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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (1/21-23) | Asgard 2 says 3.5 Fri for Scream, 3.4 Spider-Man

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12 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I don’t really have a pulse on DC movies as much, so it’s not as confident a number in the first place as I had for e.g. NWH, SC etc. Mostly I feel like there is some character/brand damage from the last two movies Batman starred in and despite the new iteration seeming to excite people a lot that will still have some role. As a historical comp Batman Begins has felt very natural from the beginning to me, so my high expectations have always been more for legs and Batman 2.

 

Buuuuutttt....

 

If you comp Batmen Begins vs the opening weekend record at the time and apply that to The Batman, you get $151.5M....

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17 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I don’t really have a pulse on DC movies as much, so it’s not as confident a number in the first place as I had for e.g. NWH, SC etc. Mostly I feel like there is some character/brand damage from the last two movies Batman starred in and despite the new iteration seeming to excite people a lot that will still have some role. As a historical comp Batman Begins has felt very natural from the beginning to me, so my high expectations have always been more for legs and Batman 2.

 

Fair enuf.

 

Ironically, I think because this has nothing to do with the last two movies the character of Batman was in, then the popularity of the brand itself can take center stage.  As mentioned in previous threads, my range was in the 135-160 ish range*.  Probably should bump up the range a bit, but my inherent caution is holding me back from going too high.  Probs in the 140-165 range right now.

 

* Yes, I know I IN'd grim's club.  Shaddup. :P

 

Dunno.  Just feels like a wave is building, ya' know?  If things start to go south/new variant emerges/everything that can go wrong does go wrong, 130-ish wouldn't surprise me.  But much lower than that?

 

Well, Joker did 96m+ and that was an R-rated non-action film that had a fair amount of controversy/backlash in the domestic market at release, while this is a PG-13  film with literally zero controversy.  Now this is longer, sure, but we have ticket inflation coming in again.  Just seems to me that 120m is kinda the floor, if only coz of all of the flippin' hype.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Buuuuutttt....

 

If you comp Batmen Begins vs the opening weekend record at the time and apply that to The Batman, you get $151.5M....

Think About It Reaction GIF by Identity

Translate BB's OW rank. If it's over 120 I guess my principles will force me to adjust up since I believe covid will be over by them 😛

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Just now, Product Driven Legion said:

Translate BB's OW rank. If it's over 120 I guess my principles will force me to adjust up since I believe covid will be over by them 😛

 

Where do you find that? I'm sure it's simple but I've never looked. 

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13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ironically, I think because this has nothing to do with the last two movies the character of Batman was in, then the popularity of the brand itself can take center stage

I mean, that's why I'm not sub 100 :p. 

 

Begins also benefitted hugely from being a new iteration after the bad taste of the previous -- but that does mean you're a first entry in many respects, which always have a harder time OW than sequels.

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4 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Why not? The runtime probably will hurt a little, it wasn't obviously gonna crush 100 even with a normal one.   

 

I'm still on like 120 I guess but this is hardly the deadline low-ball special "the industry will be happy with [40% of the realistic OW]."

Long runtime gonna impact something like EG I guess which did 350 near capacity. 100 isn't big number.

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6 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Translate BB's OW rank. If it's over 120 I guess my principles will force me to adjust up since I believe covid will be over by them 😛

 

