Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[filmlover]

Independent Spirit Award nominees:

 

FILM CATEGORIES

Best Feature
“Bones and All”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Our Father, the Devil”
“Tár”
“Women Talking”

 

Best Director
Todd Field – “Tár”
Kogonada – “After Yang”
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Sarah Polley – “Women Talking”
Halina Reijn – “Bodies Bodies Bodies”

 

Best Lead Performance

Cate Blanchett – “Tár”
Dale Dickey – “A Love Song”
Mia Goth – “Pearl”
Regina Hall – “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”
Paul Mescal – “Aftersun”
Aubrey Plaza – “Emily the Criminal”
Jeremy Pope – “The Inspection”
Taylor Russell – “Bones and All”
Andrea Riseborough – “To Leslie”
Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

 

Best Supporting Performance

Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Brian Tyree Henry – “Causeway”
Nina Hoss – “Tár”
Brian D’Arcy James – “The Cathedral”
Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Trevante Rhodes – “Bruiser”
Theo Rossi – “Emily the Criminal”
Mark Rylance – “Bones and All”
Jonathan Tucker – “Palm Trees and Power Lines”
Gabrielle Union – “The Inspection”

 

Best Screenplay
“After Yang”
“Catherine Called Birdy”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Tár”
“Women Talking”

 

Best First Screenplay
“Bodies Bodies Bodies”
“Emergency”
“Emily the Criminal”
“Fire Island”
“Palm Trees and Power Lines”

 

Best First Feature
“Aftersun”
“Emily the Criminal”
“The Inspection”
“Murina”
“Palm Trees and Power Lines”

 

John Cassavetes Award (Given to the best feature made for under $500,000)
“The African Desperate”
“A Love Song”
“The Cathedral”
“Holy Emy”
“Something in the Dirt”

 

Best Cinematography
“Aftersun”
“Murina”
“Neptune Frost”
“Pearl”
“Tár”

 

Best Documentary
“House Made of Splinters”
“All that Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“Midwives”
“Riotsville, U.S.A.

 

Best Editing
“Aftersun”
“The Cathedral”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
“Tár”

 

Robert Altman Award (Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast)

“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

 

Best International Film
“Corsage”
“Joyland”
“Leonor Will Never Die”
“Return to Seoul”
“Saint Omer”

 

Producers Award
Liz Cardenas
Tory Lenosky
David Grove Churchill Viste

 

Best Breakthrough Performance
Frankie Corio – “Aftersun”
Garcija Filipovic – “Murina”
Stephanie Hsu – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Lilly McInerny – “Palm Trees and Power Lines”
Daniel Zolghardi – “Funny Pages”

 

Someone to Watch Award
Adamma Ebo – “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul”
Nikyatu Jusu – “Nanny”
Araceli Lemos – “Holy Emy”

 

“The Truer Than Fiction Award”
Isabel Castro – “Mija”
Reid Davenport – “I Didn’t See You There”
Rebeca Huntt – “Beba”

 

https://variety.com/2022/awards/awards/2023-independent-spirit-awards-nominations-1235438877/

[filmlover]

Was The Whale ineligible here? Not even Fraser showing up is a bit of a surprise.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

On 11/22/2022 at 11:58 AM, filmlover said:

Was The Whale ineligible here? Not even Fraser showing up is a bit of a surprise.

Don't the Gothams and Indie Spirits have similar budget limits? How expensive can The Whale be? Perhaps Fraser is not sweeping after all...

 

Also mildly riveted by the awards pundits turning on Scott Feinberg. Sure the sexism has jumped out before, but I wonder how much of this is jealousy/resentment about his status in Oscar journalism.

 

 

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Don't the Gothams and Indie Spirits have similar budget limits? How expensive can The Whale be? Perhaps Fraser is not sweeping after all...

 

Also mildly riveted by the awards pundits turning on Scott Feinberg. Sure the sexism has jumped out before, but I wonder how much of this is jealousy/resentment about his status in Oscar journalism.

 

 

Between the dumb takes he's been sharing these past few days like the now-deleted She Said tweet (pretending as if Weinstein was some mastermind at selling movies and not a successful bully who got his way thanks to threats and a strong legal team behind him that ensured the silence of his victims is certainly...a choice) and the Letitia Wright controversy, it's baffling how he's in the position of the major Oscar predictor that he occupies.

