Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[WrathOfHan]

On 4/18/2022 at 8:14 PM, filmlover said:

The Grand Budapest Hotel and Get Out are recent first quarter releases that managed to maintain buzz for the whole year and resulted in becoming major contenders. It doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility that Everything Everywhere might still be in the conversation by the time 2022 closes, especially if an on-paper frontrunner or two ends up stumbling along the way.

Not to mention Black Panther, Fury Road, and CODA to some extent (premiered in January, released in August without much buzz and slowly crept up throughout the season). We're past the point of early year releases being non-starters, especially now that the pandemic has changed what's a hit. If anything, Batman's probably been hurt a bit for techs by Everything Everywhere sucking up all the critical acclaim.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

[4815162342]

7 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

Not surprised at all. From the movie thread we learned a few months ago that Plemons' character apparently doesn't show up until halfway through

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

If this is true, then

 

ACTOR:

Diego Calva, Babylon (PARAMOUNT)

Leonardo DiCaprio, Flower Moon (APPLE)

Colman Domingo, Rustin (NETFLIX)

Brendan Fraser, The Whale (A24)

Hugh Jackman, The Son (SPC)

ALT: Adam Driver, White Noise (NETFLIX)

UNDISTRIBUTED: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

 

Babylon will be a top-tier contender and Actor/BP usually match up well enough, feels right for a fresh face to get swept in. Butler will be the Egerton/Rocketman of the year. Bale will not survive the reception of the David O. Russell. Driver is transforming with a fat suit and makeup which leaves him in the mix but White Noise might be a weird movie

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (SEARCHLIGHT)

Robert De Niro, Flower Moon (APPLE)

Brad Pitt, Babylon (PARAMOUNT)

Jesse Plemons, Flower Moon (APPLE)

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)

ALT: Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (UNIVERSAL)

 

Dano is nearly due for a nomination and his role will be juicy in The Fablemans but Michelle Williams might be the big acting showcase of the film. "Abusive" dads are hit/miss here. We've gotten consistent double noms so I trust Flower Moon being strong enough for both De Niro/Plemons. Dafoe is playing Frankenstein in a Lanthimos Searchlight film..he's in unless it sucks. Pitt is locked, he's not going to miss for this. And Ke Huy Quan is in the breakout film of the year and will be a passionate underdog ala Kotsur last year.  WATCH OUT FOR SOMEONE FROM THIRTEEN LIVES, FYI. Viggo can be frauded here

 

The article said "Leo is one of the leads" which would imply Gladstone, as well, but I'll keep her Supporting for now. 

Edited April 23, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[snarkmachine]

Viggo seems to have a lot of supporters in the Academy (though I don't know if Green Book has changed that). His out of nowhere nom for Captain Fantastic is still a head scratcher

Edited April 24, 2022 by snarkmachine

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, snarkmachine said:

Viggo seems to have a lot of supporters in the Academy (though I don't know if Green Book has changed that). His out of nowhere nom for Captain Fantastic is still a head scratcher

He played a widowed father having to take care of his several children on his own in a well-received indie. AMPAS love it when actors (especially ones known for more heroic roles like Aragorn) take on parts like that which allow them to fully show off their range.

[Joel M]

20 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

The article said "Leo is one of the leads" which would imply Gladstone, as well, but I'll keep her Supporting for now. 

 

I've been thinking Gladstone is gonna be a lead in this for a while and we know they have repurposed the story when the movie was still up in the air. It's still no clear though, if she doesn't have considerably more screentime than anyone else except Leo and it's more spread out, they can easily fraud her into supporting.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

31 minutes ago, Joel M said:

 

I've been thinking Gladstone is gonna be a lead in this for a while and we know they have repurposed the story when the movie was still up in the air. It's still no clear though, if she doesn't have considerably more screentime than anyone else except Leo and it's more spread out, they can easily fraud her into supporting.

I always assume studios will category fraud when they can which gives her an actual shot at winning Supporting.

 

Leading would be stacked if she is placed there. Supporting looks weak now

 

I'd predict

LEAD

Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (SEARCHLIGHT)

Lily Gladstone, Killers of Flower Moon (APPLE)

Margot Robbie, Babylon (PARAMOUNT) *could possibly go Supporting*

Emma Stone, Poor Things (SEARCHLIGHT)

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere (A24)

ALT:

Naomie Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody (SONY)- will this actually be good?

Cate Blanchett, TAR (FOCUS)- will be good but will it be accessible?

Regina King, Shirley (NETFLIX)- will this actually be good x2/come out in 2022?

Carey Mulligan, She Said (UNIVERSAL)- will this actually be good x3?

 

Predicting 2 Searchlight films might be risky but they're best Oscar studio. Stone has the showiest role of her life and was previously nominated under Lanthimos. Colman is awards royalty and the film is a Sam Mendes love-letter to cinema. Major British bait

 

SUPPORTING:

Hong Chau, The Whale (A24)

Laura Dern, The Son (SPC) *could go Lead*

Jean Smart, Babylon (PARAMOUNT)

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (UNIVERSAL)

 

Can't even think of a 5th spot:

Patricia Clarkson. She Said (UNIVERSAL)- will this be good?

