The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 2/7/2023 at 11:32 PM, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	238	27218	32794	5576	17.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

257

 

T-9 Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	47.69		403	11693		0/353	30983/42676	27.40%		21117	26.41%		17.17m
L&T	72.89		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	32.87%		21.14m
BP2	68.70		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	33.19%		19.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1219/13004  [9.37% sold]
Matinee:    205/3314  [6.19% | 3.68% of all tickets sold]
3D:            661/6536  [10.11% | 11.85% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	237	26881	32664	5783	17.70%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	130
Total Seats Sold Today	207

 

T-8 Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	47.83		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	27.39%		17.22m
L&T	72.89		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	34.09%		21.14m
BP2	68.98		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	34.42%		19.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1280/12874  [9.94% sold]
Matinee:    220/3314  [6.64% | 3.80% of all tickets sold]
3D:            655/6383  [10.26% | 11.33% of all tickets sold]

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Magic Eric said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-29 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	171	7068	2.42%

 

Comp - First Day of Sales

2.280x of Scream (7.98M)

 

This is actually the farthest comp out for all my long-range horror films tracked, but I knew @Krissykins would pester me for some sort of comparison, so this is T-29 vs. T-27. But yeah...this new one got a much bigger start lol (and yeah I know a lot of it is because the last Scream started its sales during the Christmas season, but...still pretty far ahead).

Thank you, I really appreciate it  

[charlie Jatinder]

@Porthos what's your limit of tracking? I think you should check Scream. Very strong start in Harkins. 1st day 50% higher than H3 despite opening sales much early. Need to see if it can maintain tho.

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-8	Jax	6	94	88	1,474	16,129	9.14%
		Phx	6	90	61	1,538	15,400	9.99%
		Ral	8	103	119	1,579	13,705	11.52%
	Total		20	287	268	4,591	45,234	10.15%
Cocaine Bear	T-15	Jax	6	19	0	23	2,036	1.13%
		Phx	6	15	2	42	1,980	2.12%
		Ral	7	18	0	46	1,443	3.19%
	Total		19	52	2	111	5,459	2.03%
Jesus Revolution	T-15	Jax	5	9	1	25	1,021	2.45%
		Phx	4	5	0	19	622	3.05%
		Ral	7	11	7	58	1,156	5.02%
	Total		16	25	8	102	2,799	3.64%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-14	Jax	5	11	4	243	1,021	23.80%
		Phx	5	8	10	135	850	15.88%
		Ral	8	12	4	652	1,462	44.60%
	Total		18	31	18	1,030	3,333	30.90%
Magic Mike 3	T-1	Jax	4	25	18	109	3,045	3.58%
		Phx	6	22	14	62	2,822	2.20%
		Ral	7	24	30	160	3,114	5.14%
	Total		17	71	62	331	8,981	3.69%
Marlowe	T-6	Jax	5	16	0	11	1,580	0.70%
		Phx	5	13	5	7	1,121	0.62%
		Ral	6	13	6	10	1,210	0.83%
	Total		16	42	11	28	3,911	0.72%
Titanic (Re)	T-1	Jax	5	19	7	50	2,608	1.92%
		Phx	6	21	17	71	2,326	3.05%
		Ral	7	16	25	90	1,760	5.11%
	Total		18	56	49	211	6,694	3.15%

 

Magic Mike 3 T-1 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.458x (1.09m)

 - Violent Night - 1.742x (1.92m)

 - Paradise - 1.689x (1.6m)

 - Lost City - .685x (1.71m)

 

Titanic T-1 comps

 - Elvis - .245x (785k)

 - House of Gucci - .581x (756k)

 - King Richard - .634x (1.23m)

 

I don't like any comps for this.  Very wide range of outcomes, especially with being an only 3D release.  I didn't track the Avatar re-release but that would have worked well.

