The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

30 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I'm looking back in this thread to see where tracking and general mood was for Uncharted a year ago, one or two days before it opened. I figure that might be the best example to use to measure potential walkups.

 

General consensus in this thread was that it would open to about $3M, on the way to about $30M on the three day. Some were higher, some were lower. Deadline was saying in the $30Ms in their prediction. Box office pro had $30.7M for the three day.

 

Final result was $3.7M against a $44M three day.

 

I figure the two are probably decent comparables. IP based, but relatively weak IP, and similar action/comedy tone. Not a guarantee or anything, but, I wanted to at least dig into a recent strong walk up performance to see what's possible.

 

If I had more time, other ones I'd be inclined to review is Elvis or Ghostbusters Afterlife. Films that were unexpectedly good in this mid range.

 

Edit: I looked up Box office pro estimates for Ghostbusters Afterlife and Elvis. GBA was spot on at $44M. Elvis was overestimated at $38M to $31M, so, that shows the other side. Being better than audiences expect doesn't always trigger a big OW walk-up effect.

Uncharted we just had Eric track and so not enough data. Movies tend to over/under index big time at Phily. I am not even sure last time a movie finished exactly on par with previews :-)

 

D&D we have way more data. I doubt there will be a huge surprise. Big question is how the walkups go. With so many early shows having taken care of demand, and also this could be fan driven, I can see muted walkups tomorrow. But with good WOM weekend should hopefully catch up. Friday sales are fairly promising. 

[cooldude97]

1 week till Mario. What are expectations so far?

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

1 week till Mario. What are expectations so far?

Personally, $100M+ 3 day $130M+ 5 day 

 

That number could go higher or lower, we'll have to see how this upcoming week goes 

[Tinalera]

I think with Sonic movies doing well, if Mario does 100 plus and keeps the momentum going, it really does solidify the idea that Video Game movie IPS can do very well. The other side of it? More studios will start buying and pushing out video game IPs. Which may in turn turn things from a cool novelty to a glut pretty quickly if not careful (already streaming services making stuff like Last of Us and Fallout among others on the horizon)

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Uncharted we just had Eric track and so not enough data. Movies tend to over/under index big time at Phily. I am not even sure last time a movie finished exactly on par with previews 🙂

 

D&D we have way more data. I doubt there will be a huge surprise. Big question is how the walkups go. With so many early shows having taken care of demand, and also this could be fan driven, I can see muted walkups tomorrow. But with good WOM weekend should hopefully catch up. Friday sales are fairly promising. 

 

I definitely trust the trackers, and don't want it to appear that I don't. It's the best data we have.

 

This property just fascinates me. The advance reviews suggest great capacity for word of mouth. It's certainly had some momentum this week, but I'm curious if and when we may see that word of mouth take effect. That's why I was curious to see how a similar property behaved over the weekend. 

[Tinalera]

Mario Brothers

Thurs April 6 and Fri Apr 7 (T-9)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

 

 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	46	225	14924	15149	0.0148
	Fri	4	25	577	7916	8493	0.0679
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Montreal	Thurs	4	36	122	10956	11078	0.0110
	Fri	3	18	273	5375	5375	0.0507

 

 

A note-Thursday show amounts for both Montreal and toronto almost doubled, and as a result seating volume for those shows almost doubled as well-so while the percentage may appear to have gone down, its due to the sheer amount of seats (and newly added a lot of zeroes) for those. I think the friday shows, which didn't really change much in volume, are more representative from T No doubt these Thursday will be more filled in next time I visit this area for counts.

[Eric Duncan]

14 hours ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	1992	18634	10.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 132

 

Comp - T-2

0.758x of Shang-Chi (6.67M)

0.921x of Venom 2 (10.68M)

1.544x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (6.95M)

2.883x of Uncharted (10.67M)

2.947x of The Lost City (9.58M)

1.346x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.08M)

0.553x of Top Gun 2 (10.66M)

0.569x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.24M)

1.034x of Black Adam (7.86M)

3.615x of Shazam 2 (12.29M)

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	115	2193	18958	11.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 201

 

Comp - T-1

0.677x of Shang-Chi (5.96M)

0.736x of Venom 2 (8.54M)

1.370x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (6.16M)

2.467x of Uncharted (9.13M)

2.833x of The Lost City (9.21M)

1.276x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (7.65M)

0.530x of Top Gun 2 (10.21M)

0.527x of Jurassic World: Dominion (9.48M)

0.947x of Black Adam (7.2M)

3.258x of Shazam 2 (11.08M)

[Eric Duncan]

14 hours ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	210	2462	40562	6.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 250

 

Comp - T-8

1.306x of Sing 2 (12.71M)

3.391x of Sonic 2 (21.19M)

9.433x of Lightyear (49.05M)

9.731x of Minions 2 (104.61M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	210	2655	40562	6.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 193

 

Comp - T-7

1.325x of Sing 2 (12.9M)

3.310x of Sonic 2 (20.69M)

8.880x of Lightyear (46.17M)

8.402x of Minions 2 (90.32M)

[Mulder]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

I'm looking back in this thread to see where tracking and general mood was for Uncharted a year ago, one or two days before it opened. I figure that might be the best example to use to measure potential walkups.