Sally Field, Spoiler Alert (FOCUS)- sleeper?

Greta Gerwig, White Noise (NETFLIX)- will this be good/Leading?

Nina Hoss, TAR (FOCUS)- coattail to Blanchett?

Sadie Sink, The Whale (A24)- coattail instead of Chau?

Someone from Women Talking (Buckley/McDormand/Foy/Mara)- will this even be accessible for Oscar voters?

[filmlover]

After finally seeing Everything Everywhere...yeah, it's likely sticking around for the rest of the year and might become a major contender.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Some release dates via ComicCon (not previously reported)

 

The Son- October

 

Three Thousand Years of Longing- August 31st

 

Bones and All- (fall)

 

Women Talking- late December

 

https://cinemacon.com/programjournal2022/#page=132

[filmlover]

On 4/24/2022 at 3:32 PM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

ALT:

Naomie Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody (SONY)- will this actually be good?

Anthony McCarten has delivered no less than three biopic acting wins alone. Plus the nominations for Hopkins and Pryce for The Two Popes. Betting against him, or a role as obviously iconic and juicy as Whitney Houston, would be a fool's errands at this point.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Anthony McCarten has delivered no less than three biopic acting wins alone. Plus the nominations for Hopkins and Pryce for The Two Popes. Betting against him, or a role as obviously iconic and juicy as Whitney Houston, would be a fool's errands at this point.

We'll see. I'm not as confident about this one. Lemmons got a nomination for Erivo for Harriet but she doesn't have track record that is all that promising. Doesn't help she took over pre-production after the original director was dropped for "creative differences". I don't like that Bary Ackroyd of all DPs is cinematography on this. Feels like it's a mess. And Sony strangely rushed a Tom Hanks movie that is still filming to be released adjacent. 

 

Don't think this one has as much prestige either. Two Popes was legendary actors (Hopkins and Pryce) directed by someone with a couple solid films. Bohemian Rhapsody was prestige with exception of Singer and produced by Graham King. Theory of Everything was a Stephen Hawking film. The last 2 were BP and Two Popes was probably 10th. This will be Actress at best by all accounts and if it's not good, Ackie might be a SAG only situation

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

We'll see. I'm not as confident about this one. Lemmons got a nomination for Erivo for Harriet but she doesn't have track record that is all that promising. Doesn't help she took over pre-production after the original director was dropped for "creative differences". I don't like that Bary Ackroyd of all DPs is cinematography on this. Feels like it's a mess. And Sony strangely rushed a Tom Hanks movie that is still filming to be released adjacent. 

 

Don't think this one has as much prestige either. Two Popes was legendary actors (Hopkins and Pryce) directed by someone with a couple solid films. Bohemian Rhapsody was prestige with exception of Singer and produced by Graham King. Theory of Everything was a Stephen Hawking film. The last 2 were BP and Two Popes was probably 10th. This will be Actress at best by all accounts and if it's not good, Ackie might be a SAG only situation

Lemmons also directed that Octavia Spencer limited series that earned her an Emmy nomination (over some pretty stiff competition too) despite coming and going with hardly anyone noticing, and this always sounded like a Best Actress play more than anything else. Given that this movie's mere existence is bound to reignite interest in Houston around the time it opens (especially now that we're a decade removed from her death), it would need to be a total disaster for Ackie to not be a strong contender.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

Lemmons also directed that Octavia Spencer limited series that earned her an Emmy nomination (over some pretty stiff competition too) despite coming and going with hardly anyone noticing, and this always sounded like a Best Actress play more than anything else. Given that this movie's mere existence is bound to reignite interest in Houston around the time it opens (especially now that we're a decade removed from her death), it would need to be a total disaster for Ackie to not be a strong contender.

Octavia Spencer got in on name recognition, not because Lemmons direction

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Netflix picked up Inarritu's Bardo

 

Good luck releasing a film by a murderer. Going to be a totally cool, nothing to see here roll-out!

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

MUBI picked up Decision To Leave

 

We can probably write that one off from the major categories

[interiorgatordecorator]

40 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

MUBI picked up Decision To Leave

 

We can probably write that one off from the major categories

 

Unless he did it out of solidarity with his fellow koreans over the vicious covid surge they went through this year I dont understand why this happened

Still excited about being able to watch it so early  

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

Avatar 2 vs Top Gun this years big oscar race?

 

Both will get a lot of tech noms, but can they both do best picture? 

Really starting to feel bad for banshees of inisherin-tier movies

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Avatar 2 vs Top Gun this years big oscar race?

 

Both will get a lot of tech noms, but can they both do best picture? 

Really starting to feel bad for banshees of inisherin-tier movies

It's CinemaCon. Take any sort of buzz that comes from there with a grain of salt.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Paramount will already have Babylon. I don't think 2 can happen. And Avatar 2 will still have the better technical categories on lock like Editing + Cinematography + Production Design + Score which usually are hallmarks for a top 10 film

 

Top Gun, at best, is like... Editing (unlikely but still), Sound, VFX, Song. Maybe if it's a legit hit..PGA will happen (slight chance for WGA if other films ineligible)