The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, Channel83 said:

 

 

Is the ideal method for tracking to use the web browser version? Anytime I've done any sort of quick tracking using Fandango I use the app on my phone, and within one click you can see an entire theaters seat map in one graphic - ie: Clicking on burbank 16 dolby screen will show you every seat map for that day in one click. Super ideal

 

Couple of problems with that.  First off, I need to input numbers into a spreadsheet, which would mean switching around apps or switching between an app and a computer or something else.  But more to the point, I need to know the exact number of seats sold for each showing, and separating out that information/getting it quickly...  Well while everyone does it slightly differently, I do it via keyword searches and the way you describe won't lend itself to getting the information I want/need easily.  In fact, I'm reasonably sure I wouldn't be able to keyword search at all inside the Fandango app due to the walled garden nature of apps.

 

(also the iPad version of the Fandango app I have doesn't pull up every showing for an auditorium in one tap regardless)

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/30/2023 at 12:46 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	3964	32559	12.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-9

622

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-9

4

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
41	576	4480	12.9%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-9

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-9

1

 

COMP PREVIEWS:

JOHN WICK 4 (1.262x) ~$11M OD Previews 

 

It should be able to get to at least 1.8x of John Wick previews (assuming no massive late push) by T-1

 

That would put it at $16M OD 

 

Barring any disastrous early reactions, I'm pretty confident in $120M+ 5 day 

 

Since I'm only tracking Wednesday, I'm not sure how Thursday and Friday are looking. It is a family film so that should help it play well all throughout the weekend, even though it's behaving like a fan rush CBM here in Orlando. 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
167	4295	32958	12.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-6

331

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-6

3

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
41	618	4480	13.8%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-6

42

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-6

0

 

COMP PREVIEWS:

JOHN WICK 4 (1.366x) ~$12M OD Previews 

D&D (3.971x) ~$16M OD Previews 

 

 

Amazing daily pace. I'm thinking it can go higher than (2x) of John Wick T-0 for an ~$18M+ OD

 

Are we potentially look at a $140M+ 5 day here???? 😲

[Tinalera]

39 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
167	4295	32958	12.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-6

331

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-6

3

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
41	618	4480	13.8%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-6

42

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-6

0

 

COMP PREVIEWS:

JOHN WICK 4 (1.366x) ~$12M OD Previews 

D&D (3.971x) ~$16M OD Previews 

 

 

Amazing daily pace. I'm thinking it can go higher than (2x) of John Wick T-0 for an ~$18M+ OD

 

Are we potentially look at a $140M+ 5 day here???? 😲

Mario plus Easter Weekend seems to be a setting for something pretty interesting here.

[TheFlatLannister]

3 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Mario plus Easter Weekend seems to be a setting for something pretty interesting here.

Wednesday numbers are so strong...If it continues to play out like that throughout the weekend $150M+ could be in play. Or it could be over indexing here and or it could be preview heavy because of the hardcore fans

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Borja9198 said:

$4,1M Thursday Previews & $1,5M Amazon Previews (Deadline)

I suppose its 4.1M THU + WED, while earlier screenings around $1.5m

[Eric Duncan]

Quorum Updates

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-6: 60.37% Awareness, 6.39 Interest

Paint T-8: 22.75%, 5.02

The Pope's Exorcist T-15: 29.3%, 5.37

Chevalier T-22: 15.36%, 4.73

Evil Dead Rise T-22: 30.46%, 5.49

Big George Foreman T-29: 26.96%, 5.43

Barbie T-113: 36.52%, 4.68

The Expendables 4 T-176: 24.57%, 5.69

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-2: 47.02% Awareness, 5.28 Interest

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 42% chance of 10M, 13% chance of 20M, 6% chance of 30M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 30M, 33% chance of 40M

 

The Little Mermaid T-57: 56.8% Awareness, 6.02 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 62% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 60% chance of 100M

[Eric Duncan]

14 hours ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	210	3214	40562	7.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 559

 

Comp - T-6

1.505x of Sing 2 (14.65M)

3.456x of Sonic 2 (21.6M)

8.830x of Lightyear (45.91M)

9.343x of Minions 2 (100.44M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	210	3623	40562	8.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 409

 

Comp - T-5

1.652x of Sing 2 (16.08M)

3.535x of Sonic 2 (22.09M)

8.709x of Lightyear (45.29M)

8.565x of Minions 2 (92.07M)

[DAJK]

Anecdotal but I was talking to my old roommate today from college who is the biggest D&D fan I've ever met, and he was saying he's looking forward to seeing the movie, but him and his friends weren't planning to go until next week.

 

And it got me thinking. Maybe this "brand" films with established fanbases aren't necessarily front-loaded because of fan rush, but part of it has to do with avoiding spoilers (i.e. Marvel films recently). Sure, Harry Potter was frontloaded, but more so towards the end of the series when the core group of people who were already going to see the new installment was already established. 

 

For this movie, there's no "spoilers" anyone is trying to avoid. It isn't the eighth film in a film franchise that has had the same crowd going back to see each installment for 10 years. It's also very well-liked among audiences. Maybe these factors will counteract any sort of "fan rush" or front-loading, and this can play out like Uncharted did last year, and approach 150M domestic. Other than Mario, there isn't much in the way of competition for over a month.

[misterpepp]

Early access for Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret goes on sale April 5. Unsure if general sales start the same day or not.

