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Pypa94

Poland Box Office | Avatar: The Way of Water is HUGE

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Little Nicolas is supposedly much worse than the first part. TBH I'm surprised by the result but a bad weather long weekend means parents have to do something with their kids. Cinema is often the obvious option.

 

I also underestimated Tinker Bell. They marketed it smartly as something different than another Tinkerbel movie but I wonder when franchise fatigue will set in. Especially since the next movie is schedguled to enter the cinemas in 6 months. 

 

As for EX3 - the result is bad but the drop compared to other countries isn't as steep so I say it's still decent. 

 

LUCY - The first place opening doesn't surprise me (though I expected less) but I wonder how steep the drop will be. On the bright side it has no competition till sin city 2 (it's 2 weeks of close to no big releases) but on the other hand people are really confused by the movie. 6.6 on filmweb is a low grade for an effects heavy movie (recent YA flops were rated higher)

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HTTYD 2 numbers after weekend 964 397 admissions.

 

They will make more during the week. Though now the numbers may drop compared to previous week due to the fact that parents may be strapped for cash. I also wonder what's with Barbie being released cinematically and how many copies it will take from other animated movies.

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Weekend numbers ( 22-24 August 2014 )

 

    [*]Les Vacances du petit Nicolas   68 287 / 238 230 [*]The Pirate Fairy     65 402 / 274 313 [*]Lucy 62 483 / 299 728 [*]Magic in the Moonlight     57 559 / 65 960 [*]The Giver   35 674 / 35 674 [*]The Expendables 3       18 480 / 91 770 [*]Guardians of the Galaxy           17 851 / 319 849 [*]Sex Tape                                             15 997 / 238 835 [*]The Hundred-Foot Journey               8746 / 89 640 [*]Into the Storm                     8607 / 109 564

Petit Nicolas - tiny drop gave us a new number one movie in box office. This one is doing way better then the first movie so finish above 400k admissions shouldn't be a problem.

The Pirate Fairy - bigger drop then expected but it still should end up with over 500k admissions.

Lucy - under 50% drop should be considered a success. It's doing really good so far and with some good drops it might have a chance to reach 500k admissions.

Magic in the Moonlight - another success for Woody Allen in Poland.This should do >300k admissions.

The Giver - decent start but it will probably fade away fast. Maybe 100k-150k admissions in the end.

The Expendables 3 - yeah this one will drop big from earlier movies.

GOTG - still doing very good but might miss 400k admissions.

Sex Tape - it's going and going and going. It might reach 300k admissions and that would be quite a suprise.

THFJ - looks like it legs have gone south. Still 100k admissions will be passed.

 

 

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Weekend numbers ( 22-24 August 2014 )

 

    [*]Les Vacances du petit Nicolas   68 287 / 238 230

    [*]The Pirate Fairy     65 402 / 274 313

    [*]Lucy 62 483 / 299 728

    [*]Magic in the Moonlight     57 559 / 65 960

    [*]The Giver   35 674 / 35 674

    [*]The Expendables 3       18 480 / 91 770

    [*]Guardians of the Galaxy           17 851 / 319 849

    [*]Sex Tape                                             15 997 / 238 835

    [*]The Hundred-Foot Journey               8746 / 89 640

    [*]Into the Storm                     8607 / 109 564

Petit Nicolas - tiny drop gave us a new number one movie in box office. This one is doing way better then the first movie so finish above 400k admissions shouldn't be a problem.

The Pirate Fairy - bigger drop then expected but it still should end up with over 500k admissions.

Lucy - under 50% drop should be considered a success. It's doing really good so far and with some good drops it might have a chance to reach 500k admissions.

Magic in the Moonlight - another success for Woody Allen in Poland.This should do >300k admissions.

The Giver - decent start but it will probably fade away fast. Maybe 100k-150k admissions in the end.

The Expendables 3 - yeah this one will drop big from earlier movies.

GOTG - still doing very good but might miss 400k admissions.

Sex Tape - it's going and going and going. It might reach 300k admissions and that would be quite a suprise.

THFJ - looks like it legs have gone south. Still 100k admissions will be passed.

 

I doubt that's a Success for Allen. Last time he scored <60k opening it was Before Before Midnight. Now he has a steady fanbase and he was consistently doing blockbuster openings.

