poland Poland Box Office | Avatar: The Way of Water is HUGE

[Pypa94]

I checked our biggest database about movies filmweb.pl (similar to IMDB) with interest of upcoming movies.

For MAY is something like that:

1. Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile - 18 937 - premiere: 10th of May

2. Aladdin - 14 409 - premiere: 24th of May

3. John Wick 3 - 13 905 - premiere: 17th of May

4. Pokemon: Detective Pikachu - 13 710 - premiere: 31st of may

5. Tolkien - 12 455 - premiere: 17th of May

 

I don't think that means OW will be in that order, especially Aladdin and Detective Pikachu that we should consider as animation for kids (older but still kids) so not many "want to see" clicks here.

 

To reference Avengers: Endgame has now 24 564 "want to see" and 59 884 votes with a rating. (at least 2/3 of votes were "want to see" before)

 

I checked also for every announced premiere how many "want to see" votes they have, here is top 10.

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 39 513 premiere: 9th of August

2. The Lion King - 25 748 - 19th of July

3. Dark Phoenix - 21 743 - 7th of June

4. Joker - 21 622 - 4th of October

4. Spider-Man: Far From Home - 20 432 - 5th of July

5. Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile - 18 937 - 10th of May

6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 17 488 - 19th of December

7. Toy Story 4 - 16 217 - 9th of August

8. Aladdin - 14 409 - 24th of May

9. John Wick 3 - 13 905 - 17th of May

10. Pokemon: Detective Pikachu - 13 710 - 31st of May

[Pypa94]

Actuals of 3rd-5th of Mat

#1 Avengers: Endgame 

232 747 (-57,5%) cume: 1 419 410

NEW: 

#2 Pet Sematary 57 723 (best OW for horror movie this year)

#10 Iron Sky: Invasion 6 496 (1/2 OW of first Iron Sky in 2012)

Rest (numbers in table I'll add later):

#3 Missing Link

#4 Dumbo

#5 After

#6 Manou - flieg' flink!

#7 Vox Lux

#8 Green Book

#9 Miłość i miłosierdzie (local)

And the promissed table: 

Edited May 13, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

BOM update gross for Avengers: Endgame after 2nd weekend

Avengers: Infinity War 

2nd weekend: $932 130 ~ lc 3 310 926 (-63,6%), cume: $5 070 284 ~ lc 18 009 649 

Avengers: Endgame 

2nd weekend: $1 422 284 ~ lc 5 432 129 (-69,6% from 5 days OW; +52,6% over $IW; lc +64,1%) cume: $8 106 354 ~ lc 30 960 598 (+59,9% over $IW; lc +71,9%)

-------

Still USD is higher (about 8%) than last year, so advantage over IW in lc is even more impressive than in USD

ATP $6,11 ~ lc 23,34 (higher ATP than on OW 🤔 maybe they split double features between IW and EG that's why OW ATP could be so low)

-------

But even with that IW currency advantage, EG has already beaten final gross of IW ($7 367 423)

 

Edited May 10, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

AVENGERS: ENDGAME

Road to 2 million

source: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/avengers-nadal-rzadzi-w-polskich-kinach/

As I mentioned in previous posts if Endgame follows Infinity War it will hit 2 million tickets sold at the end (even 2,1 million). 

But the same as in many countries EG is more frontloaded than its predecessor so I predicted final admission number on 1,9 million (still HUGE here).

BOZG team analyzed in past couple years what is a probability for EG to top 2 million adm. 

In the last 6 years, only 6 movies had more admissions after 2nd weekend than EG (Kler (local) was 2,5 million after 2nd WE so it's not good comparison here and it's not in the table), another 5 were a bit lower but within 40k difference at most. 

What is encouraging  - only 2 of them didn't reach 2-million-milestone (Hobbit 2 and FSOG - both with mixed and bad WOM, FSoG only that big because of Valentine's Day boost) and both were lower after the 2nd weekend. But there another side of the coin, EG has the lowest 2nd weekend of all those movies. 

Here in the table full comparison of those movies in recent years.

Title	Adm. after 2nd WE	Adm. in 2nd WE	Adm. cume
Pitbull. Niebezpieczne kobiety (local)	1 653 378	454 488	2 884 415*
Listy do M. 3 (local)	1 623 149	493 190	3 013 235
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies	1 613 006	320 034	2 243 204
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	1 555 916	422 088	3 009 949*
Botoks (local)	1 458 609	392 199	2 319 702
Avengers: Endgame	1 419 410	232 747	????
Listy do M. 2 (local)	1 417 275	434 401	2 968 327
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug	1 401 575	241 202	1 930 793
Fifty Shades of Grey	1 388 491	242 044	1 814 116
Kobiety mafii (local)	1 384 563	388 943	2 037 202
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	1 380 851	258 789	2 111 569*

 

*including re-releases - without them still 2 million reached!

