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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Luckily, these movies are so cheap that this is sure to make a profit even if it sees another 50% decline in box office grosses (I can't imagine this cost more than either of the first two since it was originally intended for streaming). Channing stays winning!

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4 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

Seeing Knock at the Cabin in a few hours. I just looked at my theater (Madison, WI) and previews are dead for it. For my showtime (8pm) there are only 6 tickets sold (two are me and my friend). The main 7pm showtime has 10 tickets sold. 80 for Brady is pretty much identical. 

Okay my 8pm should did get alright walk ins. There was maybe 18-20 people which is ok for a non-tentpole preview in my area. I did the same theater size and showtime when I saw the preview for A2 and it was only 50% full. (Seating is like 120ish)

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^ I think it was mentioned in an article by Deadline when House Party came out that the former HBO Max originals are under contract that they have to be on digital 17 days after release and on HBO Max after 45 days. Safe to say Evil Dead Rise will likely have something similar.

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Mummies also appeared to be planned for a wide release by WB at one point, it now seems to be going quite limited (seemingly even less theaters than House Party and MM3).

 

Evil Dead Rise will likely be a similar HP/MM3 situation, but I expect Shazam 2 to still have a full, very-wide release.

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Previews

Knock at the Cabin MTC1 - 33389/228992 558161.03 1301 shows

80 for Brady  MTC1 - 16253/161259 149734.65 1342 shows

 

MEH. Knock at the Cabin is not hitting 2m previews and looking at how poor the walkups were today, I am not feeling rest of the weekend. Could be low to mid teens for both the openers. But enough to prevent A2 from winning the weekend. 

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49 minutes ago, Eric Crowe said:

I'm half-convinced they're going to place it in like 2,200-2,500 theaters now after this. Those guys at Warner are definitely broke broke. Going to be sad when they get bought out by Universal or whoever 10 years from now.

This is why I'm tempering my excitement for Gunn's new DC slate, because there's a high chance none of it will ever see the light of day. New corporate owner will come in, Gunn and Safran will clash with them, they'll leave, and then someone else will come up with a whole new plan for DC. Rinse and repeat.

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1 minute ago, crazymoviekid said:

I always thought WB low theater count for House Party and Magic Mike were because these were initially streaming movies and this was possibly made on some agreement.

 

I will say this: the initial source I got said these releases were "scaled-down", meaning larger theatrical releases were likely planned for both at one point.

 

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4 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

Do we know how much 80 For Brady made in its 3 days of previews?

I did not track last saturday numbers. 

 

But on 31st it did 5701/13169 76554.49 119 shows and 1st 5061/14715 40142.93 130 shows at MTC1. I did not see any shows at MTC2. But it did release in few other chains. I am thinking brady would have 1.5m previews including early shows while Knock at the cabin would be around 1.7m previews. 

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On 1/31/2023 at 9:36 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MTC2 previews - 78204/642066 1145696.00 4120 shows. 

 

This is again as of yesterday later afternoon and so another 2 days of data. 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MTC2 previews -  83081/648206 1214858.72 4179 shows

 

About 3 days of data. 

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23 hours ago, Eric Crowe said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 162 4096 31384 13.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 97

 

Comp - T-15

2.318x of Black Widow (30.6M)

4.941x of Shang-Chi (43.48M)

2.838x of Eternals (26.97M)

0.307x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (15.35M)

0.859x of The Batman (18.56M)

0.431x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.53M)

0.790x of Thor 4 (22.91M)

0.615x of Black Panther 2 (17.23M)

2.286x of Avatar 2 (38.86M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 162 4187 31384 13.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 91

 

Comp - T-14

2.263x of Black Widow (29.87M)

4.720x of Shang-Chi (41.54M)

2.812x of Eternals (26.71M)

0.295x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (14.74M)

0.860x of The Batman (18.59M)

0.436x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.69M)

0.781x of Thor 4 (22.66M)

0.601x of Black Panther 2 (16.84M)

2.261x of Avatar 2 (38.43M)

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80 for Brady had a very, VERY strong night locally/regionally. Which is likely helped by this being old white people central. But could also be hindered by the fact that this is Canada, and Tom Brady is certainly NOT a household name here the way he is in the States (and the NFL, while big, not having quite the same cultural impact as in the US). Every comp I have would suggest 1.5M previews (give or take), and the fact that this is consistent across multiple theatres in multiple cities is quite encouraging. But as I said, I do expect this to overindex here.

