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2021 Screen Actors Guild Awards Thread

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That Gucci love...star power is helluva drug!   The fact that its also the only adult drama this year that wasn't a bomb probably helped.  Haven't seen Gucci yet, but I suspect its noms aren't nearly as offensive as DLU's.

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10 hours ago, grim22 said:

By snubbing the Belfast supporting actors, SAG single handedly increased the star power for the awards. Affleck, Leto and Cooper getting in thanks to that.

 

Kristen Stewart missing is the big one for sure, that kind of stops her momentum fully. Felt like no one was strongly onboard with that performance as I mentioned previously.

Affleck and JLo will be up front and the camera will pan to them for reactions throughout the night. Leto would only miss the SAG ceremony if it's canceled...or he is.

 

Cooper barely promoted the movie he starred in this season, let alone Licorice Pizza, and the SAGs aren't exactly the Oscars.

 

I knew it was true about Spencer not going over well in the industry when Neon had Pablo Larrain send out a message emphasizing that the movie was a fable and to give it a chance, pretty please... Kristen really is looking like Carey Mulligan v2.0 at the moment, with a much weaker movie.

 

 

10 hours ago, filmlover said:

These are so crazy. Jennifer Hudson's chances for a nomination are still alive! Also, between his nomination for The Little Things last year and now House of Gucci this year it's safe to say Leto has plenty of clout in the industry no matter much the Internet makes fun of him lol.

 

Also Don't Look Up getting in just for having so many stars in it lmao.

 

At this point I wouldn't rule out Olivia Colman winning BAFTA (if nominated) and ultimately winning the Oscar again. As Christoph Waltz and Mahershala Ali have recently proved, being a recent winner doesn't exempt you from picking up another trophy so soon.

Respect made about as much as Judy domestically ($24.2m vs $24.3m) and that's with a pandemic severely holding back dramas for grown-ups. If Respect had come out in 2019, it makes $75-100 million and Hudson hits all the precursors. Maybe she could still get in at Oscar.

 

 

10 hours ago, stripe said:

CRAZY!
No Stewart. No Aujane Ellis. Both were perceived as locks!

Weird to see Bardem as Best Leading Actor over DiCaprio in a Best Ensemble nommed film, over Dinklage or over Nicolas Cage.
Weird to see House of Gucci's love.

Some pundits had reported that Gaga and Leto went over really well at a SAG screening for House of Gucci. Plus, SAG skews ppopulist (they have news anchors and influencers voting), it makes sense that the one adult drama viewed as a box office hit did well here.


Don't Look Up also benefits from being "important" while huge on Netflix. SAG often goes to the largest, most starry cast, I think it's between it and Gucci for the win.

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The fact the only person among Don't Look Up's actors (Blanchett) to receive individual recognition did so for another movie that didn't make Ensemble seems to indicate that the passion isn't there enough for the movie to score any acting noms. Meanwhile, BCoop getting in for a limited role in Licorice Pizza probably indicates he was right outside of Best Actor for Nightmare Alley.

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I don't think Cooper was close for Nightmare Alley. That film is a complete flop. His performance in Licorice Pizza is much more crowdpleasing and the film is a top-tier contender. He made the AACTA awards which are strong industry indicators and hit the BAFTA longlist while Nightmare Alley was basically shut-out. Blanchett's nom was probably a namecheck and she plays a villain in it. A lot of the "snubs" today are actors not very famous or previously nominated/respected... Stewart, Ellis, Dornan... If Bardem happened, surely Ricardos was in legit mix for Ensemble. Leo probably got tons of votes too but his miss is very concerning. Don't Look Up is not a very strong contender overall, I'm still unsure it makes DGA

 

I still think CODA can win this. 

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5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't think Cooper was close for Nightmare Alley. That film is a complete flop. His performance in Licorice Pizza is much more crowdpleasing and the film is a top-tier contender. He made the AACTA awards which are strong industry indicators and hit the BAFTA longlist while Nightmare Alley was basically shut-out. Blanchett's nom was probably a namecheck and she plays a villain in it. A lot of the "snubs" today are actors not very famous or previously nominated/respected... Stewart, Ellis, Dornan... If Bardem happened, surely Ricardos was in legit mix for Ensemble. Leo probably got tons of votes too but his miss is very concerning. Don't Look Up is not a very strong contender overall, I'm still unsure it makes DGA

 

I still think CODA can win this. 

To be fair, Dornan and Ellis still did get nominations as part of Ensemble for their respective movies. It was Stewart who was clearly the big snub out of everyone (guess that's what happens when you're assumed to be the frontrunner all season long even though it's been obvious her movie was weak otherwise for a while).