CHANCES for 2 million - 35%, final range: 1,9-2,05 million adm.

[Pypa94]

 

 

1

On 5/8/2019 at 1:04 AM, Pypa94 said:

2nd weekdays (Mon-Thur): 115k (-69%; post-holiday drop), 2nd week total: 1,534 million

3rd weekend (10-12th): 105k (-55%) --> cume after 3rd weekend: 1,639 million (facing The Curse of La Llorona, Wonder Park, Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile- they will take some older and some younger and some teenagers)

I think I was a bit too optimistic with over 100k numbers. Avengers: Endgame should remain 1st spot but the drop was steeper.

All new movies should be in top 10 but far from EG.

#1 EG (-61%)

#2 Wonder Park NEW

#3 The Curse of La Llorona NEW

#4 Five Feet Apart NEW

#5 Long Shot NEW

#6 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile NEW

#7 Pet Sematary (-53%)

#8 Missing Link (-57%)

#9 Słodki koniec dnia (local) NEW

#10 Dumbo (-51%)

source: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/avengers-koniec-gry-juz-ponizej-100-tys-w-weekend-prognoza-weekendowa/

[Pypa94]

AVENGERS: ENDGAME #2 highest movie of the year in Poland!

3rd WE

est. 101k (-56,5%) cume: est. 1,62M

On 5/8/2019 at 1:04 AM, Pypa94 said:

3rd weekend (10-12th): 105k (-55%) --> cume after 3rd weekend: 1,639 million

so I was a quite correct in WE adm. but it seems like weekdays were weaker than I thought (bigger post-holiday drop)

Actuals tomorrow (or I should say today) about 6 pm local time

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

Weekend 10-12th of May actuals

#   | Movie                                  |Distr.          |Adm. WE|Drop/gain| Last WE    | Weekdays| Screens    | Average   |Cume adm.| Week

#1 Avengers: Endgame 

#2 Wonder Park NEW

#3 The Curse of La Llorona NEW

#4 Long Shot NEW

#5 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile NEW

#6 Five Feet Apart NEW

#7 Słodki koniec dnia (local) NEW

#8 Pet Sematary 

#9 Missing Link

#10 After

-----------

Avengers: Endgame hold is quite good considering much better weather than last WE and Holiday boost in previous WE. Weekdays were a bit harsh lower than last week but no holidays this time. Cume now is 2nd highest in 2019. 

It is now about 400k (+32%) more than final IW adm., pacing 63,3% over IW in the same point of release, a final advantage over IW should be between 55-60% (63% in somehow manage 2 million). IW dropped only 40,1% last year but it was facing 4 new movies (Rampage OW was highest but still lower than lowest OW this weekend) instead of 6 like EG - the competition was way stronger. 

It has a similar path as The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug here although it had Christmas holiday and then January so more favorable for movies time than the middle of May (even if the weather is as bad as now it is). After 2nd WE EG had 18k more than Hobbit 2 and after 3rd WE it has 17k less. After 4th WE Hobbit 2 had 1,768M which is probably impossible for EG (only 25% week-to-week drop), Hobbit 2 late legs were horrible and in the end it failed to manage 2 million. 

Considering everything it is still pacing 1,9M adm. It will be hurt next week by Aladdin, we will see how much though (IW had DP2)

 

NEW MOVIES:

Wonder Park good OW, it heading to 300k final.

La Llorona - slightly worse than Pet Sematary, huge drop next week.

Long Shot - best OW for Seth Rogen here, he is well known here but his movies aren't popular (I know weird) but it could first his movie over 200k.

Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile - the same with Zac Efron: quite popular here, OW is better than e.g. Baywatch.

Five Feet Apart in line with expectations.

The local movie was a bit better than in the forecast.

 

HOLDOVERS:

Pet Sematary - huuge drop but in next weeks should hold better than La Llorona (average WOM for both but still Pet Sematary higher)

Missing Link - huuge drop too but its final gross could neck-to-neck with Wonder Park.

After with the best hold in top 10 and overall quite good too.

Dumbo dropped out from top 10, hurt by Wonder Park.