[keysersoze123]

On 3/30/2023 at 9:27 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1

Midnights - 3594/33819 81792.54 169 shows

OD - 98134/1099151 1587071.56 6037 shows +9320

 

Really good increase today. Final surge definitely is there. midnights are almost a noise at this point. Even if it doubles and does well at other chains it should be under a million. 

 

Mario MTC1

Midnights - 3957/33819 89382.73 169 shows

OD - 110191/1100816 1768156.51 6063 shows +12057

 

Another solid day for sure. Since its a wednesday release not sure how much weekend will slow down. It basically has 4 days of presales and then walkups. Thinking 175k+ presales for sure. May be even 200K. 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, datpepper said:

Early access for Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret goes on sale April 5. Unsure if general sales start the same day or not.

I was surprised to see the long range forecast of $18-23m opening weekend for this. That would be fantastic. Is the book big in America? 

[xieh tie]

 

[Shawn Robbins]

On 3/31/2023 at 2:00 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

I suppose its 4.1M THU + WED, while earlier screenings around $1.5m

Ignore underlined, I misread Jat's post and can't strike through on mobile. Yep, Paramount confirmed this exact breakdown.

 

$4.1M from Thu only shows is what Paramount reported when I spoke with them.

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I was surprised to see the long range forecast of $18-23m opening weekend for this. That would be fantastic. Is the book big in America? 

The book is definitely a pop culture staple (the title alone has been parodied multiple times over the decades) and a popular read among young women, and its themes + target audience alone has resulted in book-banning and manufactured outrage throughout the years. The only thing surprising is that it's taken 50+ years after release for Hollywood to make an adaptation, unless Judy Blume was really hesitant about selling the film rights to her works.

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/29/2023 at 11:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Megaplex

 

T-7 Wednesday(171 showings): 4562(+461)/53894

 

T-8 Thursday(169 showings): 1449(+174)/53248

0.627x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (43.62M)*

 

T-9 Friday(167 showings): 2268(+171)/52516

0.895x Ant-Man 3 T-9 (26.26M)

0.678x Thor L&T T-9 (27.50M)

 

T-10 Saturday(169 showings): 2531(+175)/53569

1.41x Ant-Man 3 T-10 (47.94M)

1.44x Thor L&T T-10 (60.52M)

 

Numbers are from 6 hours ago

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

Mario Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-5 Wednesday(187 showings): 5913(+1351)/53894

 

T-6 Thursday(186 showings): 2031(+582)/53248

 

T-7 Friday(187 showings): 3076(+808)/52516

1.12x Ant-Man 3 T-7 (32.40M)

 

T-8 Saturday(187 showings): 2963(+432)/53569

1.47x Ant-Man 3 T-8 (49.84M)

 

Numbers are from yesterday evening

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/29/2023 at 11:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Drafthouse

 

T-7 Wednesday(192 showings): 5920(+615)/31277

 

T-8 Thursday(187 showings): 3504(+246)/30534

 

T-9 Friday(196 showings): 7330(+488)/31157

 

T-10 Saturday(204 showings): 7622(+383)/32385

Mario Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-5 Wednesday(194 showings): 7347(+1427)/31459

 

T-6 Thursday(196 showings): 4653(+1149)/31240

 

T-7 Friday(210 showings): 8978(+1648)/32723

 

T-8 Saturday(217 showings): 8600(+978)/33770

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, Shawn said:

Yep, Paramount confirmed this exact breakdown. $1.5M from all pre-Thursday shows combined.

Jat is suggesting that Paramount misspoke and rolled wed into th for 4.1 (rather than into pre-wed shows to get 1.5). Something like:

pre-wed 1.5

wed .5

th 3.6

 

So your first sentence which is confirming his post is at odds with the 2nd which is confirming the prior reporting (something like 1.1 pre-wed, .4 wed, 4.1 th — we don’t actually know wed just using notional figs).

Edited April 1, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[Tinalera]

Mario Brothers

Thurs April 6 Fri April 7 (T-6) (

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	3	21	236	4481	4717	0.0500
	Fri	3	20	718	3898	4616	0.1555
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	37	213	7109	7322	0.0290
	Fri	4	26	930	4515	5445	0.1707

 

Missed a couple of days of tracking. Like previous shows were added thurs and fri, brought the percentage down on thursday due to increased inventory but friday still is huge. 15 and 17 percent for holiday friday is pretty darn good.

[Theonlytman2]

2 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-5 Wednesday(187 showings): 5913(+1351)/53894

 

T-6 Thursday(186 showings): 2031(+582)/53248

 

T-7 Friday(187 showings): 3076(+808)/52516

1.12x Ant-Man 3 T-7 (32.40M)

 

T-8 Saturday(187 showings): 2963(+432)/53569

1.47x Ant-Man 3 T-8 (49.84M)

 

Numbers are from yesterday evening

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

Very good numbers! Considering that Mario is a family movie, I wonder if on-day sales will be stronger than Ant-Man's. Either way, there's definitely a surge of Nintendo fans. If there's excellent WOM + good showings on Easter, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a $150M opening. (5 Day)

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Jat is suggesting that Paramount misspoke and rolled wed into th for 4.1 (rather than into pre-wed shows to get 1.5). Something like:

pre-wed 1.5

wed .5

th 3.6

 

So your first sentence which is confirming his post is at odds with the 2nd which is confirming the prior reporting (something like 1.1 pre-wed, .4 wed, 4.1 th — we don’t actually know wed just using notional figs).

Ahh, I misread his post.

 

So yeah, Paramount's exact reporting was $5.6M initially. When I spoke directly with them to get a breakdown, they stated $4.1M for Thursday only.