 

THFJ - let's wait for later months. It probably lost a lot since the target group is the same as with Allen, maybe in later weeks the drop will be smaller. 

 

The Giver is a surprise. It's still bad and worse than the host which ended <170k but a black and white YA movie in a market where people dislike everything YA not named Hunger Games or Twilight? It was a hard sell from the begining.

 

 

Dragon is at 977

Edited by norbar
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I think it's still a good opening for Magic in the Moonlight. It's not 100k admissions his last few movies opened but it should have good legs.

 

All of the people I asked about it hated the movie, the reviews are bad. The multiplier compared to other Allen movies will be low. The rating on Filmweb so far is decent but comparable to blue jasmine and if it gets the same multiplier it's not awesome. Also the topics on filmweb bash the movie for the most part.

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Well my sister liked the movie and she watches every Woody Allen movie, so it might not be as bad as Filmweb score makes it.

 

BTW what do you think about Miasto 44 Box Office chances? I'm still not sure if this is going to be huge hit or a flop like "Walesa" or "Bitwa Warszawska".

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Well my sister liked the movie and she watches every Woody Allen movie, so it might not be as bad as Filmweb score makes it.

 

BTW what do you think about Miasto 44 Box Office chances? I'm still not sure if this is going to be huge hit or a flop like "Walesa" or "Bitwa Warszawska".

 

Depends on how do you define flop. Bitwa Warszawska was a success if you think how bad the movie was and how much people hated it. Also it still did more than any movie released this year.

 

The real problem is that movie had an insane budget and it should get 3m+ viewers. That's not possible in today's market. There market is way more staturated right now and you have big competition every weekend. Also the next 2 weeks after Miasto 44 you have 2 other huge releases. VUE which owns one cinema network releases Służby Specialne and Next which is agora so cinemas + outdoor + newspapers releases Bogowie which acording to the industry insiders is very good.

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Bitwa Warszawska from Box Office perspective wasn't a moneymaker.

 

I agree that Miasto 44 budget is huge for polish standards and to make profits they will need at least 2.5 million admissions.

 

But I also think they will be able to co-exist with Sluzby specjalne and Bogowie. One is opening on 3rd weekend and second is opening on 4th weekend of Miasto 44 so that movie might already be above 2 milion admission by that time ( of course if it gets hype from viewers ). So far Miasto 44 has mixed reviews from critics and better reviews from normal viewers.

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Bitwa Warszawska from Box Office perspective wasn't a moneymaker.

 

I agree that Miasto 44 budget is huge for polish standards and to make profits they will need at least 2.5 million admissions.

 

But I also think they will be able to co-exist with Sluzby specjalne and Bogowie. One is opening on 3rd weekend and second is opening on 4th weekend of Miasto 44 so that movie might already be above 2 milion admission by that time ( of course if it gets hype from viewers ). So far Miasto 44 has mixed reviews from critics and better reviews from normal viewers.

 

The first estimates for Miasto were 4mil viewers.

 

As for coexisting with other movies I think you are overestimating the potential here. Outside of the hobbit movies which are released in a great period of time no movie has made above 2 mil in quite a few years. Kamienie na szaniec and Powstanie Warszawskie both opened much lower than what Miasto would have to open to make 2 mil in 3 weeks (600k+ opening). 

 

Also there is already some controversy surrounding the movie. Not as big as with Kamienie na szaniec where the right wing attacked the movie for sex scenes and ambivalent tone but all the people I know who have seen it claim it's even more anti uprising and it has waay more sex. That may translate to some problems with the consiervative crowd. 

 

 

As for Bitwa Warszawska - I know they were expecting much more but if you look at it from todays perspective it's a really good result. Though I'd say that's more thanks to the marketing than because of the movie

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Well Kamienie na Szaniec still did over 800k admissions and I don't think anyone expected such a good result.

 

Miasto 44 will probably open in like 400+ copies and has big marketing going for it. It has a big chance for 500k+ opening. And let's remember that this is one of those productions that schools will go and see it during the week.

Edited by chimpo
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Well Kamienie na Szaniec still did over 800k admissions and I don't think anyone expected such a good result.

 

Miasto 44 will probably open in like 400+ copies and has big marketing going for it. It has a big chance for 500k+ opening. And let's remember that this is one of those productions that schools will go and see it during the week.