Edited November 23, 2022 by filmlover

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Between the dumb takes he's been sharing these past few days like the now-deleted She Said tweet (pretending as if Weinstein was some mastermind at selling movies and not a successful bully who got his way thanks to threats and a strong legal team behind him that ensured the silence of his victims is certainly...a choice) and the Letitia Wright controversy, it's baffling how he's in the position of the major Oscar predictor that he occupies.

An early start? It helps a lot to get a foothold in the podcasting world. I can think of some other media big names who were just first in the game vs the most talented.

 

Weinstein sucked in a number of ways besides the predatory abusiveness: the "Harvey Scissorhands" reputation, burying international films to do English language remakes. He was losing his grip on awards season even before the downfall, which points to his success being more about money/intimidation.

 

Yet some of Weinstein's most notorious awards season antics weren't so much about money? Trying to sell Carol as a "dangerous thriller" was truly unhinged: none of the studio pundits in the game now would even try such a thing.

 

We don't need Weinstein back, but a lot of studios these days have terrible strategies for awards season, even Twitter randos would know better. Like, how many people have been saying Netflix was picking the wrong movies as #1? Apple was smart with CODA but the competition being the latest Chilly Netflix Masterpiece helped a lot. The Oscar world is changing and I'm not sure the Awards Industrial Complex knows how to adjust.

[filmlover]

35 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

An early start? It helps a lot to get a foothold in the podcasting world. I can think of some other media big names who were just first in the game vs the most talented.

 

Weinstein sucked in a number of ways besides the predatory abusiveness: the "Harvey Scissorhands" reputation, burying international films to do English language remakes. He was losing his grip on awards season even before the downfall, which points to his success being more about money/intimidation.

 

Yet some of Weinstein's most notorious awards season antics weren't so much about money? Trying to sell Carol as a "dangerous thriller" was truly unhinged: none of the studio pundits in the game now would even try such a thing.

 

We don't need Weinstein back, but a lot of studios these days have terrible strategies for awards season, even Twitter randos would know better. Like, how many people have been saying Netflix was picking the wrong movies as #1? Apple was smart with CODA but the competition being the latest Chilly Netflix Masterpiece helped a lot. The Oscar world is changing and I'm not sure the Awards Industrial Complex knows how to adjust.

Tbh I think the campaigns the past few years have gotten rough because we’re still navigating the post-COVID landscape that has clearly impacted how Oscar watchers see movies due to the closing of the buzziest chains and the quick manner in which they hit streaming, after theatrical runs where they made little. One could attribute the low grosses of this fall’s contenders to concepts that never had much commercial viability, but we’re seeing some stunningly low grosses this fall and it’s unlikely to get much better with what little has yet to be released. No one should believe for one second that Women Talking abandoning its original release strategy right as the season’s other #MeToo contender was about to open is any coincidence: they know it’s just as doomed financially and are hoping releasing during the midst of actual awards season will help it in theaters. Movies are gonna have to survive on how much awards voters actually like them since it appears they won’t have box office to help them out.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Tbh I think the campaigns the past few years have gotten rough because we’re still navigating the post-COVID landscape that has clearly impacted how Oscar watchers see movies due to the closing of the buzziest chains and the quick manner in which they hit streaming, after theatrical runs where they made little. One could attribute the low grosses of this fall’s contenders to concepts that never had much commercial viability, but we’re seeing some stunningly low grosses this fall and it’s unlikely to get much better with what little has yet to be released. No one should believe for one second that Women Talking abandoning its original release strategy right as the season’s other #MeToo contender was about to open is any coincidence: they know it’s just as doomed financially and are hoping releasing during the midst of actual awards season will help it in theaters. Movies are gonna have to survive on how much awards voters actually like them since it appears they won’t have box office to help them out.

Too bad it seems truly over for Clint Eastwood at WB, because stuff like The Mule or Gran Torino would be fine in this box office environment (and Richard Jewell needed another title, like "American Injustice: The FBI vs Richard Jewell" or something). Cry Macho flopped, but he was a bit frail to sell that character and it was day-and-date last year. This season is crying out for a late-breaking hit to change the awards conversation-that used to be Clint's sweet spot.

