Super Bowl/Valentine's Weekend Thread | Nile 1.1M Previews, Marry Me 525K

[Borobudur]

Death on the Nile.....More like Death of the Theater...

Moonfall....More like theaterFall...

[Cmasterclay]

I do think theaters are dying but also think that Death on the Nile flopping as expected is in no way what led me to think that, so I guess I'm the third-party of these boards?

[Krissykins]

40 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Nobody did any promo for the movie because one of its stars has been under investigation by the LAPD. Add to that the fact at least three other people from the movie (including Gal herself) also found themselves in hot water during the time the movie languished on the shelf and it's been obvious for a while that this was to be dumped without fanfare. On the bright side, at least it'll have the bragging rights of being the #1 movie for at least one weekend, something it wouldn't have enjoyed in its pre-COVID October 9, 2020 date (where it would've been saddled between Venom 2 and Halloween Kills).

Some of the British stars have at least been posting about it on social media though.

 

Gal having some Twitter controversy doesn’t have anything to do with her deleting all the old posts about Death on the Nile. She’s continued to happily promote other projects. 
 

I get that they were released from promo contracts when it was decided it would be dumped. But to go back and delete everything related to it over the last few years is strange.

[filmlover]

Can we talk about this movie coming out next weekend with Channing Tatum and a dog? Who knew Turner & Hooch would be a hot property Hollywood would try to revive both officially (that D+ series got cancelled after one season) and unofficially?

 

[Krissykins]

Just now, filmlover said:

Can we talk about this movie coming out next weekend with Channing Tatum and a dog? Who knew Turner & Hooch would be a hot property Hollywood would try to revive both officially (that D+ series got cancelled after one season) and unofficially?

 

Great tagline though. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Can we talk about this movie coming out next weekend with Channing Tatum and a dog? Who knew Turner & Hooch would be a hot property Hollywood would try to revive both officially (that D+ series got cancelled after one season) and unofficially?

 

The Domesticated Animal Cinematic Universe is on full steam ahead! Pig, Lamb, and now Dog. And in a very subtle nod to the early Marvel adaptations, all of these characters belong to different studios! Time truly is a circle.

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

Sad at the Death numbers. Adults aren't bothering with theaters. Hopefully Spidey was not a fluke, but i suspect only Marvel and Jurassic will perform well this summer.

 

You're out of your mind if you think that only Marvel and Jurassic will perform well this summer.  

[Last Man Standing]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Can we talk about this movie coming out next weekend with Channing Tatum and a dog? Who knew Turner & Hooch would be a hot property Hollywood would try to revive both officially (that D+ series got cancelled after one season) and unofficially?

 

This is the movie that will save Hollywood.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Not fully sure about Marry Me, but Death on the Nile would have flopped even in a world where the pandemic never happened. Its cast is a huge downgrade from Orient Express, it's a leftover from a dead regime and one of its costars is a straight up insane man. The Disney-Fox merger and Armie Hammer's downfall were both independent from the pandemic, and would have still happened in a more ideal alternate timeline.

 

Basically, it's not really a good measurement for the state of theaters today. Yeah, anything not Marvel or horror has an uphill climb these days, but Nile was fucked from the moment the Fox merger was completed.

[EmpireCity]

The real measurement of the state of theaters begins in late March and April.  The Lost City will be a good indicator if a movie that looks fun and is loaded with star power and is almost a throwback will perform.  

 

Follow that up with April that has a wide variety of movies from Marvel to Wizarding World to a non-Transformers Michael Bay to a Nic Cage studio comedy that could break out.  

 

The Summer of 2022 will tell you everything.  If somehow Downton Abbey / Top Gun: Maverick disappoint, Elvis flops and Bullet Train can't make money, then I will be right there in the chorus of theatrical has changed forever and it will likely be a lot less movie theaters and a complete focus on tentpole movies.  

 

I remain optimistic.  I think Downton Abbey will perform, Top Gun: Maverick with be huge and Elvis will be a breakout hit.  

 

Right now there is just way too much that was either long delayed or not good or we are still suffering the last effects of Omicron hesitancy.  I think all that changes as the weather changes in late March.  

[filmlover]

The trailer for The Lost City has gotten great reactions every time I've seen it at the movies (including before my showing of Nile last night). I think it could be a breakout of sorts, if the unpredictable market will allow it.

[The Wild Eric]

50 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Can we talk about this movie coming out next weekend with Channing Tatum and a dog? Who knew Turner & Hooch would be a hot property Hollywood would try to revive both officially (that D+ series got cancelled after one season) and unofficially?