 

Marlowe T-6 comps

 - Missing - .966x (734k)

 - Ambulance - .7x (490k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.556x (621k)

 - Bones and All - 1.647x (568k)

 - Last Night in Soho - missing

 - Amsterdam - .459x (252k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-8 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.75x (23.15m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .399x (14.35m)

 - Thor 4 - .681x (19.76m)

 - Eternals - 2.38x (22.66m)

 - BP2 - .613x (17.16m)

 

Jesus Revolution T-15 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - 1.325x (809k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.397x (1.02m)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 3.724x (6.7m)

 - Left Behind - 14.7x (8.98m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 15.51x (11.32m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-15 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.388x (2.01m)

 - Elvis - .617x (1.97m)

 - Nope - .366x (2.34m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-7	Jax	6	94	44	1,518	16,129	9.41%
		Phx	6	95	65	1,603	15,828	10.13%
		Ral	8	103	54	1,633	13,705	11.92%
	Total		20	292	163	4,754	45,662	10.41%
Cocaine Bear	T-14	Jax	6	19	0	23	2,036	1.13%
		Phx	6	15	0	42	1,980	2.12%
		Ral	8	20	3	49	1,569	3.12%
	Total		20	54	3	114	5,585	2.04%
Jesus Revolution	T-14	Jax	5	9	0	25	1,021	2.45%
		Phx	4	5	0	19	622	3.05%
		Ral	7	11	7	65	1,156	5.62%
	Total		16	25	7	109	2,799	3.89%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-13	Jax	5	11	0	243	1,021	23.80%
		Phx	5	8	2	137	850	16.12%
		Ral	8	12	4	656	1,462	44.87%
	Total		18	31	6	1,036	3,333	31.08%
Magic Mike 3	T-0	Jax	4	25	2	111	3,045	3.65%
		Phx	7	25	21	83	3,061	2.71%
		Ral	7	24	27	187	3,114	6.01%
	Total		18	74	50	381	9,220	4.13%
Marlowe	T-5	Jax	5	16	1	12	1,580	0.76%
		Phx	5	13	-2	5	1,121	0.45%
		Ral	6	13	2	12	1,210	0.99%
	Total		16	42	1	29	3,911	0.74%
Titanic (Re)	T-0	Jax	5	19	8	58	2,608	2.22%
		Phx	6	21	22	93	2,326	4.00%
		Ral	7	16	11	101	1,760	5.74%
	Total		18	56	41	252	6,694	3.76%

 

Magic Mike 3 T-0 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.305x (979k)

 - Violent Night - 1.432x (1.58m)

 - Paradise - 1.346x (1.28m)

 - Lost City - .555x (1.39m)

 - The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard - 2.165x (1.76m)

 - The Menu - 1.391x (1.39m)

 

Thinking around 1.3m for previews.  Hopefully the smaller distribution doesn't hurt too much.  I've seen some events pop up for Valentines Day so expect a pretty big boost then.

 

Titanic T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .219x (699k)

 - House of Gucci - .555x (722k)

 - King Richard - .403x (782k)

 - Avatar 2 - .034x (586k)

 

At least these comps are coming closer together.  Maybe around 700k previews (likely higher with 3D prices)

 

Marlowe T-5 comps

 - Missing - .935x (710k)

 - Ambulance - .707x (495k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.318x (526k)

 - Bones and All - 1.381x (476k)

 - Last Night in Soho - missing

 - Amsterdam - .459x (252k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-7 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.68x (22.15m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .397x (14.29m)

 - Thor 4 - .681x (19.74m)

 - Eternals - 2.29x (21.75m)

 - BP2 - .605x (16.93m)

 

Jesus Revolution T-14 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - 1.346x (822k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.473x (1.08m)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - missed

 - Left Behind - 14.14x (8.63m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 15.47x (11.3m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-14 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.425x (2.07m)

 - Elvis - .591x (1.89m)

 - Nope - .353x (2.26m)

Edited February 9, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Update

[vafrow]

It looks like Fast X is now available for sale. It's on Cineplexs site in my area. The trailer apparently drops today. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

[charlie Jatinder]

I think just track day 1 of Fast X for sake of it then start around T-30/25 days or so, give it random check in between.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Easier said than done for someone who hates gaps in a spreadsheet.

