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94th Academy Awards Discussion Thread | WHAT JUST HAPPENED

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We're now less than 60 hours away from the moment we've all been waiting for. Who will be snubbed? Who (if anyone) will be the surprise nominees? Will No Way Home get nominated for Best Picture? All that (and more) will be answered at 8:18 a.m. ET/5:18 a.m. PT on Tuesday, February 8 when Tracee Ellis Ross and Leslie Jordan announce the nominees.

 

Post will be updated with all the nominees once they've come in. Feel free to post all your "no guts, no glory" final predictions here until then.

 

Nominees:

 

BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

 

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)

 

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

 

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
Dune (Jacqueline West)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

 

BEST SOUND
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA (Sian Heder)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
King Richard
The Worst Person in the World

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold

 

BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum)

 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard)
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast)
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days)

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune (Greig Fraser)
Nightmare Alley (Dan Lausten)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune (Zsuzsanna Sipos & Patrice Vermette)
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau)
The Power of the Dog (Grant Major & Amber Richards)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh)
West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen)

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Free Guy
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home

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My prediction in general

1. BP : the power of dog, dune, licorice Pizza, coda, west side story, belfast, don't look up, king richard, drive my car, and being the richardson

2. Kristen steward eventually left off from the race entirely in best actress

3. Hamaguchi replace either Spielberg or Branagh in best director race.

4. Dune missed Best adapted screenplay

5. Belle replace Luca for best animated feature. (the boldest prediction)   

6. The power of dog missing best editing nomination, foreshadow its decline in BP race, just like OUATIH. 

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1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm fully expecting something out of nowhere like Coda or Being the Ricardos to win Best Picture.

 

Whoever wins, I need Don't Look Up to lose. Adam McKay's immature Snyder fan-like behavior against those who didn't like the movie is the reason.

Nah, CODA and Ricardos won’t do it.

 

It’ll be Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, Power of the Dog, or West Side Story. They are the DGA nominees. Driving Miss Daisy (89) is last film to win Picture without it. In fact, it’s only the 2nd film ever to win without DGA. The first and only other was Hamlet (48) which was first ever DGA ceremony. Don’t Look Up missed, therefore it’s not the BP winner 

 

West Side Story has big time snubs like missing the Editing and cinematography guilds. It was snubbed for BAFTA Film (only Million Dollar Baby won BP without BAFTA Film nom but it probably missed for being a late American release) so cross it off the list.

 

That leaves Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, and Power of the Dog. Dune will not have acting support. Even BP winners that missed acting nominations like Parasite, Slumdog Millionaire, Return of the King were nominated or won SAG Ensemble. Ironically, they all also won Screenplay. The only comparison is Braveheart in 1995. No acting nominations nor SAG nomination. That was before Academy switched to preferential ballot and 1995 was a weird year: back BAFTA was held after the Oscars, Sense and Sensibility won Golden Globe while Apollo 13 won PGA and DGA. However, Ron Howard was snubbed for Director by Oscars. Nowadays, Apollo 13 probably wins the consensus voting as it had PGA and SAG. Braveheart won WGA which Dune unlikely will. It’s destined to be another Dunkirk, Hugo, Avatar. 
 

So, the Best Picture is statistically between Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Power of the Dog. The general sentiment seems to be Belfast vs Power of the Dog but both have flaws:

Belfast: Made Ensemble but underperformed at SAG by missing Supporting Actor. Missed BAFTA Cinematography. Was snubbed for the Costume and Art Direction guilds. Low critical reception for a BP winner (only Green Book is recently lower).


Power of the Dog: typical critic favorite that has lost in the past (Roma, Boyhood) or struggles to win the consensus ballot. Missed BAFTA Editing. Was snubbed for both Art Director and Costume guilds. 

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PICTURE: 9/10 of PGA with Drive My Car in over Ricardos. Ricardos missed all of BFCA, Globe, BAFTA, NBR, AFI, SAG Ensemble. No tech guilds. Don’t think WGA cuts it. 
 

DIRECTOR: Hamaguchi in over one of Spielberg or Branagh. Spielberg hasn’t missed Oscar nom after DGA since Amistad but the film underperformed despite being technically proficient. Branagh is a much more middlebrow, inconsistent Director the branch shouldn’t respond to but the film is stronger. 
 

