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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (1/21-23) | Asgard 2 says 3.5 Fri for Scream, 3.4 Spider-Man

By Eric Atreides, in Numbers and Data

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Tokugennumataka Sleeper Hit

Tokugennumataka

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Are you sure about this HUGE bump for NWH on Sat ?

Not that huge. 

TFA - 93%

TLJ - 95%

TROS - 103%

TH:UJ - 103%

Aquaman - 100%

Tron - 97%

 

All of them saw better jumps. Besides, the Sat jump will be certainly higher than last Sat's 68% as Sunday will be a normal Sunday this week day. 

 

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted (edited)

Post MLK Sat recent laterun genre comps (I'm noting whether it was a conference championship wknd -- that deflates Sun and arguably shifts a little sun business to Sat, though I personally doubt it has much affect):

TFA +93 (champs)

RO +103 (champs)

TLJ +95 (champs)

JWTTJ +95 (champs)

AQM +100 (no champs)

Bumblebee +115 (no champs)

Spiderverse +118 (no champs)

TROS +103 (no champs)

JTNL +117 (no champs)

 

Serious kid stuff bounces around 200, fairly adult skewing still sees a bounce like 70-90. Should be 90-100ish for NWH, the a drop in the 30s since no champs, this taking out TFA's 6th weekend.

 

Edited by Product Driven Legion
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Yeah, I feel +100% is possible at this point. But as the Friday jump was enormous, I went a bit conservative. 

Intuitively I expect a larger Fri Jump actually correlates with a larger Sat jump -- but there are dynamics in both directions so it would be interesting to run an actual analysis and see how it netted out.

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KP1025 Box Office Gold

KP1025

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Bet a month of gold on 775+ 🤙

Edit: I'll give you the clean 3x actually

 

I have $781 million down for your contest. 😅 Is there anyone else participating in the range of the projected finish? I noticed one entry for $777 million was after the deadline so don't know if you counted it.

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wildphantom Box Office Gold

wildphantom

Posted
Posted

I’ve subtracted China out of the top 6 all-time worldwide. I think it gives us an even better perspective of where NWH really is. 
 

Avatar - $2.586 billion

Avengers Endgame - $2.168 billion

Titanic - $2.056 billion 

Force Awakens - $1.945 billion 

Infinity War - $1.689 billion 

Spider-Man: NWH - $1.633 billion*

Jurassic World - $1.442 billion

 

Finishing in 5th, behind Avatar, Endgame, Titanic and TFA feels about right. Rather than the 6th the ultimate chart is going to show. 

 

*as of 20th Jan 2022

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Am I right in saying nothing opens next weekend? At all? 
 

Then Canada reopens on Monday 31st. 

You are correct. Nobody took advantage of Morbius being delayed.

Edited by filmlover
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted (edited)

Redeeming Love going to romp the derby max. NWH also beating its derby max but by a far more modest %. Let’s see if other movies can do so as well — 355 and KM would not surprise me.

Edited by Product Driven Legion
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