[Tinalera]

42 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I feel this, I truly do......sigh

Edited February 9, 2023 by Tinalera

[M37]

20 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Scream VI T-30: 56.33% Awareness, 6.2 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 70M, 57% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M

7 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Comp - First Day of Sales

2.280x of Scream (7.98M)

Maybe we should pay a bit more attention to those Quorum numbers ...

 

Also, didn't Nope have an absurdly long like 40+ day sales period? Maybe not the greatest comp (although I don't think its too terrible), might be worth including until there's more options

[Tinalera]

45 minutes ago, vafrow said:

It looks like Fast X is now available for sale. It's on Cineplexs site in my area. The trailer apparently drops today. 

 

And again with the massive early release date......

 

Right Im going to continue with what I started with Avatar and doing with Antman, West to East, a geographic area a day in Canada-not all theatres, but a sample of 3-5.

 

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Tinalera

[Eric Atreides]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Also, didn't Nope have an absurdly long like 40+ day sales period? Maybe not the greatest comp (although I don't think its too terrible), might be worth including until there's more options

You know I did forget about that. Just updated that, and while it's not a perfect comp as a franchise vs. original thing (and yeah, I know Peele has a big fanbase and he's arguably a brand, blah blah blah), it's also ahead of that film with about 6.71M. I don't want to count chickens and stuff, but...this may really be a huge deal.

 

If it gets previews that high, I'm sure the Scream producers plan to send Tim Burton some flowers and chocolates for allowing that Wednesday show of his to come out at the literal perfect time lmao

[JustLurking]

Damn, is Jenny Ortega this big a deal now? Wew.

[Tinalera]

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17(Taken feb 9)

Toronto Ontario 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	32	1935	7957	9892	0.1956
	Fri	4	36	1630	7906	9536	0.1709

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

It looks like Fast X is now available for sale. It's on Cineplexs site in my area. The trailer apparently drops today. 

Doesn't it drop tomorrow?

[GOGODanca]

Fast X previews start at 2 PM

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fast X	T-98	Jax	5	51	0	0	7,530	0.00%
		Phx	5	19	1	1	3,083	0.03%
		Ral	6	36	16	16	6,527	0.25%
	Total		16	106	17	17	17,140	0.10%
Scream VI	T-28	Jax	5	22	48	48	2,910	1.65%
		Phx	5	15	96	96	2,792	3.44%
		Ral	8	33	73	73	4,211	1.73%
	Total		18	70	217	217	9,913	2.19%

 

Just setting up my sheets for Fast X.  Cinemark and Regal have pretty full sets up already, but AMC is mostly one or two shows per theater.

 

Scream VI T-28 comps

 - Nope - 1.247x (7.98m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 6.576x (9.53m)

[Tinalera]

16 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Fast X previews start at 2 PM

Somewhere @Porthos eye is starting to twitch....

Edited February 9, 2023 by Tinalera

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man 3 MTC1 previews - 160674/914873 2849711.60 4951 shows

 

Definitely some acceleration. Let us see how things go today. 

Ant-Man 3 MTC1 previews - 165800/940490 2932534.02 5151 shows

 

Another solid day. Dropped just 10% from previous day. Since we are almost at the final week, it should start going up. 

[Issac Newton]

Titanic (25th Anniversary Re-Release)
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 11 million

 

Titanic (25th Anniversary Re-Release)

Paramount Pictures

$8,200,000

$8,200,000

~1,800

NEW

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/super-bowl-weekend-box-office-forecast-magic-mikes-last-dance-and-titanics-25th-anniversary-re-issue-will-try-to-counter-the-big-game/

 

Since, $8.2M avg on 1800 locs - how much more on remaining 600 locs as mentioned by Deadline (2400 locs)