 

General consensus in this thread was that it would open to about $3M, on the way to about $30M on the three day. Some were higher, some were lower. Deadline was saying in the $30Ms in their prediction. Box office pro had $30.7M for the three day.

 

Final result was $3.7M against a $44M three day.

 

I figure the two are probably decent comparables. IP based, but relatively weak IP, and similar action/comedy tone. Not a guarantee or anything, but, I wanted to at least dig into a recent strong walk up performance to see what's possible.

 

If I had more time, other ones I'd be inclined to review is Elvis or Ghostbusters Afterlife. Films that were unexpectedly good in this mid range.

 

Edit: I looked up Box office pro estimates for Ghostbusters Afterlife and Elvis. GBA was spot on at $44M. Elvis was overestimated at $38M to $31M, so, that shows the other side. Being better than audiences expect doesn't always trigger a big OW walk-up effect.

I also think with Uncharted that had a genuine bit of a star-power bump from Tom Holland thanks to No Way Home. D&D doesn't quite have anything like that. Though honestly if it opens in the mid 30s that'd still be impressive considering how it was tracking pre-reviews. The fact it will almost certainly out open Shazam 2 is insane in its own way.

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-dungeons-dragons-honor-among-thieves-and-john-wick-chapter-4-look-to-dominate-final-frame-of-q1/

 

Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections

Current projection ranges call for a 15 to 24 percent decline from last weekend’s $112.2 million top ten aggregate.

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 2	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves	Paramount Pictures	$35,000,000	$35,000,000	~3,850	NEW
John Wick: Chapter 4	Lionsgate	$30,600,000	$124,900,000	~3,855	-59%
Creed III	MGM	$5,300,000	$148,900,000	~3,000	-35%
Shazam! Fury of the Gods	Warner Bros. Pictures	$5,100,000	$54,000,000	~3,400	-45%
Scream VI	Paramount Pictures	$4,700,000	$97,500,000	~3,000	-44%
His Only Son	Angel Studios	$2,700,000	$2,700,000	~1,900	NEW
65	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$1,900,000	$30,900,000	~2,100	-41%
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	Disney & Marvel Studios	$1,500,000	$212,300,000	~1,500	-38%
Jesus Revolution	Lionsgate	$1,200,000	$51,100,000	~1,500	-39%
Cocaine Bear	Universal Pictures	$1,100,000	$64,000,000	~1,300	-47%

[MightyDargon]

Shazam's gonna lose more than 45 percent, I'll tell you that.

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1

Midnights - 3078/24252 71291.00 114 shows

OD - 82254/1022959 1350310.66 5504 shows

 

Good boost today.  My expectation is presales to be > 2x of this by tuesday night next week. 

Mario MTC1 

Midnights - 3331/33819 76300.21 169 shows

OD - 88814/1089240 1446354.36 5973 shows

 

Another increase in pace. No change in my expectations. Thinking around 120K by end of the week and 170k by PS End for wednesday. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

D&D

MTC1 Mar 29 - 13832/37337 267727.34 179 shows

MTC1 Previews - 29725/493131 488502.51 2687 shows

D&D

MTC1 Mar 29 - 17786/37334 341448.58 174 shows

MTC1 previews - 37046/499221 599537.40 2739 shows

 

At least the pace picked up today.  Around 5-5.5m previews including early shows. 19th had no MTC and most early shows until today had no PLFs either. I want to see how walkups go tomorrow to hone in on OW but somewhere in 30s looks likely. Hopefully closer to 40 than not. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/28/2023 at 10:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Megaplex [+6 days of sales]

 

T-8 Wednesday(167 showings): 4099(+1602)/53071

 

T-9 Thursday(157 showings): 1275(+595)/49710

0.561x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (39.00M)*

0.914x Ant-Man 3 Thurs+Fri (42.43M)*

 

T-10 Friday(163 showings): 2097(+800)/51694

0.895x Ant-Man 3 T-10 (25.90M)

0.678x Thor L&T T-10 (27.49M)

 

T-11 Saturday(165 showings): 2356(+682)/52746

1.40x Ant-Man 3 T-11 (47.60M)

1.45x Thor L&T T-11 (61.17M)

 

Data posted tonight is from about 5 hours ago.