 

NEXT WE:

John Wick 3

Tolkien

Breath (Australia)

Doubles vies (France)

Let's Dance

Zlogonje (limited; Serbia)

 

sources: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/avengersendgame-coraz-dalej-od-2-mln-wysyp-nowosci-podsumowanie-weekendu/

https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,414

 

 

 

Edited May 15, 2019 by Pypa94
add sources

[Pypa94]

https://deadline.com/2019/05/john-wick-chapter-3-hits-35m-in-overseas-bow-pikachu-nears-300m-global-as-endgame-tops-2-6b-ww-international-box-office-1202618380/

Strong holds came from Japan (-33%), Peru (-36%), Denmark (-41%), Spain (-43%), Chile (-43%), Colombia (-43%), Australia (-46%), Poland (-48%), Ecuador (-48%), Singapore (-49%), UK (-50%), Norway (-50%) and South Africa (-50%).

As per Deadline Avengers: Endgame had a very good hold  

In my forecast, I was thinking a similar drop (-46%) because of John Wick 1 and 2 no big deal here but it seems that John Wick 3 is bigger than combined 1+2 OW, still it didn't have a large impact on EG hold and of course storms across the country helped a bit.

We will see how it goes with actuals on Wednesday

EDIT: With that drop, EG now is about 1,720 million adm. still hard to say if 2 million possible of not. I would say OW of Dark Phoenix will be crucial. If it drops out from top 10 then, 2 million will be out of range.

Edited May 20, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

As per BOM after 3rd weekend

Avengers: Endgame has collected $9,215,075. It is running 50,5% over IW gross at the same moment. It is also 25% over IW final gross.

EG has in lc 35,242,133 which is 61% ahead of IW and 51% over IW final gross in lc.

 

 

 

On 5/10/2019 at 3:43 PM, Pypa94 said:

BOM update gross for Avengers: Endgame after 2nd weekend

(...)

Avengers: Endgame 

2nd weekend: (...) (+59,9% over $IW; lc +71,9%)

As we can see it is slowing down a bit, it is facing worse drops that IW but still overall is a huge success for EG!

Edited May 20, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

Avengers: Endgame vs Infinity War 4th WE comparison

Adm.: est. 53,5k vs 47 315

Drop: -48% vs -40,1%

Cume: est. 1,720M vs 1 095 696

Facing: John Wick 3 (OW est. 80k) and 4 minors vs Deadpool 2 (OW 209 194) and 1 minor

After 4th WE IW added almost 130k (about 12% of cume after 4th WE) ---> EG with same legs: 205k and cume 1,925M

But EG is suffering worse legs than IW so 1,9M is more possible. I would say less than 10% chance for 2 million ATM.

[danhtruong5]

52 minutes ago, Pypa94 said:

https://deadline.com/2019/05/john-wick-chapter-3-hits-35m-in-overseas-bow-pikachu-nears-300m-global-as-endgame-tops-2-6b-ww-international-box-office-1202618380/

Strong holds came from Japan (-33%), Peru (-36%), Denmark (-41%), Spain (-43%), Chile (-43%), Colombia (-43%), Australia (-46%), Poland (-48%), Ecuador (-48%), Singapore (-49%), UK (-50%), Norway (-50%) and South Africa (-50%).

As per Deadline Avengers: Endgame had a very good hold  

In my forecast, I was thinking a similar drop (-46%) because of John Wick 1 and 2 no big deal here but it seems that John Wick 3 is bigger than combined 1+2 OW, still it didn't have a large impact on EG hold and of course storms across the country helped a bit.

We will see how it goes with actuals on Wednesday

EDIT: With that drop, EG now is about 1,720 million adm. still hard to say if 2 million possible of not. I would say OW of Dark Phoenix will be crucial. If it drops out from top 10 then, 2 million will be out of range.

Can we know the total cume based on number of adm? 

[Pypa94]

5 hours ago, danhtruong5 said:

Can we know the total cume based on number of adm? 

Do you mean gross? 

If so we have it only thanks to BOM update and then true lc in 2 months with monthly top 20 revealed 

[Pypa94]

WE 17th-19th of May ACTUALS

• John Wick 3 on TOP!
• No other new movie in the top 10
• Good holds across top 10 (except The Course of La Llorona)
• Avengers: Endgame with 48,64% drop (best so far for it)

#1 John Wick 3

#2 Avengers: Endgame

#3 Wonder Park

#4 Five Feet Apart

#5 Long Shot

#6 The Course of La Llorona

#7 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile

#8 (local)

#9 Pet Sematary

#10 Missing Link

---------------------

John Wick 3 with biggest franchise OW! With previews, it almost beat John Wick and it is 45% of final John Wick 2!