 

Knock at the Cabin on the other hand actually had a pretty dismal start if I'm being honest. Comps would range from 1-1.9M previews. But I'm pretty confident that this is staying under 2M previews, or just barely crawls to it. Horror often underindexes in Canada too, so take that for what it's worth.

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1 minute ago, DAJK said:

 suggest 1.5M previews (give or take), and the fact that this is consistent across multiple theatres in multiple cities is quite encouraging. But as I said, I do expect this to overindex here.

 

.

1.5M only for tonight or also advanced screenings?

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

238

28177

32794

4617

14.08%

 

Total Showings Removed Today

1

Total Seats Removed Today

183

Total Seats Sold Today

153

 

T-15 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-15

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

MoM

45.22

 

182

10209

 

0/351

32227/42436

24.06%

 

21117

21.86%

 

16.28m

L&T

72.66

 

150

6354

 

0/228

25246/31600

20.11%

 

16962

27.22%

 

21.07m

BP2

67.60

 

126

6830

 

2/294

30194/37024

18.45%

 

16800

27.48%

 

18.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     968/13004  [7.44% sold]
Matinee:    143/3314  [4.32% | 3.10% of all tickets sold]
3D:            536/6536  [8.20% | 11.61% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Total sold today is slightly misleading, as there was a group sale of 46 tickets at one showing at a local theater.  I went ahead and checked on the corp site of the theater in question, and it looks legit (no other showings have the same pattern of seat sales on any other days).  But if it goes away in a few days, I'll make a mention of it.

 

Still, as I've said before, group sales happen.  And in the grand scheme of things, it'll be a drop in the bucket of total sales, but mentioning it for the folks keeping a peek at the pace.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

238

28027

32794

4767

14.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

150

 

T-14 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-14

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

MoM

45.84

 

190

10399

 

0/351

32037/42436

24.51%

 

21117

22.57%

 

16.50m

L&T

72.79

 

195

6549

 

0/228

25051/31600

20.72%

 

16962

28.10%

 

21.11m

BP2

67.52

 

230

7060

 

2/294

29934/37024

19.07%

 

16800

28.38%

 

18.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1005/13004  [7.73% sold]
Matinee:     147/3314  [4.44% | 3.08% of all tickets sold]
3D:            556/6536  [8.51% | 11.66% of all tickets sold]

Edited by Porthos
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12 hours ago, M37 said:

M Night may just not be a draw with the younger horror audience, and adults have proven to be more selective and may not rush out for Thursday or OW, so wouldn’t write it off just yet

Actually I wonder the opposite, if the thing that is hurting it is the fact that this one is R-rated. Aside from The Happening all of his movies were PG-13, I wonder if this is making a barrier for part of the curious crowd to go see it.

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17 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Actually I wonder the opposite, if the thing that is hurting it is the fact that this one is R-rated. Aside from The Happening all of his movies were PG-13, I wonder if this is making a barrier for part of the curious crowd to go see it.

Again with the caveat that 2021 summer was still pandemic impacted, Old at PG-13 skewed a bit older than even R rated Don't Breathe 2 a few weeks later (demos via Deadline)

 

Old: 62%>25, 56% 18-34

DB2: 53%> 25, 63% 18-34

M3G: 56%>25, 62% 18-34

 

With that said, Cabin seems most closest to that last one, which I had legit forgot even came out post-pandemic, and was a fairly week performer

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