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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR vs XXR,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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vafrow Box Office Gold

vafrow

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, M37 said:

I was actually thinking the same thing …

 

There’s just been more casual audience movie-going over the past 2 months, plus a lot of trailers on NFL playoffs. Problem is that the casual audience is more fickle, producing a lower hit rate than than the similar awareness & interest scores among the more frequent ticket buyers 

 

My theory was that as things opened and people got back to normal post pandemic, movie going wasn't at the top of the list for more people.

 

Travel, restaurants, live events, etc. were more of a priority. But, as those things have gotten more expensive, people are looking for a little easier and cheaper.

 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 2/2/2023 at 10:07 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Ant-Man 3 T-14 Jax 6 91 22 1,193 15,860 7.52%
    Phx 6 85 31 1,235 15,027 8.22%
    Ral 8 102 16 1,223 13,657 8.96%
  Total   20 278 69 3,651 44,544 8.20%
Magic Mike 3 T-7 Jax 4 20 14 50 2,295 2.18%
    Phx 5 12 2 9 1,773 0.51%
    Ral 7 16 18 74 2,018 3.67%
  Total   16 48 34 133 6,086 2.19%
Titanic (Re) T-7 Jax 5 13 2 26 1,950 1.33%
    Phx 4 8 4 22 1,086 2.03%
    Ral 6 12 0 25 1,372 1.82%
  Total   15 33 6 73 4,408 1.66%

 

Magic Mike 3 T-7 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.385x

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Lost City - .665x (1.66m)

 

Titanic T-7 comps

 - Elvis - .209x (669k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-14 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.93x (25.43m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .37x (13.31m)

 - Thor 4 - .7x (20.31m)

 - Eternals - 2.65x (25.21m)

 - BP2 - missed

Movie Day Area TC Shows New* Sold Seats % Sold
Ant-Man 3 T-12 Jax 6 91 64 1,257 15,860 7.93%
    Phx 6 85 83 1,318 15,027 8.77%
    Ral 8 102 100 1,323 13,657 9.69%
  Total   20 278 247 3,898 44,544 8.75%
Magic Mike 3 T-5 Jax 4 20 10 60 2,295 2.61%
    Phx 6 14 0 9 2,112 0.43%
    Ral 7 16 20 94 2,018 4.66%
  Total   17 50 30 163 6,425 2.54%
Titanic (Re) T-5 Jax 5 15 7 33 2,210 1.49%
    Phx 5 11 4 26 1,351 1.92%
    Ral 7 14 19 44 1,560 2.82%
  Total   17 40 30 103 5,121 2.01%

*New sales since Thursday morning

 

Magic Mike 3 T-5 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.294x (970k)

 - Violent Night - 1.583x (1.74m)

 - Lost City - .765x (1.91m)

 

Titanic T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .247x (790k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-12 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.83x (24.16m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .38x (13.69m)

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - Eternals - missed

 - BP2 - missed

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
On 2/1/2023 at 10:54 AM, M37 said:

Chart Time! Data through T-16 updates:

QZZjCrq.png

 

At present, the average is floating around $19M, though likely weighted down by the monstrous early pre-sale volume of Strange, and should come up to $20M+ over time ...

 

... but currently doesn't look to pacing for all that much more than that; whole lot of nearly flat lines over the last 4-7 days.  In addition, looking at bit closer at the markets (and accounting for atypical distribution of BPWF) finding that higher comps values are in the more PLF/pre-sale heavy samples like Alpha and Drafthouse, major markets (Sacto, Philly) are a step below, and the secondary markets (Denver, Jax/Pho/Ral) are even trending lower

 

All in all, the sales to this point smell a little fan-heavy-ish, in that while the introduction of Kang spurred a larger early rush, the broader MCU audience appears to still largely view this release as an just another Ant-Man movie. As opening gets closer that perception may change, and won't be surprised with a strong late kick - especially with very good reviews in contrast to the mostly underwhelming phase 4 - but for now expectations are probably best tempered from where they may have vaulted after the opening day of sales