ACTOR: Leo in over Bardem

 

ACTRESS: Stewart’s film is disliked greatly and she’s not a previous nominee. Andra Day made it last year as first timer with a polarizing film but she won the Globe. Hunch says Haim is swept up in the support of the film and her BAFTA nom. 5th spot is Penelope Cruz, who despite missing BAFTA log list is Hollywood royalty in a classy film. Chastain and Hudson suffer from weak American indies with little support despite showy biographical performances 

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kodi. Kotsur. Cooper. Hinds. Leto. Leto is vulnerable but the biggest spoiler is Jesse Plemmons and Power of the Dog should not be receiving 4 acting nominations. It’s not American Hustle or Silver Linings Playbook

 

SCREENPLAY: It’s never happened that BAFTA repeats 10/10 but West Side Story has missed a lot to confidently predict in Adapted while Original has too many variables. Worst Person in the World, Cmon Cmon and French Dispatch have more cons than pros.

 

EDITING: Power of the Dog can repeat its BAFTA snub but it’s likely that it’s in alongside Dune, Belfast, Licorice Pizza. 5th spot I’m going King Richard. While it missed BAFTA and BFCA, it still has ACE. Don’t Look Up was snubbed for Editing despite making Film. Summer of Soul is a spoiler but documentary hasn’t happened here since 1994

 

POSSIBLE SPOILERS:

Animated: Belle

Costume: French Dispatch

 

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Yeah, Being the Ricardos is definitely looking very vulnerable right now. Kinda wild how Actress is still wide open as to who the frontrunner is after Stewart didn't pan out for even a possible nomination, since Kidman missing BAFTA indicates that even if she is the frontrunner she's not a very strong one.

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I am betting on LP for the eventual BP win, the film has every sign needed to win at the moment. So far I am seeing the showdown between Belfast vs LP vs TPOD but LP could edge out both given that.

 

1. I have seen TPOD, the movie is a bit too boring and LP seem more accessible to general audience.

2. PTA is overdue. The academy love PTA and PTA is still oscarless. They must have been waiting for the moment to give PTA an Oscar which may propel him into win for best Original Screenplay, a key category before earning ticket to BP win.

3. Box office still matters. Box office run for LP has been great and the closest one we can get as it recall other Oscar-hopeful type run in pre-pandemic time. This can't be a factor working against LP.

4.  Focus Feature curse. They will never win BP. 

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Jared Leto just picked up a Razzie nomination for House of Gucci. Will he become the fourth actor to be nominated for both an Oscar and a Razzie for the same performance (and the second in as many years following Glenn Close at the previous ceremony)? We'll find out soon!

 

(Affleck was also just nominated at the Razzies for The Last Duel but it's The Tender Bar that he's been receiving the most attention for this year so he's pretty much safe there)

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On 2/6/2022 at 12:20 PM, titanic2187 said:

 

5. Belle replace Luca for best animated feature. (the boldest prediction)   

 

Belle will be nominated, but won't take Luca's place. The nominees will be: Belle, Encanto, Flee, Luca, Mitchells,

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Nomination count predictions:

 

11x:

Dune (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

9x:

The Power of the Dog (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score)

 

7x:

Licorice Pizza (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Production Design)

West Side Story (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound)

 

5x:

Belfast (Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing)

Don't Look Up (Picture, Original Screenplay, Editing, Song, Score)

King Richard (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Song)

 

4x:

Being the Ricardos (Picture, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay)

Drive My Car (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, International Feature)

House of Gucci (Actress, Supporting Actor, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling)

 

3x:

CODA (Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

Flee (International Feature, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature)

Nightmare Alley (Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design)

No Time to Die (Song, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

2x:

The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Actress, Makeup and Hairstyling)

The French Dispatch (Production Design, Score)

The Lost Daughter (Actress, Adapted Screenplay)

Spider-Man: No Way Home (Visual Effects, Sound)

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Actor, Cinematography)

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The nominations are being announced shortly. As for the awards ceremony itself, I have a hunch we're going to see a repeat of 2018. An out of nowhere, polarizing pick in the vein of Crash and Green Book. The Academy's been playing things kind of safe the past couple of years with obvious picks like Parasite, Nomadland and Phoenix for Joker. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like Being the Ricardos or Don't Look Up win the big award.

 

Also, Dune is not exactly a full story yet, so I imagine that might cause some issues as far as nomination chances are concerned.

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3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The nominations are being announced shortly. As for the awards ceremony itself, I have a hunch we're going to see a repeat of 2018. An out of nowhere, polarizing pick in the vein of Crash and Green Book. The Academy's been playing things kind of safe the past couple of years with obvious picks like Parasite, Nomadland and Phoenix for Joker. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like Being the Ricardos or Don't Look Up win the big award.

Why? They have like no real heat of any kind.

 

If there were 5 nominees still the line-up would be Belfast/Dune/Licorice Pizza/The Power of the Dog/West Side Story so expect the winner to be one of those.

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