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Best Picture Predictions: 2022

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Black Panther 2

The Batman

Lightyear

Knives Out 2

Top Gun 2

Thor 4

Nope

Across The Spider-Verse

The Gray Man

 

Laugh at me all you want, but after the last few years' ratings were in the toilet, I'd be shocked if ABC/AMPAS don't push hard to add in as much populist fare as possible, even if that means they lose all their integrity....what little they had. Throw in some nominations for Dwayne Johnson and Elizabeth Olsen and Tom Cruise while you're at it just to be safe.

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They can push hard but the voters will pick whatever they want, it doesn't matter. Just look at Gucci flopping and Spider-Man getting no major precursor support

 

A reasonable top 10 now would be:

 

 

"Babylon", Damien Chazelle (PARAMOUNT)

"Empire of Light", Sam Mendes (SEARCHLIGHT)

"The Fablemans", Steven Spielberg (UNIVERSAL)

"Killers of the Flower Moon", Martin Scorsese (APPLE)

"Poor Things", Yorgos Lanthimos (SEARCHLIGHT)

"Rustin", George C. Wolfe (NETFLIX)

"The Son", Florian Zeller (SPC)

"Thirteen Lives", Ron Howard (MGM)

"Untitled David O. Russell", David O. Russell (FOX)

"White Noise", Noah Baumbach (Netflix)

 

ALT:

"Across the Spider-Verse" (SONY)

"All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt" (A24)

"Armageddon Time", James Gray (FOCUS)

"Avatar 2", James Cameron (FOX)

"The Batman", Matt Reeves (WB)

"The Banshees of Inisherin", Martin McDonagh (SEARCHLIGHT)

"Bardo", Alejandro Inarritu

"Bones and All", Luca Guadagnino

"Broker", Hirokazu Kore-eda

"Crimes of the Future", David Cronenberg (NEON)

"Decision To Leave", Park Chan-Wook

"Don't Worry, Darling", Olivia Wilde (WB)

"Elvis", Baz Luhrmann (WB)

"The Greatest Beer Run Ever", Peter Farrelly (APPLE)

"The Holdovers", Alexander Payne

"Nope", Jordan Peele (UNIVERSAL)

"She Said" "(UNIVERSAL)

"TAR", Todd Field (FOCUS)

"The Whale", Darren Aronofsky (A24)

"Women Talking", Sarah Polley (MGM)

"The Wonder", Sebastian Lelio (NETFLIX)

 

ACTOR:

Austin Butler, Elvis

Christian Bale, Untitled David O. Russell

Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Adam Driver, White Noise

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Kelvin Harrison, Chevalier

Franz Rogowski, Passages

Ramy Youssef, Poor Things

Ben Whishaw, Passages

 

ACTRESS:

Naomie Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

Cate Blanchett, TAR

Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Regina King, Shirley

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Florence Pugh, Don't Worry, Darling/The Wonder

Margot Robbie, Babylon/Untitled David O. Russell

Taylor Russell, Bones and All

Emma Stone, Poor Things 

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Don Cheadle, White Noise

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Paul Dano, The Batman/The Fablemans

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Tom Hanks, Elvis

Brad Pitt, Babylon

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Seth Rogen, The Fablemans

Harry Styles, Don't Worry, Darling

Michael Ward, Empire of Light

John David Washington, Untitled David O. Russell

Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

Laura Dern, The Son

Claire Foy, Women Talking

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Greta Gerwig, White Noise

Vanessa Kirby, The Son

Rooney Mara, Women Talking

Frances McDormand, Women Talking

Sadie Sink, The Whale

Michelle Williams, The Fablemans

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I'm not quite sure what to make of the David O. Russell movie because nobody knows how much his previous drama will come back in this day and age. I guess good for the movie that it's 20th Century/Disney, who have been good about dodging controversy with productions with allegedly problematic people involved.

 

Pretty sure it goes without saying, given the subject matter and its ties to the industry, that She Said is gonna end up the most talked about movie out of everything in contention this season (you can already hear folks on Twitter brandishing their "look at the Hollywood elites already cashing in on the Weinstein scandal" knives for whenever the first trailer drops). FWIW I read the book and unless they really change things up dramatically for the adaptation, Mulligan and Kazan are definite co-leads with little argument for category fraud. Patricia Clarkson plays a very important third role as the Times editor who oversaw the investigation, so best bet is those two go Lead while she's their main supporting push.