Quote

OPENING WEEKENDS

$40+ M - $30-40 M - $25-30 M - $20-25 M
 
Rank Title (click to view) Studio Opening* % of Total Theaters Average Total Gross^ Date**
1 Spider-Man Sony $114,844,116 28.4% 3,615 $31,768 $403,706,375 5/03/2002
2 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $108,435,841 31.2% 3,661 $29,619 $347,802,000 5/19/2005
3 Shrek 2 DW $108,037,878 24.5% 4,163 $25,951 $441,226,247 5/19/2004
4 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $93,687,367 37.5% 3,855 $24,302 $249,541,069 6/04/2004
5 The Matrix Reloaded WB $91,774,413 32.6% 3,603 $25,471 $281,576,461 5/15/2003
6 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $90,294,621 28.4% 3,672 $24,590 $317,575,550 11/16/2001
7 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets WB $88,357,488 33.7% 3,682 $23,997 $261,988,482 11/15/2002
8 Spider-Man 2 Sony $88,156,227 23.6% 4,152 $21,232 $373,585,825 6/30/2004
9 X2: X-Men United Fox $85,558,731 39.8% 3,741 $22,870 $214,949,694 5/02/2003
10 The Passion of the Christ NM $83,848,082 22.6% 3,043 $27,554 $370,274,604 2/25/2004
11 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones Fox $80,027,814 26.5% 3,161 $25,317 $302,191,252 5/16/2002
12 Austin Powers in Goldmember NL $73,071,188 34.3% 3,613 $20,224 $213,307,889 7/26/2002
13 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $72,629,713 19.3% 3,703 $19,613 $377,027,325 12/17/2003
14 The Lost World: Jurassic Park Uni. $72,132,785 31.5% 3,281 $21,985 $229,086,679 5/23/1997
15 The Incredibles BV $70,467,623 27.0% 3,933 $17,917 $261,441,092 11/05/2004
16 Finding Nemo BV $70,251,710 20.7% 3,374 $20,821 $339,714,978 5/30/2003
17 The Day After Tomorrow Fox $68,743,584 36.8% 3,425 $20,071 $186,740,799 5/28/2004
18 Planet of the Apes Fox $68,532,960 38.1% 3,500 $19,580 $180,011,740 7/27/2001
19 The Mummy Returns Uni. $68,139,035 33.7% 3,401 $20,035 $202,019,785 5/04/2001
20 Bruce Almighty Uni. $67,953,330 28.0% 3,483 $19,510 $242,829,261 5/23/2003
21 Rush Hour 2 NL $67,408,222 29.8% 3,118 $21,619 $226,164,286 8/03/2001
22 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $64,820,970 15.0% 2,970 $21,825 $431,088,301 5/19/1999
23 Monsters, Inc. BV $62,577,067 24.5% 3,237 $19,331 $255,873,250 11/02/2001
24 Hulk Uni. $62,128,420 47.0% 3,660 $16,974 $132,177,234 6/20/2003
25 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $62,007,528 18.2% 3,622 $17,119 $339,789,881 12/18/2002
26 Signs BV $60,117,080 26.4% 3,264 $18,418 $227,966,634 8/02/2002
27 Pearl Harbor BV $59,078,912 29.8% 3,214 $18,381 $198,542,554 5/25/2001
28 Hannibal MGM $58,003,121 35.1% 3,230 $17,957 $165,092,268 2/09/2001
29 Mission: Impossible II Par. $57,845,297 26.9% 3,653 $15,835 $215,409,889 5/24/2000
30 Toy Story 2 BV $57,388,839 23.3% 3,236 $17,734 $245,852,179 11/24/1999
31 How the Grinch Stole Christmas Uni. $55,082,330 21.2% 3,127 $17,615 $260,044,825 11/17/2000
32 Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me NL $54,917,604 26.7% 3,312 $16,581 $206,040,086 6/11/1999
33 X-Men Fox $54,471,475 34.6% 3,025 $18,007 $157,299,717 7/14/2000
34 Scooby-Doo WB $54,155,312 35.3% 3,447 $15,710 $153,294,164 6/14/2002
35 Batman Forever WB $52,784,433 28.7% 2,842 $18,572 $184,031,112 6/16/1995
36 The Bourne Supremacy Uni. $52,521,865 29.8% 3,165 $16,594 $176,241,941 7/23/2004
37 I, Robot Fox $52,179,887 36.0% 3,420 $15,257 $144,801,023 7/16/2004
38 Men in Black II Sony $52,148,751 27.4% 3,557 $14,660 $190,418,803 7/03/2002
39 Van Helsing Uni. $51,748,040 43.1% 3,575 $14,474 $120,177,084 5/07/2004
40 8 Mile Uni. $51,240,555 43.9% 2,470 $20,745 $116,750,901 11/08/2002
41 Men in Black Sony $51,068,455 20.4% 3,020 $16,910 $250,690,539 7/02/1997
42 Jurassic Park III Uni. $50,771,645 28.0% 3,434 $14,784 $181,171,875 7/18/2001
43 The Village BV $50,746,142 44.4% 3,730 $13,604 $114,197,520 7/30/2004
44 2 Fast 2 Furious Uni. $50,472,480 39.7% 3,408 $14,810 $127,154,901 6/06/2003
45 Mr. and Mrs. Smith Fox $50,342,878 51.4% 3,424 $14,702 $97,961,000 6/10/2005
46 Independence Day Fox $50,228,264 16.4% 2,882 $17,428 $306,169,268 7/03/1996
47 The Matrix Revolutions WB $48,475,154 34.8% 3,502 $13,842 $139,313,948 11/05/2003
48 Scary Movie 3 Dim. $48,113,770 43.7% 3,505 $13,727 $110,003,217 10/24/2003
49 Lara Croft: Tomb Raider Par. $47,735,743 36.4% 3,308 $14,430 $131,168,070 6/15/2001
50 The Longest Yard Par. $47,606,480 36.1% 3,634 $13,100 $131,905,000 5/27/2005
51 Shark Tale DW $47,604,606 29.6% 4,016 $11,853 $160,861,908 10/01/2004
52 Madagascar DW $47,224,594 32.1% 4,131 $11,431 $147,195,000 5/27/2005
53 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring NL $47,211,490 15.1% 3,359 $14,055 $313,364,114 12/19/2001
54 Die Another Day MGM $47,072,040 29.2% 3,314 $14,203 $160,942,139 11/22/2002
55 Jurassic Park Uni. $47,026,828 13.2% 2,404 $19,561 $357,067,947 6/11/1993
56 Batman Begins WB $46,935,000 66.0% 3,858 $12,165 $71,087,000 6/15/2005