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Stewart is falling faster than Carey Mulligan last year in just two days after losing both GG and snub even for nomination, proving resistance among voters against once badly perceived actress. Similar thing happened to adam sandler, no matter how great his performance in Uncut gems, they just decided to ignore him because his brand as a actor 

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On 1/13/2022 at 12:01 PM, titanic2187 said:

Stewart is falling faster than Carey Mulligan last year in just two days after losing both GG and snub even for nomination, proving resistance among voters against once badly perceived actress. Similar thing happened to adam sandler, no matter how great his performance in Uncut gems, they just decided to ignore him because his brand as a actor 

And another Kirsten is racking up the nominations for best supporting actress.

Between Dunst and Garfield, veterens of the Spidey Franchise seem to doing quite wwel lfor themselves.

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These are given out Sunday.

 

My predictions 

 

ENSEMBLE: Coda

(alt: Don’t Look Up)

While Don’t Look Up can win by default of being biggest, most widely seen, it’s more divisive than the typical winner. The lack of solo acting noms is also concerning. Both Big Short and Vice went home from SAG with nothing. Gut feeling is that the more crowdpleasing and diverse CODA wins

 

ACTOR: Will Smith

This seems like a given. Slight chance for Garfield upset but Will has the buzz, the film, and the career

 

ACTRESS: Nicole Kidman

(alt: Lady Gaga)

Probably the toughest call of the night. Should be between these two. Chastain is a dark horse but has a weaker, less visible film. Gaga was Oscar snubbed but SAG loved the film and they might want to honor a huge star giving such a flashy performance. On the other hand, actors also liked Ricardos and Kidman is SAG royalty in a biopic role about famous TV icon.

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kodi Smit-McPhee

(alt: Troy Kotsur)

I was very close to predicting Kotsur. He has a likable character and a rooting factor with the deaf narrative. But Kodi has dominated the awards conversation so far and is essentially co-lead in the BP front runner playing off Cumberbatch. If he and the film are actually strong, he should win this while Coda gets honored for the ensemble.

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ariana DeBose

DeBose losing would be a shock. I don’t think any of these nominees have a chance. 
 

This leaves Belfast empty-handed but meh. It has not dominated many awards ceremonies so far (shut-out at London Film Critics and British Indie Film Critics. Won only Screenplay at Globes and Supporting Actress at AACTA, and Supporting Actor at NBR). Balfe was snubbed at Oscars and Hinds missed here. Feels too minor (and white, frankly, after recent winners like Parasite, Black Panther, Hidden Figures) for an Ensemble winner. Chicago 7 and Billboards are not even comparisons because both were legit acting showcases from bigger stars. Go back to Spotlight but that was another film with bigger stars acclaimed for its ensemble acting. 

Edited by BestPicturePlutoNash
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CODA was definitely the big winner here and Kotsur seems to be the frontrunner now in his category. That seems like the easiest place for the movie to be recognized and Kodi is still a relatively fresh face in the industry (the fact he's not the only actor from his movie to be recognized in that category might result in split votes and cancelling each other out).

 

At this point I think Chastain is winning the Oscar after tonight tbh. I didn't like The Eyes of Tammy Faye and wasn't even that crazy about her performance in it (more a fault of the script than hers, she's still very good in it), but it's a weak enough year that a previous double nominee who is also as respected and in-demand as any actor is in 2022 with a baity biopic role can easily emerge as the winner, especially when she's up against previous winners minus Stewart (who is likely last given that she's her movie's only nomination). "Academy Award Winner Jessica Chastain" has a nice ring to it too.

 

Smith and DeBose have pretty much solidified their undeniable frontrunner statuses.

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CODA wining best ensemble just got TPOD closer to best picture win since they are not favouring it’s closer rival Belfast. 
 

best actress race is getting wilder now and best supporting actor seem changing course. Smith and Debose pretty much locked unless we are boseman all over again

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Yeah, I think Power of the Dog is lucking out. Not only is Belfast missing Editing, but it's lost SAG and has an extremely narrow path. Won't win ACE + DGA + ASC. Not nominated at ADG or CDG. That leaves BAFTA but Globe losers don't win BAFTA usually and that could just be a British win. Hard to predict it for PGA if it's won nothing... Green Book is the comparison but that won Globe and had an acting frontrunner. CODA seems to be the bigger crowdpleaser, but that lacks Director and Editing (and no BAFTA). King Richard lacks DGA and BAFTA Film. 

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It seems kinda astounding to me that The Power of the Dog is considered easily the frontrunner and yet it's not looking likely any of its actors will win. Sorta reinforces the notion that it's not that strong of a frontrunner and that this year is lacking one movie that everyone can really rally behind ala Parasite.

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On 2/28/2022 at 12:24 AM, filmlover said:

It seems kinda astounding to me that The Power of the Dog is considered easily the frontrunner and yet it's not looking likely any of its actors will win. Sorta reinforces the notion that it's not that strong of a frontrunner and that this year is lacking one movie that everyone can really rally behind ala Parasite.

The only alternative is CODA... which would be an unprecedented upset considering it has no BAFTA nom, no Directing/DGA nom, no Editing nom. Meaning it's somewhat divisive 

 

Unless you think somehow Belfast can win BAFTA > PGA on the way to BP which I don't

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