The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Boxofficerules]

When you think we’ll start seeing ticket sales for Evil Dead Rise?

Edited March 30, 2023 by Boxofficerules

[TwoMisfits]

For the record, I'm leaning to a Shazam open for DnD.  It just seems like Mario is swallowing up movies that skew more family friendly b/c that group only has the funds for one movie/month tops...and adult/teen GA has gotten their fill with $5 Atom deals for Creed 3 and John Wick 4...and have the option for Air next week...

[Pinacolada]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For the record, I'm leaning to a Shazam open for DnD.  It just seems like Mario is swallowing up movies that skew more family friendly b/c that group only has the funds for one movie/month tops...and adult/teen GA has gotten their fill with $5 Atom deals for Creed 3 and John Wick 4...and have the option for Air next week...

Yeah sadly not optimistic for $40m+ anymore. Not a tracker, but Sales just don't look good enough around me. 

 

Just hoping for $35m and good enough legs to get it over $100m DOM at this point

[stripe]

44 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For the record, I'm leaning to a Shazam open for DnD.  It just seems like Mario is swallowing up movies that skew more family friendly b/c that group only has the funds for one movie/month tops...and adult/teen GA has gotten their fill with $5 Atom deals for Creed 3 and John Wick 4...and have the option for Air next week...

 

If previews are around 5-5.5M, as @keysersoze123 suggests, I can't see DnD going below 35M. That would mean a IM under 7x previews. That's really low to me even with EA inflating Thursday previews.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

If previews are around 5-5.5M, as @keysersoze123 suggests, I can't see DnD going below 35M. That would mean a IM under 7x previews. That's really low to me even with EA inflating Thursday previews.

 

If true previews are $3.5M (but total is $5M), then a $30Mish open would be roughly 8-8.5x true previews plus the extra early stuff...

[Menor the Destroyer]

Friday presales are well ahead of where Shazam was at the same point. I cannot see it going under 35. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Friday presales are well ahead of where Shazam was at the same point. I cannot see it going under 35. 

 

Even MTC2?...b/c my 2 MTC2 are dead today and most of tomorrow...

 

MTC2 is GA, since its subscriber base ticket allowance is so low...

Edited March 30, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Even MTC2?...b/c my 2 MTC2 are dead today and most of tomorrow...

 

MTC2 is GA, since its subscriber base ticket allowance is so low...

yes. it is ahead of Shazam. 

[Pinacolada]

29 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Friday presales are well ahead of where Shazam was at the same point. I cannot see it going under 35. 

Pheww... Well that's good at least

[GOGODanca]

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

D&D Marcus

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 476 (+25)

Seats Sold: 3520/72741 (+767)

 

1.24x Shazam 2 (4.21 million)

1.14x Creed 3 pure Thu

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 829 (+88)

Seats Sold: 7601/121894 (+1538)

 

1.74x Shazam 2 (14.4 million)

1.51x Bullet Train (12.3 million)

 

It's overperforming here. Still as I mentioned above I don't see it opening below 35. 

[Borobudur]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

yes. it is ahead of Shazam. 

Will Cesar Day boost Friday sale a bit especially for California-based cinema? 

[keysersoze123]

25 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Will Cesar Day boost Friday sale a bit especially for California-based cinema? 

I am not talking just for CA. Overall its higher. it has to have horrendous walkups to miss shazam OW and that movie did not have great walkups either. 

[TheFlatLannister]

 

On 3/27/2023 at 4:40 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

 

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	3342	31338	10.7%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-13

590

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-13

13

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
40	487	4397	11.1%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-13

93

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-13

2

 

COMPS PREVIEWS: 
JOHN WICK 4 as of T-0 : (1.064x) $9.5M OD (3D ATP should push that estimate well past $10M OD) (Sales will continue to grow fast so expect Mario to finish maybe (2x) of John Wick T-0 (~$17-19M OD)

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	3964	32559	12.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-9

622

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-9

4

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
41	576	4480	12.9%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-9

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-9

1

 

COMP PREVIEWS:

JOHN WICK 4 (1.262x) ~$11M OD Previews 

 

It should be able to get to at least 1.8x of John Wick previews (assuming no massive late push) by T-1

 

That would put it at $16M OD 

 

Barring any disastrous early reactions, I'm pretty confident in $120M+ 5 day 

 

Since I'm only tracking Wednesday, I'm not sure how Thursday and Friday are looking. It is a family film so that should help it play well all throughout the weekend, even though it's behaving like a fan rush CBM here in Orlando. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Like many have already stated, the data suggests D&D will open comfortably over $30M but may not exceed the $40M mark 

[Hiccup23]

3 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

When you think we’ll start seeing ticket sales for Evil Dead Rise?

I feel like next week. I am surprised they haven't opened them up yet with the flood of positive reviews. 

[titanic2187]

Quote

Current projection ranges call for a 15 to 24 percent decline from last weekend’s $112.2 million top ten aggregate.

 

I would say we already have steady flow of product in March but the aggregate gross is still awfully low. The past few weekends were coming near to $120m except Shazam OW. This still isn't what a "normal" market should look like. In fact, the last weekend when JW4 opened to 74m+, the aggregate weekend gross was only at $117m. I can't recall in which normal world, we can have a weekend number this low when your first place was already a 70m opener.  

[Landon1195]

Current predictions on Mario's opening weekend?

[Litio]

d

Edited May 24, 2023 by Litio

[el sid]

Dungeons & Dragons, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 157 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 133 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 78 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 56 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 68 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 370 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 403 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.265.

Up quite good 37% since yesterday.
Comps (both films counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): The Lost City (2.5M from previews) had 745 sold tickets = x1.7 = 4.25M.
Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.294 = 98% = 3.65M (but it improved from yesterday where it were only 3.2M/87% in comparison, D&D had the better Thursday jump and this will continue till Friday so not under 4M from that comp).
So both times over 4M + the early shows = 5-5.5M also from me.

Dungeons & Dragons, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 209 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 160 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 123 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 39 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 87 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 369 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 373 (13 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.360.

Up very good 47% since yesterday.
Comps (all three films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Snake Eyes (13.4M OW) had 787 sold tickets (and probably not the best walk-ups),
The Lost City (30.5M) had 695
and Uncharted (11.7 true Friday/44M OW) had 1.180 sold tickets = x1.15 (also an improvement) = 13.5M true Friday for D&D (maybe minus the Spider-Man bonus).

I also think that Tom Holland was an additional draw but presales-wise D&D is now in front on Friday. And the jumps till today were also very solid. So judging from my theaters 40M are possible.

Edited March 30, 2023 by el sid