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Best Picture Predictions: 2022

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POST Cannes

 

PICTURE:

1. Babylon (PARAMOUNT)

2. Killers of Flower Moon (APPLE)

3. The Fabelmans (UNIVERSAL)

4. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)

5. Avatar 2 (FOX)

6. The Son (SPC)

7. Empire of Light (SEARCHLIGHT)

8. Poor Things (SEARCHLIGHT)

9. Thirteen Lives (MGM/AMAZON)

10. Bardo (NETFLIX)

 

Not buying Elvis. Not yet. It's currently 62 metacritic, 6.80 Rotten Tomatoes average. Baz is a very polarizing filmmaker (Gatsby got a B cinemascore and is only film of his to make more than 57m, Moulin Rogue B+). It's not as broad as Bohemian Rhapsody so it needs major box office to last throughout the year. Thirteen Lives being dumped in August is very concerning and MGM's Amazon deal is troublesome but I trust the test reactions on it and its appeal to a large demographic of the Academy. I swapped White Noise out for Bardo because Inarritu but I'm not confident in that despite his track record.

 

DIRECTOR:

Chazelle, Babylon

Scorsese, Killers of Flower Moon

Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Daniels, Everywhere Everywhere

Cameron, Avatar 2

 

I'm not at all firm about the last 3. Spielberg misses when he's not undeniable. Everywhere Everywhere might be too lowbrow or scifi for directing branch despite the vision. And Cameron can miss if Avatar 2 isn't revelatory. Park is in the mix after Cannes. Inarritu cannot be discounted but he has high expectations. Searchlight is the best studio so watch out for Lanthimos or Mendes

 

ACTOR: 

Calva, Babylon

DiCaprio, Killers of Flower Moon

Domingo, Rustin

Fraser, The Whale

Jackman, The Son

 

Calva is my NGNG. I have Butler out. BP correlates too strongly here, so he needs Elvis to be a legit contender or else he's potentially another Rocketman situation because Fraser and Domingo are also strong contenders without a safe BP nom.

 

ACTRESS:

Colman, Empire of Light

King, Shirley

Robbie, Babylon

Stone, Poor Things

Yeoh, Everything Everywhere

 

Maybe toughest category yet. Ackie will be in the running but that's giving me red flags. Blanchett will be major player for Tar but that Todd Field film feels very highbrow/alienating. 

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Dafoe, Poor Things

De Niro, Killers of Flower Moon

Pitt, Babylon

Plemons, Killers of Flower Moon

Quan, Everything Everywhere

 

Can't count out Dano for Fabelmans, I just have double Flower Moon since that's common in this category

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Dern, The Son

Gladstone, Killers of Flower Moon

Sink, The Whale

Smart, Babylon

Williams, The Fabelmans

 

I have Sink in. She's receiving buzz for Stranger Things and coattailing Fraser as his daughter makes sense.

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Babylon

Bardo

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere

The Fabelmans

 

This could get very kooky if something like Bros catches on

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Killers of Flower Moon

Poor Things

The Son

White Noise

Women Talking

 

White Noise and Women Talking should factor heavily with writers even if they're not across board players. I have The Son in as the play adaptation over The Whale

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8 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Triangle of Sadness won the Palme d'Or and Broker best actor for Song Kang-ho. Both are distributed by Neon in the US so will presumably get an Oscar push, although neither has overwhelming Drive My Car-level acclaim that would make them serious contenders. James Gray has now been in competition 5 times and has won nothing but Armageddon Time's initial reception seems solid enough that maybe he can finally break into the Oscars especially since for once he's got a distributor that won't bury his movie.

Triangle of Sadness feels like a lone screenplay nominee, and Song getting into Actor could happen if the category stays as barren as it looks now (plus Intl. assuming South Korea selects Broker over Decision to Leave).

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15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Triangle of Sadness feels like a lone screenplay nominee, and Song getting into Actor could happen if the category stays as barren as it looks now (plus Intl. assuming South Korea selects Broker over Decision to Leave).