OW was respectively 202% (!) and 62% better! After that John Wick 3 is heading over 300k, 3x bigger than part 1 and over 50% bigger than part 2.

Very good result!

 

NEW MOVIES:

Let’s Dance (France) 3 791 adm./about 100 screens

Doubles vies (France) 6 214/??

Tolkien 5 298/??

 

HOLDOVERS:

Avengers: Endgame hold slice worse than IW last year (48,6% vs 44,1%) - IW faced Deadpool 2 (OW much bigger than JW3 although other movies were weaker a lot) - it's the best WE-to-WE hold so far for EG. Unfortunately 2 million for 98% out of range  

Others: good hold for #2-4 but numbers meh (although last year numbers were meh-er 😜)

Wonder Park with 100k milestone (worth mentioned).

The Course of La Llorona with an expected big drop, as well as Pet Sematary.

Missing Link with 200k milestone - biggest for Laika studio in Poland.

 

NEXT WE:

Aladdin - saturated (for sure TOP next WE)

Brightburn - very wide

Pupille (France) - very wide

Большое путешествие (Russia) - very wide

Gloria Bell - wide

寝ても覚めても [Asako I & II] (Japan) - limited

Nos batailles (Belgium, France) - limited

 

sources: 

http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/john-wick-po-raz-pierwszy-na-szczycie-polskiego-box-officeu-podsumowanie-weekendu/

https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,415

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

WE 24th-26th of May ACTUALS

• Aladdin debuts on 1st but with mediocre numbers
• Other new movies: nothing good
• Good hold: John Wick 3
• Very good hold but weak numbers: Five Feet Apart and Long Shot
• Avengers: Endgame with 50,24% drop - moderate drop

#1 Aladdin

#2 John Wick 3

#3 Avengers: Endgame

#4 Wonder Park

#5 Five Feet Apart

#6 Long Shot

#7 Большое путешествие

#8 Gloria Bell

#9 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile

#10 Brightburn

---------------------

Aladdin with lower numbers than Dumbo, big disappoint. 

 

NEW MOVIES:

Большое путешествие extremely bad considering wide OW

Gloria Bell expected

Brightburn slightly below expectation 

 

HOLDOVERS:

Avengers: Endgame goodbye 2 million tickets  but still big numbers overall

John Wick 3 just 16k from a total of John Wick 2

 

NEXT WE:

CHILDREN'S DAY on Saturday 1st of June - most of the movies expected with huge increases 

Detective Pikachu - saturated (for sure TOP next WE)

UglyDolls - very wide

The Convent - wide

Dzień czekolady (local) - wide

The Sun Is Also a Star - limited

Sauvage (France) - limited

Pestkop (Netherlands) - limited

 

sources: 

http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/aladyn-wygrywa-ale-ze-slabym-wynikiem-podsumowanie-weekendu/

https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,416

[Pypa94]

WE 31st-2nd of June ACTUALS

• Detective Pikachu with huge OW numbers!
• Aladdin with the expected increase #2
• UglyDolls - quite good OW
• New movies: weak
• Big increase: Wonder Park and Большое путешествие
• Avengers: Endgame excellent drop!
• John Wick 3 another good drop
• Five Feet Apart small numbers but holding good

#1 Detective Pikachu

#2 Aladdin

#3 UglyDolls

#4 Wonder Park

#5 Большое путешествие

#6 John Wick 3

#7 Avengers: Endgame

#8 Five Feet Apart

#9 The Convent

#10 (local)

---------------------

Detective Pikachu with #8 biggest OW of the year (1k below Captain Marvel)

 

NEW MOVIES:

UglyDolls good numbers boosted by Children's Day

The Convent weak

Dzień czekolady (local) very weak

 

HOLDOVERS:

Avengers: Endgame still fighting but only for 1,9 million now

John Wick 3 already best of series and counting

 

NEXT WE:

Dark Phoenix - very wide

Rocketman - wide

Dronningen (Dennmark, Sweden) - limited

 

sources: 

http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/detektyw-pikachu-zdecydowanym-zwyciezca-w-dzien-dziecka-podsumowanie-weekendu/

https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,417

[Pypa94]

WE 7th-9th of June ACTUALS

• Detective Pikachu still on top but huge (although expected) drop
• Dark Phoenix with quite good OW considering X-Men is weak here
• Rocketman disappoints big
• Big drops overall except eg. John Wick 3 and again Five Feet Apart
• Avengers: Endgame collapsing (heading 1875k)
• Aladdin crosses 300k, UglyDolls 100k