Edited November 24, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Too bad it seems truly over for Clint Eastwood at WB, because stuff like The Mule or Gran Torino would be fine in this box office environment (and Richard Jewell needed another title, like "American Injustice: The FBI vs Richard Jewell" or something). Cry Macho flopped, but he was a bit frail to sell that character and it was day-and-date last year. This season is crying out for a late-breaking hit to change the awards conversation-that used to be Clint's sweet spot.

I have already written off this year and looking to next when we'll have a potentially iconic campaign from BCoop (possibly double the BCoop if the Spielberg movie gets fast-tracked to an end of year release).

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

This one is being underestimated by pundits/Gold Derby players who don't like it:

 

 

Bohemian Rhapsody won 4 Oscars and Elvis brings more filmmaking flair to the table... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Ezen Baklattan]

2 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

This one is being underestimated by pundits/Gold Derby players who don't like it:

 

 

Bohemian Rhapsody won 4 Oscars and Elvis brings more filmmaking flair to the table... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah, Elvis is back in my top 10. Also have it in Actor, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, and maybe Sound. 

 

I'd even consider an outside chance of Luhrmann taking Chazelle's spot in Director.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

50 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

Yeah, Elvis is back in my top 10. Also have it in Actor, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, and maybe Sound. 

 

I'd even consider an outside chance of Luhrmann taking Chazelle's spot in Director.

What if Hanks is one of those performances that gets Razzie and Oscar nominations in the same year? It just happened with Glenn Close a couple years ago...

[interiorgatordecorator]

5 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

This one is being underestimated by pundits/Gold Derby players who don't like it:

 

 

Bohemian Rhapsody won 4 Oscars and Elvis brings more filmmaking flair to the table... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I refuse to watch this till the 4 hour cut comes out

[WrathOfHan]

Gotham winners:

Feature: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Lead Performance: Danielle Deadwyler

Supporting Performance: Ke Huy Quan
Screenplay: TÁR

Documentary: All That Breathes

International: Happening

Breakthrough Director: Charlotte Wells

Breakthrough Performer: Gracija Filipović

[stripe]

Agree about Elvis chances. Don't get why there are so many doubts about its BP nomination.

 

It's a huge hit IN CINEMAS

It's a biopic... of a music legend! (Oscars love these type of films)

It's very well positioned in Best Actor race

It's showy, so it will be a contender in tech awards (sound, editing, costume...)

The Director has many supporters/fans

Competition is not fierce this year. Do we really think Academy will consider niche films such as Tàr or Triangle of Sadness over Elvis?

[filmlover]

Oscars 2023 Will Include All 23 Categories Presented Live on Air (EXCLUSIVE) https://t.co/Gu0t8tnnGT

— Variety (@Variety) November 29, 2022

[Maggie]

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. The Whale
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Women Talking
6. TÁR
7. She Said
8. Elvis
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Decision to Leave

[John Marston]

Top Gun will get a nomination. The Academy has to in fact if they want to try and increase ratings

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Top Gun will get a nomination. The Academy has to in fact if they want to try and increase ratings

I don't think that when a member casts his vote he thinks about the ratings.  And btw Joker was a huge success too (over 1B) and the ratings still flopped. The members don't care about ratings. They awarded films like Coda and Nomadland which few people have seen

Edited November 29, 2022 by Maggie

[stripe]

 

11 hours ago, Maggie said:

I don't think that when a member casts his vote he thinks about the ratings.  And btw Joker was a huge success too (over 1B) and the ratings still flopped. The members don't care about ratings. They awarded films like Coda and Nomadland which few people have seen

 

Top Gun's success and global impact is on another whole level. Not even slightly comparable to Joker. It's more like Avatar, Black Panther, Indiana Jones, or Lord of the Rings... 

I agree that AMPAS members don't care about ratings of the Awards ceremony, but they really do care a lot about success in cinemas. And this year it looks like they will care more than ever.

It also helps that the reception of "prestige" films such as She Said, The Whale or Babylon have been a bit underwhelming.

[CoolioD1]

I don’t think top gun is gonna get nominated because of a desperate bid for relevancy, I agree most voters do not care, I think it’s going to get nominated because that movie is crack for boomers.