I don't think Lead Actor is barren:

 

Assuming 2022:

Austin Butler, Elvis- the star is born performance of the year

Diego Calva, Babylon- fresh face breakout in a major BP contender

Daniel Cacho, Bardo

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killer Moon- always in the running

Colman Domingo, Rustin- acclaimed actor in a Netflix biopic

Adam Driver, White Noise- wearing transformative makeup and fat suit for a Baumbach movie

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins/The Killer

Brendan Fraser, The Whale- the comeback narrative of the year

Hugh Jackman, The Son- popular actor in an Oscar winning director's followup

Bill Nighy, Living- respected veteran in a Sundance hit

Someone from 13 Lives (Viggo, Farrell)

Someone from Empire of Light (Firth/Ward)

 

Pitt or Dafoe could end up Lead for their movies, too

 

Maybe 2022:

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers- Payne's comeback, possible crowdpleaser

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Potential titles for Venice Film Festival premieres:

Quote

 

As Venice artistic director Alberto Barbera begins to lock in his selection, Variety understands there are four Netflix original films in the Venice mix.

 

The streamer’s Venice titles include Andrew Dominik’s Marilyn Monroe drama “Blonde” starring Bond girl Ana de Armas (“No Time to Die”) as the Hollywood icon; Noah Baumbach’s “White Noise,” with Greta Gerwig, Adam Driver and Jodie Turner-Smith, which is based on the 1985 novel of the same name by Don DeLillo; “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” the new film from Oscar winner Alejandro G. Iñárritu, which chronicles the story of a Mexican journalist and documentary filmmaker going through an existential crisis; and Romain Gavras’ modern tragedy “Athena,” co-written by the French “The World is Yours” director with “Les Miserables” filmmaker Ladj Ly.

 

Marilyn Monroe Biopic 'Blonde' Leading Netflix Pack of Venice Hopefuls - Variety

 

Other notables in the mix: Don't Worry Darling, Bones & All, Ticket to Paradise, The Son, Tar

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On 5/28/2022 at 10:40 PM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't think Lead Actor is barren:

 

Assuming 2022:

Austin Butler, Elvis- the star is born performance of the year

Diego Calva, Babylon- fresh face breakout in a major BP contender

Daniel Cacho, Bardo

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killer Moon- always in the running

Colman Domingo, Rustin- acclaimed actor in a Netflix biopic

Adam Driver, White Noise- wearing transformative makeup and fat suit for a Baumbach movie

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins/The Killer

Brendan Fraser, The Whale- the comeback narrative of the year

Hugh Jackman, The Son- popular actor in an Oscar winning director's followup

Bill Nighy, Living- respected veteran in a Sundance hit

Someone from 13 Lives (Viggo, Farrell)

Someone from Empire of Light (Firth/Ward)

 

Pitt or Dafoe could end up Lead for their movies, too

 

Maybe 2022:

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers- Payne's comeback, possible crowdpleaser

I wonder if Paramount can make a Tom Cruise narrative happen. 

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14 minutes ago, grim22 said:

I wonder if Paramount can make a Tom Cruise narrative happen. 

I doubt it, in addition to all the personal baggage he carries he just seems so far entrenched in action roles now that it's hard to remember there was a time where he was actually considered a strong actor in addition to a certified Movie Star. It's not hard to imagine a scenario that he could've been an Oscar winner by now if not for certain choices that set him on a different path.

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Focus just placed Michael Showalter's Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies (which based on the premise sounds like The Big Sick with a gay couple and a sad ending) as their year-end entry in the awards race with the early December limited release date. Interesting that Armageddon Time is still without a release date even though it's already been seen at Cannes.

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36 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Focus just placed Michael Showalter's Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies (which based on the premise sounds like The Big Sick with a gay couple and a sad ending) as their year-end entry in the awards race with the early December limited release date. Interesting that Armageddon Time is still without a release date even though it's already been seen at Cannes.

the day i've long feared is finally upon us... a jim parsons oscar vehicle.

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2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things is 2023

 

Searchlight's fall slate will be See How They Run (Sept), Banshees of Inisherin (Oct), The Menu (Nov), and Empire of Light, Next Goal Wins, and Chevalier (TBD)

I'm guessing Next Goal Wins December? That's ready for a long ass time. Also. Will they really cram all those this year? 

 

They seem to be putting one in each month. SEP, OCT, NOV and I guess there will be one in DEC? The others either late 2023 or very early 2023

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3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things is 2023

 

Searchlight's fall slate will be See How They Run (Sept), Banshees of Inisherin (Oct), The Menu (Nov), and Empire of Light, Next Goal Wins, and Chevalier (TBD)

Empire of Light will likely get December after 1917 was a Top 2 contender. Guessing the others also end up in 2023.

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Just now, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Is Austin Butler actually going to win after all? Jackman doesn't make a lot of sense to me

Prayer circle for Academy Award Nominee Winner Colman Domingo to become a reality with a juicy biopic role.

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