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-On paper Killers of the Flower Moon feels far and away the biggest thing in the race and the perfect movie to win Marty and Thelma their last competitive oscars, even more than the Irishman. It's been talked about as a project since at least Wolf of Wall Street, it had a very publicized production history because of the insane budget, and it brings together Marty's favorite leads for the first time.  It also has an "important" subject, it isn't about gangsters so the haters can suck on that and I have a feeling Gladstone will have the rare big female role  in a Scorsese film. The haters might have to suck on that too. But at the same time it's gonna be such a huge contender before it's even out that there's nowhere to go but down.

-Spielberg and Chazelle projects sound very oscar friendly and with tons of glamour and pedigree. If their reviews hit their usual average they 're gonna be in for everything.

-I have no idea what the new DOR is about besides the expected big cast, but I feel like he might be one of those directors that was a huge academy darling for a few years and then he wasn't.

-Peele and Lanthimos are definately hot right now and on Academy's radar but their next films could easily be just too weird for oscars. 

 

I know very little to nothing about everything else, but just about the Weinstein scandal movie that I didn't know was a thing until now, it certainly sounds like the biggest busted bait of the year.

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8 hours ago, Joel M said:

but just about the Weinstein scandal movie that I didn't know was a thing until now, it certainly sounds like the biggest busted bait of the year.

The book is great and has plenty of potential for a highly compelling movie though, very Spotlight-esque in the way in which it chronicles the investigation that took him down and shines a light on the people who truly need to be held accountable for the cover-up, the majority of whom are A-list celebrity lawyers familiar to those who follow the American legal world (and even before the book were more famous for being "brands" than for being actual crusaders for justice). It would take a group of hacks to make an uninteresting movie out of the source, and luckily that's not the case: Unorthodox was a terrific series that proved Maria Schrader is the perfect person to handle such delicate subject matter, while neither Mulligan or Kazan ever made Weinstein films or owe their careers to him in any way so backlash should be nonexistent towards them. Most details about the movie are being kept under wraps because everyone involved knows it's destined to be a conversation starter, but I wouldn't expect a star-studded dramatization of recent controversies ala Bombshell.

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Killers of the Flower Moon officially confirmed for a November release.

 

Meanwhile, I had forgotten Cannes wasn't that far off. Elvis (since Baz has opened the festival repeatedly and it'll be a few weeks away from opening) and Top Gun 2 (which I believe was supposed to play there two years ago before COVID happened) make the most sense among the higher-profile titles in their predictions: Cannes 2022 Film Festival: Which Movies Might Be in Official Selection – The Hollywood Reporter

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Important to follow the international titles at Cannes. This is where recently Drive My Car, Worst Person in the World, Cold War, Amour, Parasite premiered and crossed over into the awards race.

 

Except 2020 because COVID, Cannes is on a streak of BP/Director noms

 

2021: Drive My Car.

2019: Parasite. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2018: Black Klansman. Cold War (Director)

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The Batman's gonna be an interesting contender after Joker. After seeing it, I feel like it's in pretty solid shape for Sound+Cinematography (usual Batman categories) and probably VFX/Editing (the latter is highly dependent on competition). If it can manage Production Design and Makeup, it's probably in for Picture. Paul Dano getting nominated would be the real icing on the cake.

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21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Now as we try to move away from the aftermath of this year's show and looking forward to next season:

 

 

He only got 2/10 right last year lol

 

But most of these aren't bad. Fablemans and Killer Moon are obviously safe choices. Babylon is a bizarre omission, that's getting in.

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I think Everything Everywhere should be taken seriously. A24 has stumbled with campaigns recently and genre is still a hard sell for Academy but it has strong reviews, passionate fanbase, and a diverse selling point. There's usually 1 pre-fall BP nom, as well. (Not saying it's BP)

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1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

He only got 2/10 right last year lol

 

But most of these aren't bad. Fablemans and Killer Moon are obviously safe choices. Babylon is a bizarre omission, that's getting in.

They have it listed under "Alternates." I guess they're taking into account that Paramount hasn't had a Best Picture nominee in over half a decade (Arrival/Fences) plus Chazelle's previous movie sorta kinda underperforming (First Man probably would've gotten in had it been released in December vs. fizzling at the box office in October).

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