 

#56 at time of release.

 

Current #:

 

Quote
55 The Jungle Book $103,261,464 $364,001,123 28.4% 4,028 $25,635 Apr 15, 2016 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
56 Wonder Woman $103,251,471 $412,563,408 25% 4,165 $24,790 Jun 2, 2017 Warner Bros.
57 X-Men: The Last Stand $102,750,665 $234,362,462 43.8% 3,690 $27,845 May 26, 2006 Twentieth Century Fox
58 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $102,685,961 $290,013,036 35.4% 3,858 $26,616 Nov 18, 2005 Warner Bros.
59 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $102,665,981 $281,723,902 36.4% 4,175 $24,590 Nov 20, 2015 Lionsgate

 

You're safe, @Product Driven Legion 👍

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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Long runtime gonna impact something like EG I guess which did 350 near capacity. 100 isn't big number.

 

53 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

There’s definitely no screen capacity issue, but there are people who would be able to fit a 2.5 hr excursions into their life that weekend but not a 3.5 hour one — or people who just don’t like the bladder implications.    
 

Nobody who’s extremely hyped will be turned about, but an important part of any OW is the not-extremely-hyped people. I think a couple % hit there is not outlandish.

Benn there answered that 😛

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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

#56 at time of release.

 

Current #:

 

 

You're safe, @Product Driven Legion 👍

 

2 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Alrighty so Batman Begins was the 47th biggest OW when it released. To hit that today, The Batman would need $116M. 

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20050713010155/http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/

 

This has it at 49th (with 2 openings on the list coming after). Idk why your numbers are different. 


EDIT: Yours isn't actuals. 

Edited by RiddlerXXR
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Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

How many young American have bladder issue? I mean 3:30 hours isn't a long time to not go for loo break.

The Indian perspective on long movies strikes again ;)   

 

Scheduling is more of a real thing than having to use restroom once imo.

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5 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

EDIT: Yours isn't actuals. 

 

Ah, I just picked a date after OW.  Wayback must have slid me to a prior date (I was multitasking at the time and didn't stop to verify).

 

FWIW, there were a ton of films in that range, so it's not too much of a surprise to see it leap a few placements thanks to actuals.

Edited by Porthos
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Damn you forgot how different OW's were 20 years ago and what could open huge vs today. Like Rush Hour 2 being the 4th biggest opening ever when it released, or 2001 having 4 of the 5 biggest all-time opening weekends in a 6 month span.

Edited by RiddlerXXR
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1 minute ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Damn you forgot how different OW's were 20 years ago and what could open huge vs today. Like Rush Hour 2 being the 4th biggest opening ever when it released, or 2001 having 4 of the 5 biggest all-time opening weekends in a 6 month span.

Looking at old OW ranks is a trip. Fun way to kill a half hour or two on a rainy day 

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*double checks*

 

THAT's what screwed me.

 

Hate to break this to you, Legion, but Batman Begins was a 5 day opener. :lol:   It was at 72.9m by the end of OW.

 

(I just went by date and picked a day five days after opening)

 

 

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