 

Everyone expected more. Remember it's required reading in schools and schools can easily translate to 400-500k viewers alone. Everyone knows the book in Poland and the movie was well reviewed plus it had a really strong marketing push. I think if the PR was handled better and it had less controversy 1mil + was easily possible.

 

You were surprised Kamienie did 800k while say Miasto will do 2/3 of it's admissions in 3 days while both movies feature the same advantages. Miasto is basicly a bigger version of Kamienie na Szaniec.

 

btw. Schools don't always go for premiere week. They bring results but over a long run

Edited by norbar
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Weekend numbers ( 29-31 August 2014 )

 

    [*]Les Vacances du petit Nicolas     51 768 / 370 552 [*]The Pirate Fairy     42 742 / 377 352 [*]Lucy 41 374 / 405 620 [*]Magic in the Moonlight     32 611/ 155 730 [*]The Giver   29 656 / 111 925 [*]Barbie and The Secret Door 19 699 / 19 699 [*]Guardians of the Galaxy           13 631 / 352 796 [*]Sex Tape                                             10 479 / 265 078 [*]The Expendables 3       9 598 / 119 979 [*]Boyhood 7 624 / 7 624

 

 

Petit Nicolas - it's hold are very strong so far and it seems that 500k+ is were it's heading. Big suprise.

The Pirate Fairy - it's hold well too and it also should pass 500k admissions.

Lucy - looks like another 500k+ movie. I wonder if anyone expected Lucy to do so well?

Magic in the Moonlight - yeah this won't be Woody's greatest hit in Poland but it's still doing ok.

The Giver - good hold. Suprisingly this might have some legs afterall.

Barbie - well this probably made more then it would ever do on DVD so it's a success for the distributor.

GOTG - holds are good and thanks to that it's now a big success for a comic book movie

Sex Tape - this is way beyond what I thought this movie could do. That's a suprise.

TE3 - get to da choppa!

Boyhood -  small number of copies and small avg per copy. Nothing to talk about.

 

And Dragon should be very close to that  1 million ticket.

Edited by chimpo
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Weekend numbers ( 29-31 August 2014 )

 

    [*]Les Vacances du petit Nicolas     51 768 / 370 552

    [*]The Pirate Fairy     42 742 / 377 352

    [*]Lucy 41 374 / 405 620

    [*]Magic in the Moonlight     32 611/ 155 730

    [*]The Giver   29 656 / 101 925*

    [*]Barbie and The Secret Door 19 699 / 19 699

    [*]Guardians of the Galaxy           13 631 / 352 796

    [*]Sex Tape                                             10 479 / 265 078

    [*]The Expendables 3       9 598 / 119 979

    [*]Boyhood 7 624 / 7 624

* local website has a wrong number, but I guess they forgot one zero. I will update this later.

 

Petit Nicolas - it's hold are very strong so far and it seems that 500k+ is were it's heading. Big suprise.

The Pirate Fairy - it's hold well too and it also should pass 500k admissions.

Lucy - looks like another 500k+ movie. I wonder if anyone expected Lucy to do so well?

Magic in the Moonlight - yeah this won't be Woody's greatest hit in Poland but it's still doing ok.

The Giver - good hold. Suprisingly this might have some legs afterall.

Barbie - well this probably made more then it would ever do on DVD so it's a success for the distributor.

GOTG - holds are good and thanks to that it's now a big success for a comic book movie

Sex Tape - this is way beyond what I thought this movie could do. That's a suprise.

TE3 - get to da choppa!

Boyhood -  small number of copies and small avg per copy. Nothing to talk about.

 

And Dragon should be very close to that  1 million ticket.

 

 

Lucy seems to be this year "Now you see me". Openly no one is raving about the movie but the premise is so interesting people are still comming and that should explain the small drops.

 

Boyhood makes me a bit sad but UIP has no idea how to sell smaller movies that rely more on PR than big marketing spending. Though it could have very strong legs. Given how there is almost nothing to see untill Miasto 44 and the first movie for a more demanding viewer comes in over a month a 8-10x multiplier is possible. 

 

 

Also I think everyone should look here and see that releasing just before dump periods (late august - early sept) is a great idea since you face no competition in later months which translates to smaller drops.

 

 

btw. HFT is at 105k viewers. Should cross 120k easily. Maybe 130k.

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