Weekend Thread (1/7-9) | The 355 - 350K Previews (5K short!)

[TwoMisfits]

So, I forgot to post this last night, but my boys (who never saw any other movie in the series - of course, they didn't for Matrix, either) would like everyone to know that The King's Man is better than The Matrix 4...and my spouse would like you to know that's not true - they both suck...and my daughter (who didn't see Matrix 4) would like you to know that you can ironically watch The King's Man for laughs in the "so bad, it's funny" category...

 

Youngest Boy - B+

Oldest Boy - A below Venom 2

(Now 18-25) Oldest Daughter (God, I'm getting old) - C-

Spouse (aka Dad) - D+/D, and he says I now him for the next bad movie my youngest picks...

 

I did hear the popcorn that I preordered was great...

 

And now you know - The King's Man was made for 8-12 year old boys who never saw any other movies in the series...

Edited January 9, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[wildphantom]

7 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

I don't think Elgort would significantly hurt the BO prospects of a random movie but an adaptation of an NY set interracial romance Broadway musical whose target demo are left-leaning crowds, especially progressive women? I think he definitely put them off from at least making it a pandemic must see like Gucci. It's also the reason why I think you are very right that Harry would have taken it to blockbuster status as his fanbase would have been interested in the film if HE were in it.

sure, but it wouldn’t have been as good. Elgort is phenomenal in the film and no studio tells Steven Spielberg who to cast in his films. If anything he tells them. 

[Krissykins]

Gucci passed $50m. 
 

The King’s Man headed for $100m worldwide with $74m after a $13.4m international weekend, not a complete waste of time I guess. Maybe it’ll do well on streaming. 

[wildphantom]

I saw Licorice Pizza this afternoon in the U.K.  Played like gangbusters. Brilliant film. Should do well over here. 

Edited January 9, 2022 by wildphantom

[fabiopazzo2]

 

[Cmasterclay]

Not trying to spin here for optimism sake, but that's legit like at least two mill more than I expected for 355 lol

[Valonqar]

NWH exceeded weekend expectations but what if it's underestimated again? 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

8 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

I don't think Elgort would significantly hurt the BO prospects of a random movie but an adaptation of an NY set interracial romance Broadway musical whose target demo are left-leaning crowds, especially progressive women? I think he definitely put them off from at least making it a pandemic must see like Gucci. It's also the reason why I think you are very right that Harry would have taken it to blockbuster status as his fanbase would have been interested in the film if HE were in it.

The anti-Ansel people were very noisy on social media how much box office would that have generated? It just feels like a Very Online thing, where it's a few voices making a lot of noise and many of the posters were never going to see the movie anyway. See how Licorice Pizza had a huge Discourse in online film circles for weeks, when it was just playing in four New York/LA theaters. But even supposing the people boycotting because of Ansel all live in New York/LA and their average ticket would have been $20 each, if it's 250,000 who boycotted West Side Story because of Ansel, that's $5 million more for the total over its lifetime, which still doesn't make it a hit. Maybe everyone who would have seen it except for Ansel would have loved it and told a friend who told a friend, and there would have been a snowball effect... Or, West Side Story is underwhelming at the box office like most of this year's Oscar hopefuls, even in places like Europe, where the "Ansel boycott" is definitely not a thing.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

That's actually probably why Disney decided to make Turning Red a D+ exclusive tbh (being a comedy that was gonna be sold primarily to the still-yet-to-return-in-full-force crowd of young girls without the action orientation of Raya or the musical/LMM association of Encanto that was always gonna make those titles more appealing to a broader audience than the "10 and under" demographic that was definitely going to be the main targets for Red and Luca). Also why Lightyear and most likely Disney Animation's Strange World around Thanksgiving (not much is known about it at the moment but from what's out there it's also gonna be of the action/adventure variety) are likely safe from streaming releases since small children and their parents aren't the only demos those movies will be going after.