#1 Detective Pikachu

#2 Dark Phoenix

#3 Aladdin

#4 Rocketman

#5 UglyDolls

#6 John Wick 3

#7 Five Feet Apart

#8 Avengers: Endgame

#9 The Convent

#10 Большое путешествие

---------------------

Detective Pikachu over 400k and heading max. 900k 

Dark Phoenix with 23% lower OW than X-Men: Apocalypse

Comparison with other X-Men movies: from top: The Last Bastion, First Class, Days of Future Past, Apocalypse, Dark Phoenix

 

NEW MOVIES:

Rocketman weak weak weak

 

HOLDOVERS:

Avengers: Endgame struggle to get 1,9 million

John Wick 3 heading 350k maybe (a big increase from 2nd part)

 

NEXT WE:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters - very wide/saturated

Men in Black: International - very wide

Red Joan - wide

Krew Boga (local) - wide

Marnies Welt (Belgium, Germany) - wide

 

sources: 

http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/wysokie-temperatury-na-zewnatrz-niska-frekwencja-w-kinach-podsumowanie-weekendu/

https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,418

[Aristis]

Same as in the romanian Thread there hasn't been an update in a long time...

 

Frozen 2 had a big OW of 619k, just 9k behind the 10th biggest ever and more than 4x the OW of Frozen 1 (151k). F1 had some great holds to get to 1,13M+ (total after the last WE in Top10). F2 reached that after only two weeks though...

 

F2:

#1 619k

#2 405k (-35%) 1,261M

#3 388k (-4%) 1,866M

 

In the last years there have been some great holds this time too, but I don't understand much from polish BO (and couldn't find anything on why holds are great this time) and therefore don't know if this alreasy was the last one or there is another before dropping 70%+...

 

1	387.917	-4%	1.865.767	3	Frozen 2
2	180.408	-10%	503.901	2	Jak poslubic milionera
3	105.038	---	125.010	1	Arctic Dogs
4	69.327	-2%	197.482	2	Knives Out
5	34.192	---	37.730	1	Ailos Reise
6	28.230	-44%	571.950	4	Proceder
7	25.242	-33	475.087	4	1800 gramow
8	22.894	+57%	988.137	6	Maleficent 2
9	21.004	---	27.310	1	Saving Flora
10	18.367	+	37.137	3	Julemandens datter

 

Top10 2019:

1	2.488.502	The Lion King
2	2.387.417	Miszmasz czyli Kogel Mogel 3
3	1.911.478	Joker
4	1.869.767	Polityka
5	1.865.767	Frozen 2
6	1.838.596	Avengers: Endgame
7	1.433.565	Planeta Singli 3
8	1.405.926	Pets 2
9	1.338.266	Boze Cialo
10	1.206.802	HTTYD3

 

Frozen2 will pass 2M next WE and with another great hold has a chance to top TLK.

 

http://www.insidekino.de/BO/PL2019.htm

[Pypa94]

If you want to know more about Polish Box Office I recommend you that site: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/

Just use google translation and most of things will be clear  

Unfortunately I didn't have time to update the thread 😕 

Thanks @Aristis for last post

Novemember/December are months were good weather is usually over, so it is good time for new movies  

What's more we had Santa's Day on 6th so family movies (and others too) had soft drops or even increases.

Next weekend was usually dead but since Star Wars movies are released on that particular weekend (one wkd before Christmas) - they are massive nowadays.

This year because of Christmas in the middle of week there won't be +70% drop weekend for sure (the worst weekend in the year is always a weekend with Easter but Chirstmas Eve on Saturday ruins movies as well).

• As for Star Wars is really great that slowest day will be Christmas Eve on Tuesday which really doesn't matter because it is Tuesday, Thursday 26th on the other hand will be massive and we can expect kind of soft drop on wkd after Christmas  I think it will have great 3 week total thanks to fandom, Chirstamas, New Year and last but not least Three Wise Man holiday on 6th (Monday). If WOM will be great it could challenge Frozen II as biggest 2019 release, otherwise only passing 2mln adm will be a goal.
• Frozen II has great run so far, and I'm pretty sure it will pass TLK (sad face), soft drop of course related to weather and Santa's Day (schools helped a lot) and 3rd wkd number is 2nd biggest ever 3rd wkd number (behind only the biggest movie of last 20 years).

 

[Bart Allen]

What website do people use to figure out the Polish Rise of Skywalker numbers? :3

[StarLord]

@Pypa94 Thanks for quoting/mentioning http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/ in this thread.