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

Mario Megaplex

 

T-7 Wednesday(171 showings): 4562(+461)/53894

 

T-8 Thursday(169 showings): 1449(+174)/53248

0.627x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (43.62M)*

 

T-9 Friday(167 showings): 2268(+171)/52516

0.895x Ant-Man 3 T-9 (26.26M)

0.678x Thor L&T T-9 (27.50M)

 

T-10 Saturday(169 showings): 2531(+175)/53569

1.41x Ant-Man 3 T-10 (47.94M)

1.44x Thor L&T T-10 (60.52M)

 

Numbers are from 6 hours ago

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/28/2023 at 10:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Drafthouse [+6 days of sales]

 

T-8 Wednesday(192 showings): 5305(+1489)/31277

 

T-9 Thursday(187 showings): 3258(+1029)/30534

 

T-10 Friday(196 showings): 6842(+1836)/31157

 

T-11 Saturday(204 showings): 7239(+1710)/32385

Mario Drafthouse

 

T-7 Wednesday(192 showings): 5920(+615)/31277

 

T-8 Thursday(187 showings): 3504(+246)/30534

 

T-9 Friday(196 showings): 7330(+488)/31157

 

T-10 Saturday(204 showings): 7622(+383)/32385

[stripe]

7 hours ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-dungeons-dragons-honor-among-thieves-and-john-wick-chapter-4-look-to-dominate-final-frame-of-q1/

 

Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections

Current projection ranges call for a 15 to 24 percent decline from last weekend’s $112.2 million top ten aggregate.

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 2	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves	Paramount Pictures	$35,000,000	$35,000,000	~3,850	NEW
John Wick: Chapter 4	Lionsgate	$30,600,000	$124,900,000	~3,855	-59%
Creed III	MGM	$5,300,000	$148,900,000	~3,000	-35%
Shazam! Fury of the Gods	Warner Bros. Pictures	$5,100,000	$54,000,000	~3,400	-45%
Scream VI	Paramount Pictures	$4,700,000	$97,500,000	~3,000	-44%
His Only Son	Angel Studios	$2,700,000	$2,700,000	~1,900	NEW
65	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$1,900,000	$30,900,000	~2,100	-41%
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	Disney & Marvel Studios	$1,500,000	$212,300,000	~1,500	-38%
Jesus Revolution	Lionsgate	$1,200,000	$51,100,000	~1,500	-39%
Cocaine Bear	Universal Pictures	$1,100,000	$64,000,000	~1,300	-47%

 

After 15 weekends, Avatar 2 is about to drop from top10. One week more than original Avatar.

[vafrow]

My theatre is at 12 tickets sold today for D&D across two showings. Ive started to track final sales to measure the day of walk up.

 

Note, Shazam started it's preview day with 100 tickets sold and landed at 206. But, this was during spring break here, and sales here over indexed like crazy compared to the broader trends. I didn't measure John Wick start of day, but it ended with 125 tickets over four shows.

[Tinalera]

Dungeons and Dragons

Thurs Mar 30 and Fri Mar 31 (T-1)

Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland)

 

 

 

NS		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	12	93	2877	2970	0.0313
	Fri	4	29	285	2529	2814	0.1012
NB		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	7	180	1450	1630	0.1104
	Fri	4	17	255	3603	3858	0.0660
NFLD	Thurs	1	3	62	577	639	0.1074
	Fri	1	8	205	1663	1877	0.1092

 

Comparison to John Wick (T-1)

NS		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	24	358	4677	5035	0.0711
	Fri	4	36	456	8498	8954	0.0509
NB		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	11	97	2161	2258	0.0429
	Fri	3	18	48	3387	3435	0.0139
NFLD	Thurs	1	9	202	1632	1834	0.1237
	Fri	1	15	174	3226	3416	0.0509

 

 

Antman Quantum T-1

Nova Sc	Thurs	4	27	825	5385	6210	0.1328
	fri	4	25	436	7651	8087	0.0539
New B	Thurs	3	12	306	2278	2584	0.1184
	fri	3	14	285	4307	4592	0.0620
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	13	398	2129	2527	0.1574
	fri	1	21	486	3989	4475	0.1086

[filmlover]

Renfield is having early shows on April 12 at 7:00 at a number of locations.

 

Mafia Mamma is also having 7:00 early showings the day before that.

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

D&D

MTC1 Mar 29 - 17786/37334 341448.58 174 shows

MTC1 previews - 37046/499221 599537.40 2739 shows

 

At least the pace picked up today.  Around 5-5.5m previews including early shows. 19th had no MTC and most early shows until today had no PLFs either. I want to see how walkups go tomorrow to hone in on OW but somewhere in 30s looks likely. Hopefully closer to 40 than not. 

MTC2 Mar 29 -7424/23298 115391.25 115 shows

MTC2 Previews - 21752/393037 290729.50 2723 shows

 

Let us see how walkups go today.