Turning Red is also set in Canada, maybe there are concerns about what the theater situation will be in March. It's just unfortunate since there have been signs of life theatrically for animation, and I think the Omicron itself will burn out long before the second weekend of March.

[Tokugennumataka]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

NWH exceeded weekend expectations but what if it's underestimated again? 

I feel Sony overestimated this time around. Empire said 14.6M for Sat. For 33M, it'll require 10.1M Sun. Barely a 30% drop doesn't seem likely. 

[Spidey Freak]

14 hours ago, wildphantom said:

sure, but it wouldn’t have been as good. Elgort is phenomenal in the film and no studio tells Steven Spielberg who to cast in his films. If anything he tells them. 

 

This is literally the first time I've heard anyone say anything remotely positive about him in the film. As for Spielberg, I don't think he would've really cared about sticking to Elgort if this controversy came up during the casting process and the studio asked him to change his pick.

[john2000]

 

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

 

 

Assuming this number holds with actuals, NWH would pass IW on the 13th (latest 14th) and BP on the 16th (latest 17th). After MLK Day, TFA added an additional $77.7M to its DOM total. Assuming NWH is at $702-705M through MLK Day, it will need to hold at least 71% and up to 76% of TFA the rest of the way to pass Avatar. 

 

Edited January 9, 2022 by RiddlerXXR

[efialtes76]

Sunday estimates seen very optimistic.

Edited January 9, 2022 by efialtes76

[Spidey Freak]

13 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

The anti-Ansel people were very noisy on social media how much box office would that have generated? It just feels like a Very Online thing, where it's a few voices making a lot of noise and many of the posters were never going to see the movie anyway. See how Licorice Pizza had a huge Discourse in online film circles for weeks, when it was just playing in four New York/LA theaters. But even supposing the people boycotting because of Ansel all live in New York/LA and their average ticket would have been $20 each, if it's 250,000 who boycotted West Side Story because of Ansel, that's $5 million more for the total over its lifetime, which still doesn't make it a hit. 

 

I mean, I'm sure the producers would really want to recover another 5M at this point. I agree that just swapping Elgort for any other actor wouldn't have made the film a success though so it had to be someone like a Styles to do the trick.

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

I feel Sony overestimated this time around. Empire said 14.6M for Sat. For 33M, it'll require 10.1M Sun. Barely a 30% drop doesn't seem likely. 

 

I see. Thanks.

 

3 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Assuming NWH is at $702-705M through MLK Day, it will need to hold at least 71% and up to 76% of TFA the rest of the way to pass Avatar. 

 

 

it has a dead month ahead. Scream will open well but won't steal too much audience from Spidey and then there's nothing to challenge either til Moonfall (Feb 4). Avatar goes down, IMO.

[Torontofan]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

 

 

Looks like 1 billion overseas is happening 

[Valonqar]

I honestly don't think that Harry Styles would turn WSS into a hit. The concept simply isn't appealing (at least to justify ridiculous 100M pricetag). Also, considering that Dunkirk was a hit thanks to underserved older crowd, that hasn't gotten a WW2 epic in years, doubtful Styles could be credited for its boxoffice.  Like, when you compare twitter trending for his Eternals cameo leak and Eternals boxoffice (way lower than SC dom, slightly higher OS), his fans didn't exactly flock to that movie to assure sequel or spin-off. 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Valonqar

[Tokugennumataka]

11 minutes ago, john2000 said:

 

Wait, am I reading it right? Did it just drop 33% in overseas markets excluding Japan? Wtf!? 

[Valonqar]

Just now, Tokugennumataka said:

Wait, am I reading it right? Did it just drop 33% in overseas markets excluding Japan? Wtf!? 

 

possibly even less cause OS estimates usually come lower than actuals. 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Wait, am I reading it right? Did it just drop 33% in overseas markets excluding Japan? Wtf!? 

 

Just now, Valonqar said:

 

possibly even less cause OS estimates usually come lower than actuals. 

 

The Philippines opened also, so it's going to be more like 35-40% drop from the same markets.