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filmlover

Best Picture Predictions: 2022

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Apart from Elvis, any other film who's oscar chances appear to have  increased (or decreased) based on what was shown at cinema-con?

The first glimpse of She Said seemed very well-received from what very little was shown from it (they'll definitely be hiding the more "scandalous" revelations that aren't really public knowledge for when people see the movie). Amsterdam was also shown its first footage as well. It's always the summer movies that come away with the most buzz from CinemaCon since those are the ones about to come out and the audience being mostly exhibitors getting a taste of what they'll be showing.

Edited by filmlover
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May Predictions:

 

Picture:

 

1. She Said

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Avatar 2

4. The Fabelmans

5. The Son

6. Elvis

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once

8. Babylon

9. Three Thousand Years of Longing

10. Poor Things

Alt: Amsterdam

 

Director:

 

1. James Cameron, Avatar 2

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

4. Maria Schrader, She Said

5. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Alt: Damien Chazelle, Babylon

 

Actor:

 

1. Austin Butler, Elvis

2. Hugh Jackman, The Son

3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin

5. Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing

Alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

 

Actress:

 

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Margot Robbie, Babylon

3. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing

4. Viola Davis, The Woman King

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said

Alt: Laura Dern, The Son

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

3. John David Washington, Amsterdam

4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Alt: Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

 

Supporting Actress:

1. Jean Smart, Babylon

2. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

3. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Vanessa Kirby, The Son

5. Zoe Kazan, She Said

Alt: Margot Robbie, Amsterdam

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Three Thousand Years of Longing

4. Babylon

5. Elvis

Alt: Bardo

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. She Said

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. The Son

4. Poor Things

5. White Noise

Alt: Avatar 2

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If the movie follows the book I'm not sure how they're gonna make a case for putting either Kazan or Mulligan in Supporting because the two reporters are unquestionably co-leads (Patricia Clarkson is the one locked to go Supporting). Unless we end up with a Spotlight situation where everyone goes Supporting and the subject matter being the real Lead (which you could probably make a case is really how it should be, when dealing with a topic as delicate as the exposure of heinous sex crimes).

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5 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

From the article:

 

“In addition, Apple has several undated films expected, notably Martin Scorsese’s “The Killers of the Flower Moon” with Leonardo DiCaprio and Jesse Plemons. The Oscar-winning director of “The Departed” is also still in the editing room with longtime collaborator Thelma Schoonmaker. Scorsese is known for his long process of finishing his movies, and despite wrapping in September 2021, the $200 million movie adaptation could also face a possible move to 2023.”

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3 hours ago, SLAM! said:

 

From the article:

 

“In addition, Apple has several undated films expected, notably Martin Scorsese’s “The Killers of the Flower Moon” with Leonardo DiCaprio and Jesse Plemons. The Oscar-winning director of “The Departed” is also still in the editing room with longtime collaborator Thelma Schoonmaker. Scorsese is known for his long process of finishing his movies, and despite wrapping in September 2021, the $200 million movie adaptation could also face a possible move to 2023.”

The Wolf of Wall Street barely made its holiday release by the skin of its teeth after rumors it was gonna be delayed back in the day and it's only May so perhaps too soon to say for sure, especially when I assume this doesn't need the immense amount of visual effects work that The Irishman did.

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https://deadline.com/2022/05/doctor-strange-in-the-multiverse-of-madness-box-office-1235020251/

 

Quote

Essentially the Marvel movie has two more weekends of play before Tom Cruise’s long-awaited Paramount/Skydance sequel Top Gun: Maverick arrives over Memorial Day with an outlook of $75M-$100M over 4-days; that pic already on fire and championed by the media to be an Oscar Best Picture contender.

 

You all doubted me. You all said there was no way the Academy would give up and just nominate a bunch of blockbusters. And yet...

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13 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

https://deadline.com/2022/05/doctor-strange-in-the-multiverse-of-madness-box-office-1235020251/

 

 

You all doubted me. You all said there was no way the Academy would give up and just nominate a bunch of blockbusters. And yet...

It's May, don't start bragging yet lol.

 

The Academy should be more worried about whether the ceremony itself can be saved at this point, especially coming off what ended up being their most controversial year in quite some time (if not ever).

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Distribution wise, Top Gun: Maverick being under Paramount is going to help it. The only other primetime Oscar contender Paramount will be pushing this year is Babylon. And yeah, Babylon is the safer bet for Oscar recognition; but Paramount isn’t in the same boat as Searchlight Pictures, which has to balance Banshees of Inisherin, The Menu, Next Goal Wins, and Poor Things. Paramount gets to consolidate their biggest pushes to two films, and each one has strengths in their own categories; push Babylon really hard for acting and writing, then push Top Gun: Maverick for Sound and VFX. The films are two sides of a coin, and that’s the coin Paramount’s putting down. So Paramount only having to focus hard on campaigning those two films is going to help both of them, I think. Whether Top Gun uses that to get to Best Picture, we’ll see—but PGA is in the cards.

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10 hours ago, filmlover said:

Ceremony date announced (can we please go back to early February? Thank you)

 

Oscars 2023 Date Set for March 12 - Variety


On the bright side, the nominee announcement is in January again. If all the Oscar players release in December and leg into theaters through January, then a February announcement defeats the purpose of those late releases since theaters might cut an initially low-grossing Oscar film before the academy can even announce that it’s nominated… So the announcement being in January gives Oscar films less time to fall out of theaters and more time to become potential breakouts, which is very good.

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Thirteen Lives is pretty much a streaming dump now having just moved up for a limited theatrical run in August followed by a release on Amazon shortly after that. First major contender we can strike off the list?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Thirteen Lives is pretty much a streaming dump now having just moved up for a limited theatrical run in August followed by a release on Amazon shortly after that. First major contender we can strike off the list?

 

It sounds like Amazon wants to take advantage of August's vapid theatrical slate. But an August release date could be damaging regardless of how good the movie is. Plus, MGM has other films they can push for the awards season including Bones & AllWomen Talking, and Three Thousand Years of Longing.

 

This decision is a headscratcher because conventional wisdom suggests Thirteen Lives is the stronger on-paper Oscar player than all of those films. Amazon said they did this to make the film a "Summer tentpole" for Amazon Prime, which might work for the service, idk. Now with the timing, Thirteen Lives may not be able to get the film festival buzz it could have. It can't release in places like Toronto and Venice. As it stands now, Thirteen Lives would need an enthusiastic reception on par with BlacKkKlansman to overcome the release date, or the film could die on the vine. It may depend on the amount of the theaters their "limited release" will encompass; some high-profile "limited releases" have ballooned into wider and wider releases.

 

I don't think it's dead yet. Amazon still sounds confident about the film and have clear business reasons for doing it, so their rhetoric doesn't make it sound like a dump. It is Amazon, though; of course they're going to hype up their film, since, well, it's their film, they want people to see it. We'll see. If anything, Colin Farrell, who was in the mix for Supporting Actor, probably has a decreased chance for getting nominated because of this.

Edited by SLAM!
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1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Aint that the CODA method?

CODA was a Sundance acquisition from Apple, this is a demotion from an awards-time wide holiday release to a dumpy August streaming launch.

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Posted (edited)

Howard’s film had received the best test scores in MGM history — earning a 97 in the top two boxes and an 86 “definite recommend”. It was originally set for release on April 15th but then got rescheduled for a prime November 18th date.

 

do they use post-track for test screenings?

Edited by interiorgatordecorator
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