 

T-16 Forecast: $19-$22M Thursday, $100-$130M 3-day

Updated through T-13

VcyzIPR.png

 

Not much change to the analysis above, but as @Menor Reborn noted, premiere and reactions are a bit later for this release, so may be deflating comps a bit for these last couple of days, mostly in a holding pattern until recheck at T-7

 

The $20-$30M Thursday CBMs generally grew around 24-26% from T-14 to T-7 across all samples, so that's the bar we'll have to see if AMWQ can match or beat (177-179K for Alpha and ~6K for Sacto if you're curious). There is still time and room for a stronger late kick, but the longer it just matches pace, drags on in the ~$20M range, the lower the ceiling becomes even if that were to occur

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Hiccup23 Box Office Gold

Hiccup23

Posted
Posted

Well this weekend is a doozy so here is Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey's previews in my state.

 

February 15th All showings at 7pm
Tickets are upcharged to $17.23
   
  Sold Seats Percent Sold Showings
Madison 35 212 16.51% 2
Milwaukee 65 636 10.22% 6
Waukesha 9 486 1.85% 3
La Crosse 9 127 7.09% 1
Green Bay 36 423 8.51% 4
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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Eric Crowe said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 162 4263 31384 13.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 76

 

Comp - T-13

2.227x of Black Widow (29.4M)

4.530x of Shang-Chi (39.87M)

2.731x of Eternals (25.94M)

0.288x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (14.42M)

0.857x of The Batman (18.52M)

0.437x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.73M)

0.763x of Thor 4 (22.12M)

0.587x of Black Panther 2 (16.45M)

2.182x of Avatar 2 (37.09M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 162 4341 31384 13.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp - T-12

2.145x of Black Widow (28.31M)

4.439x of Shang-Chi (39.06M)

2.636x of Eternals (25.04M)

0.284x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (14.19M)

0.852x of The Batman (18.4M)

0.439x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.79M)

0.750x of Thor 4 (21.74M)

0.588x of Black Panther 2 (16.47M)

2.153x of Avatar 2 (36.6M)

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
On 2/4/2023 at 12:27 AM, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

238

27904

32794

4890

14.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

123

 

T-13 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-13

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

MoM

46.07

 

216

10615

 

0/351

31821/42436

25.01%

 

21117

23.16%

 

16.58m

L&T

71.76

 

265

6814

 

0/228

24786/31600

21.56%

 

16962

28.83%

 

20.81m

BP2

67.45

 

190

7250

 

2/296

29904/37154

19.51%

 

16800

29.11%

 

18.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1031/13004  [7.93% sold]
Matinee:    156/3314  [4.71% | 3.19% of all tickets sold]
3D:            571/6536  [8.74% | 11.68% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

238

27779

32794

5015

15.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

125

 

T-12 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-12

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

MoM

46.28

 

221

10836

 

0/351

31600/42436

25.53%

 

21117

23.75%

 

16.66m

L&T

71.83

 

168

6982

 

0/228

24618/31600

22.09%

 

16962

29.57%

 

20.83m

BP2

67.62

 

166

7416

 

2/296

29738/37154

19.96%

 

16800

29.85%

 

18.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1058/13004  [8.14% sold]
Matinee:     162/3314  [4.89% | 3.23% of all tickets sold]
3D:            594/6536  [9.09% | 11.84% of all tickets sold]

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 2/4/2023 at 9:00 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New* Sold Seats % Sold
Ant-Man 3 T-12 Jax 6 91 64 1,257 15,860 7.93%
    Phx 6 85 83 1,318 15,027 8.77%
    Ral 8 102 100 1,323 13,657 9.69%
  Total   20 278 247 3,898 44,544 8.75%
Magic Mike 3 T-5 Jax 4 20 10 60 2,295 2.61%
    Phx 6 14 0 9 2,112 0.43%
    Ral 7 16 20 94 2,018 4.66%
  Total   17 50 30 163 6,425 2.54%
Titanic (Re) T-5 Jax 5 15 7 33 2,210 1.49%
    Phx 5 11 4 26 1,351 1.92%
    Ral 7 14 19 44 1,560 2.82%
  Total   17 40 30 103 5,121 2.01%

