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Noctis

THE SECRETS OF DUMBLEDORE: $309.3m

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What do you guys expect from this?

 

I think if reviews are just okay enough with decent WOM, I can see it hitting $300m OS. My current prediction is $315m OS.

Edited by Noctis
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29 minutes ago, jma22 said:

DOM: $130m

OS-C: $340m

CHINA: $30m

My prediction is $500m worldwide what means -150m from Crimes of Grindelwald

 

Seems about right, though I am curious if the "Dumbledore" name in the title will carry it a bit further. 

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1 hour ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Seems about right, though I am curious if the "Dumbledore" name in the title will carry it a bit further. 

It's tricky to tell, titles alone aren't enough to draw people away or to a movie. I mean Dumbledore and Hogwarts were featured prominently in the trailers for Crimes of Grindelwald and it made about 200 mil less than the first movie.

 

The title for this third movie is rather clunky in my opinion and doesn't roll of the tongue as well as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them does/did. For a fair amount of people it also kinda accentuates the whole "why is it even still called Fantastic Beasts anymore when they making it about Dumbledore and Grindelwald?" crowd

 

The other issue is that Dumbledore isn't necessarily the main character of this one. He barely did anything in the 2nd movie but at least it seems in this one he'll have more to do, but still you got a bunch of other characters running around taking up screentime which makes this more of an ensemble piece than it being purely Dumbledore's show.

Edited by clockwork
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What are you guys thinking?

 

I'm saying $315m like my original prediction because I just do not want to be disappointed. $300m will make me content. Anything above is gravy for me.

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4 minutes ago, Noctis said:

What are you guys thinking?

 

I'm saying $315m like my original prediction because I just do not want to be disappointed. $300m will make me content. Anything above is gravy for me.

 

I think promoting this heavily with the "Dumbledore" title is going to juice it in a way FB2 couldn't do. Not to mention ticket prices are like 16-18% higher since then. 

 

At least $400M OS and it wouldn't surprise me if it's over $450M. 

Edited by KnucklesXXR
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Just now, KnucklesXXR said:

 

I think promoting this heavily with the "Dumbledore" title is going to juice it over FB2. Not to mention ticket prices are like 16-18% higher since then. 

 

At least $400M OS and it wouldn't surprise me if it's over $450M. 

 

I'd be ecstatic for $400m, but I just do not see that happening. I hope I'm proven wrong.

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I'm pretty sure it'll need to get a little over 400 to break even, cause I imagine the budget is like between 160 to 200 million. But I think it will be able to do between 350 to 500 million if it's a solid improvement over the 2nd film, which seems to be the case.

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With the name “Dumbledore” in the title I think it will be attractive,Dumbledore probably one of the most popular Harry Potter character

Edited by Bruce
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The film exceeds $500 million worldwide, if it does, the sequel is guaranteed. It remains to be seen whether cinemas in China will start to open again by April 7..

The film if it is in the same budget as Dune ($165M), the latter has collected $410M worldwide in total and will have its sequel, I think a result in the 500 will be decent.

Edited by Jak Ryan Drake Campbell
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Posted (edited)

It releases next week in:

 

China

Germany

UK

Australia

New Zealand

Austria

Japan

Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

 

Can someone show how much FB1 and Crimes opened to in those countries? 

Edited by Noctis
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Japan Box Office

 

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (2016) - 2016/11/23 - ¥7.34B

Spoiler

OD : ¥460,000,000 /x328,770 attendees

3D : ¥x901,467,500 /x644,312 attendees (OD+2D)

OP : ¥x822,862,100 /x546,138 attendees

OW: ¥1,724,329,600 /1,190,450 attendees (5D)

AF : ¥7,340,000,000

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (2018) - 2018/11/23 - ¥6.57B

Spoiler

OD : ¥x617,926,800 /x430,005 attendees

OP : ¥x854,007,700 /x570,788 attendees

OW: ¥1,471,934,500 /1,000,793 attendees (3D)

AF : ¥6,570,000,000

 

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Apparently bad weather in Europe affected the box office of movies earlier this week. Is that still a factor? That combined with Covid (even if restrictions are being lifted) would hamper overall gross.

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3 hours ago, kyrixos said:

Apparently bad weather in Europe affected the box office of movies earlier this week. Is that still a factor? That combined with Covid (even if restrictions are being lifted) would hamper overall gross.


everything is fine in europe, and the potentiel bad weather can be beneficial, rain with children = indoor outings and therefore cinema.

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On 4/2/2022 at 4:59 PM, Noctis said:

It releases next week in:

 

China

Germany

UK

Australia

New Zealand

Austria

Japan

Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

 

Can someone show how much FB1 and Crimes opened to in those countries? 

I'd like to see more data on this if possible too.

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      Market             FB                  COG 
China                 $40.455.021   $36.681.320     -9%
UK                      $18.929.810   $15.809.761  -16%
Germany              $9.115.631   $11.932.800    31%
Japan                   $7.267.816     $7.560.266      4%
Australia              $7.157.510     $6.286.502   -12%
Spain                   $4.404.192     $4.614.419      5%
Netherlands        $2.083.100     $2.835.284    36%
Poland                   $908.476     $1.400.067     54%
New Zealand     $ 1.058.980        $961.770     -9%
Portugal                $643.245        $692.221      8%
Iceland                  $110.115       $111.668      1%
Czech Republic  $1.198.443     $1.272.161      6%
Norway              $1.054.033     $1.041.783     -1%
Finland                 $626.065   
Belgium   
Austria   
Denmark   
India   
Sweden   
Switzerland   
  Total             $95.012.437   $91.200.022   -4%
  OS-CH          $54.557.416   $54.518.702    0%

 

Deadline's article adjusted the totals for inflation for some reason (FB1: 120M, CoG: 115M). So something close to 50M (without China) this weekend would be good, I guess.

Edited by Felipe
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On 4/5/2022 at 9:07 PM, kyrixos said:

Apparently bad weather in Europe affected the box office of movies earlier this week. Is that still a factor? That combined with Covid (even if restrictions are being lifted) would hamper overall gross.

 

"Bad weather in Europe" doesn't mean much because we are talking about a Continent, and without the modern media for example the whole of UK and Ireland could sink into the ocean without anyone here in Italy noticing 😅

Edited by MG10
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It will be very interesting to follow for this film, the starts should be not too bad, except in China where 60% of cinemas are closed. What will be interesting will be his legs, which this time and I believe, should be stronger than CoG.

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Seems like $55-60M OW.

Market FB:CoG FB:SoD  
China 37,528,697 9,500,000 -74.69%
UK 15,809,761 9,000,000 -43.07%
Germany 13,191,847 9,250,000 -29.88%
Japan 13,030,582 9,000,000 -30.93%
Australia 6,917,413    
Spain 4,614,419    
Netherlands 3,466,758    
Poland 1,428,501    
New Zealand 1,081,576    
Portugal 753,273    
Iceland 111,668    
Czech Republic 1,423,712    
Norway 1,625,281 600,000 -63.08%
Finland 830,000    
Belgium 1,000,000    
Austria 1,500,000    
Denmark 1,750,000    
India 2,200,000 1,250,000 -43.18%
Sweden 2,000,000    
Switzerland 1,800,000    
Total 112,063,488 38,600,000 -65.56%
OS-CH 74,534,791 29,100,000 -60.96%

 

 

$280-300M INT may be.

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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