	10,267	0.63%

 

Avatar 2 T-8 comps

 - Eternals - 1.6x (15.18m)

 - TG2 - .848x (16.37m)

 - JW3 - .915x (16.47m)

 - F9 - 3.42x (24.26m)

 - Ghostbusters - 5.61x (23.29m)

 - NTTD - 5.22x (27.15m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.95x (17.72m)

 - Dune - 4.14x (21.11m)

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 18.22m

 - JW3 - 18.43m

 - FB3 - 22.1m

 

Puss in Boots T-14 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .202x (1.01m)

 - Minions 2 - .243x (2.61m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-15 comps

 - Elvis - .406x (1.3m)

[filmlover]

I’ve been monitoring sales for Christmas Day near me (as I’m beginning to make my holiday movie plans to see all of Avatar/Puss in Boots/I Wanna Dance/Babylon in theaters) and so far Whitney and Babylon have actually sold a decent number of seats near me (even with the latter going on sale just yesterday). Too soon to say for sure obviously but at least everyone should feel good about Babylon not going as low as Amsterdam and the overwhelming majority of the fall’s other prestige titles have.

[el sid]

I Wanna Dance With Somebody had yesterday 68 sold tickets for Thursday, Dec 22 and 40 tickets for Friday, Dec 23.
Comps: Respect had on Wednesday of its release week 129 sold tickets for Friday
and WSS had after ca. 24 hours on sale 83 sold tickets for Thurday (Dec 9) and 112 sold tickets for Friday (Dec 10).
I guess that's not a great start but also not too bad. Probably many people wait for the reviews.
 

The Whale still has no showtimes in my theaters. So I counted again its presales in the AMC Lincoln Square.
It had today great 494 sold tickets for tomorrow and 406+ (more like 500) for Friday. The problem with the Friday number is that they canceled one showtime (now it has 9 showtimes) and therefore it says one show is Sold Out. Which could be true. But Idk how many new tickets were sold. So I just added the last presales number of that showtime which I have, that from last Tuesday.

Comps: Racing in the Rain's final sales (=on Thursday for Thursday) were 85 sold tickets for Thursday and 139 sold tickets for Friday (on both days in 6 theaters).
Zola had on its release day for its release day 114 sold tickets in 5 theaters.

Edited December 7, 2022 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

Avatar Ways of Water MTC2 Previews(T-9) - 64047/495072 1015176.00 3173 shows

 

Definitely seeing boost in ticket sales post reactions yesterday. 

[Dragoncaine]

I think DUNE level reviews is the likeliest outcome right now. Will be very pleased if the MC score ends up in TGM territory, but mid-70s feels right. Extremely good for a spectacular, emotional holiday release. If Dune could snag a BP nom, TWoW feels even more likely.