*New sales since Thursday morning

 

Magic Mike 3 T-5 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.294x (970k)

 - Violent Night - 1.583x (1.74m)

 - Lost City - .765x (1.91m)

 

Titanic T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .247x (790k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-12 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.83x (24.16m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .38x (13.69m)

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - Eternals - missed

 - BP2 - missed

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Ant-Man 3 T-11 Jax 6 91 56 1,313 15,860 8.28%
    Phx 6 85 36 1,354 15,027 9.01%
    Ral 8 102 14 1,337 13,657 9.79%
  Total   20 278 106 4,004 44,544 8.99%
Magic Mike 3 T-4 Jax 4 20 13 73 2,295 3.18%
    Phx 6 14 3 12 2,112 0.57%
    Ral 7 16 5 99 2,018 4.91%
  Total   17 50 21 184 6,425 2.86%
Titanic (Re) T-4 Jax 5 15 -1 32 2,210 1.45%
    Phx 5 11 8 34 1,351 2.52%
    Ral 7 14 2 46 1,560 2.95%
  Total   17 40 9 112 5,121 2.19%

 

Magic Mike 3 T-4 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.305x (979k)

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Lost City - .767x (1.92m)

 

Titanic T-4 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 

Ant-Man 3 T-11 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.8x (23.71m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .384x (13.81m)

 - Thor 4 - .67x (19.45m)

 - Eternals - missed

 - BP2 - missed

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 2/2/2023 at 4:04 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 737 2587 28.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 583 3106 18.77%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3204 77 32687 9.80% 15 190

 

AMCs sold 2189
Cinemarks sold 455
Regals sold 288
Harkins sold 272

 

0.828x Black Panther WF T-14 (23.19M)

0.692x Thor L&T T-14 (20.08M)

0.440x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (15.84M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 768 2587 29.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 618 3106 19.90%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 3 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3445 241 32687 10.54% 15 190

 

AMCs sold 2323
Cinemarks sold 511
Regals sold 310
Harkins sold 301

 

0.682x Thor L&T T-11 (19.78M)

0.445x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (16.01M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 2/2/2023 at 4:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

 

T-14 Thursday(126 showings): 2806(+51)/36288

0.645x Thor L&T T-14 (18.71M)

0.351x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (12.65M)

 

T-15 Friday(185 showings): 1875(+77)/54636

0.791x Thor L&T T-15 (32.07M)

0.436x Doctor Strange MoM T-15 (23.83M)

 

T-16 Saturday(186 showings): 1296(+44)/54893

1.12x Thor L&T T-16 (47.25M)

0.530x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (30.67M)

 

T-17 Sunday(180 showings): 421(+10)/52588

0.979x Thor L&T T-17 (31.82M)

0.718x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (27.94M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex [+3 days of sales]

 

T-11 Thursday(126 showings): 3002(+196)/36288

0.612x Thor L&T T-11 (17.76M)

0.352x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (12.69M)

 

T-12 Friday(185 showings): 2063(+188)/54636

0.744x Thor L&T T-12 (30.18M)

0.430x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (23.51M)

 

T-13 Saturday(186 showings): 1482(+186)/54893

1.04x Thor L&T T-13 (43.86M)

0.530x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (30.63M)

 

T-14 Sunday(180 showings): 479(+58)/52588

0.871x Thor L&T T-14 (28.30M)

0.687x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (26.73M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 1/31/2023 at 4:31 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse [+4 days of sales]

 

T-16 Thursday(237 showings): 9261(+610)/34519 ATP: $15.94

0.770x Black Panther WF T-16 (21.56M)

0.593x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (21.35M)

 

T-17 Friday(331 showings): 7512(+949)/48238 ATP: $15.71

0.580x Black Panther WF T-17 (32.67M)

0.568x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (31.05M)

 

T-18 Saturday(338 showings): 7751(+889)/49274 ATP: $15.02

0.701x Black Panther WF T-18 (39.35M)

0.566x Doctor Strange MoM T-18 (32.70M)

 

T-19 Sunday(306 showings): 3294(+572)/45387 ATP: $14.26

0.542x Black Panther WF T-19 (22.17M)

0.510x Doctor Strange MoM T-19 (19.83M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse [+5 days of sales]

 

T-11 Thursday(242 showings): 10293(+1032)/35303ATP: $15.88

0.833x Thor L&T T-11 (24.15M)

0.612x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (22.02M)

 

T-12 Friday(338 showings): 8978(+1466)/49232 ATP: $15.62

0.882x Thor L&T T-12 (35.77M)

0.602x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (32.91M)

 

T-13 Saturday(347 showings): 9320(+1569)/50528 ATP: $15.01

0.965x Thor L&T T-13 (40.62M)

0.95x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (34.39M)

 

T-14 Sunday(315 showings): 4225(+931)/46358 ATP: $14.20

0.799x Thor L&T T-14 (25.97M)

0.549x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (21.34M)

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Eric Crowe said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 162 4341 31384 13.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp - T-12

2.145x of Black Widow (28.31M)

4.439x of Shang-Chi (39.06M)

2.636x of Eternals (25.04M)

0.284x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (14.19M)

0.852x of The Batman (18.4M)

0.439x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.79M)

0.750x of Thor 4 (21.74M)

0.588x of Black Panther 2 (16.47M)

2.153x of Avatar 2 (36.6M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 162 4423 31384 14.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 82

 

Comp - T-11

2.104x of Black Widow (27.77M)

4.184x of Shang-Chi (36.82M)

2.597x of Eternals (24.67M)

0.269x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.46M)

0.844x of The Batman (18.22M)

0.440x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.84M)

0.743x of Thor 4 (21.56M)

0.589x of Black Panther 2 (16.5M)

2.091x of Avatar 2 (35.55M)

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 2/5/2023 at 1:14 AM, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

238

27779

32794

5015

15.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

125

 

T-12 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-12

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

MoM

46.28

 

221

10836

 

0/351

31600/42436

25.53%

 

21117

23.75%

 

16.66m

L&T

71.83

 

168

6982

 

0/228

24618/31600

22.09%

 

16962

29.57%

 

20.83m

BP2

67.62

 

166

7416

 

2/296

29738/37154

19.96%

 

16800

29.85%

 

18.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1058/13004  [8.14% sold]
Matinee:     162/3314  [4.89% | 3.23% of all tickets sold]
3D:            594/6536  [9.09% | 11.84% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

238

27617

32794

5177

15.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

162

 

T-11 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-11

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

MoM

46.78

 

189

11025

 

0/351

31411/42436

25.98%

 

21117

24.52%

 

16.84m

L&T

72.06

 

202

7184

 

0/228

24416/31600

22.73%

 

16962

30.52%

 

20.90m

BP2

67.98

 

200

7616

 

2/296

29538/37154

20.50%

 

16800

30.82%

 

19.03m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1093/13004  [8.41% sold]
Matinee:      167/3314  [5.04% | 3.22% of all tickets sold]
3D:             627/6536  [9.59% | 12.09% of all tickets sold]

Edited by Porthos
Accidentally overcounted by 8 seats sold - fixed
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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted

Don't know if anyone's been closely tracking the Magic Mike numbers but I checked sales near me this weekend and it's looking to uphold the franchise tradition of being ridiculously frontloaded on opening weekend. Friday night shows are selling pretty well but Saturday is looking anemic so far. With Super Bowl on Sunday I wouldn't be surprised to see Friday make up more than half of its weekend total.

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