 

The trailer for that always takes me out because the big ending gag is Channing Tatum pretending to be blind, which is…kinda gross?

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, Eric Poirot said:

The trailer for that always takes me out because the big ending gag is Channing Tatum pretending to be blind, which is…kinda gross?

 

I mean, that's the exact point of the scene.  

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The real measurement of the state of theaters begins in late March and April.  The Lost City will be a good indicator if a movie that looks fun and is loaded with star power and is almost a throwback will perform.  

 

Follow that up with April that has a wide variety of movies from Marvel to Wizarding World to a non-Transformers Michael Bay to a Nic Cage studio comedy that could break out.  

 

The Summer of 2022 will tell you everything.  If somehow Downton Abbey / Top Gun: Maverick disappoint, Elvis flops and Bullet Train can't make money, then I will be right there in the chorus of theatrical has changed forever and it will likely be a lot less movie theaters and a complete focus on tentpole movies.  

 

I remain optimistic.  I think Downton Abbey will perform, Top Gun: Maverick with be huge and Elvis will be a breakout hit.  

 

Right now there is just way too much that was either long delayed or not good or we are still suffering the last effects of Omicron hesitancy.  I think all that changes as the weather changes in late March.  

 

While I do think I'm a tad more bullish than most of "the chorus" here, this does also depend on just what "disappoint" and "succeed" actually means. Not to resurrect the kerfuffle over Ghostbusters: Afterlife (as I truly am sick of the low-key bickering over it), that did reflect a possible disagreement on just what would success/disappoint actually be.

 

Like, what would be a success for Maverick?  Same for Downton Abbey 2?  Not looking for exact numbers here (which is the trap discussion over G:A fell into), but more ranges.  Conversely, what is disappointing for various movies?  Are we using 2018/19 as the standard?  Something in-between 2019 and 2021, if weighted toward one end or the other?  Or is it more a vibe, which of course also sets up the stage for all sorts of disagreements.

 

(staying away from FB3 as that has its own sets of issues that can be pointed to should it flop)

[Pinacolada]

27 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Not fully sure about Marry Me, but Death on the Nile would have flopped even in a world where the pandemic never happened. Its cast is a huge downgrade from Orient Express, it's a leftover from a dead regime and one of its costars is a straight up insane man. The Disney-Fox merger and Armie Hammer's downfall were both independent from the pandemic, and would have still happened in a more ideal alternate timeline.

 

Basically, it's not really a good measurement for the state of theaters today. Yeah, anything not Marvel or horror has an uphill climb these days, but Nile was fucked from the moment the Fox merger was completed.

Add on top of all that, the budget being almost 2x the amount of Murder on the Orient Express. That part seriously makes 0 sense to me and I feel like it can't be stressed enough

[filmlover]

BTW the CinemaCon schedule has just been posted and so far Disney isn't participating. Will they? Who knows.

 

2022 Schedule of Events - CinemaCon

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The trailer for The Lost City has gotten great reactions every time I've seen it at the movies (including before my showing of Nile last night). I think it could be a breakout of sorts, if the unpredictable market will allow it.

And this is the related problem.  Just what IS a breakout in the current market? Or this summer?

 

Take Free Guy.  That's nearly universally considered to be a breakout in the context of 2021 during the Delta surge. It was seen as having an over-performing OW AND it had killer legs. But would an exact same performance be considered a "breakout" this summer if there is no variant to deal with?  

 

I don't know.  At least it'd be the subject of Annoying Discourse thanks to the legs vs OW arguments.

 

So that's kinda where my head is at on whether or not the theaters are DOOOOOOOOOOMED.   I don't even know if there is a consensus on what would be success/failure flop/breakout for some of the films coming down the pike.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Porthos

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

And this is the related problem.  Just what IS a breakout in the current market? Or this summer?

 

Take Free Guy.  That's nearly universally considered to be a breakout in the context of 2021 during the Delta surge. It was seen as having an over-performing OW AND it had killer legs. But would an exact same performance be considered a "breakout" this summer if there is no variant to deal with?  

 

I don't know.  But I tend to think not.  Or at least it'd be the subject of Annoying Discourse thanks to the legs vs OW arguments.

 

So that's kinda where my head is at on whether or not the theaters are DOOOOOOOOOOMED.   I don't even know if there is a consensus on what would be success/failure flop/breakout for some of the films coming down the pike.

I think anything over $15M would be good for The Lost City and anything over $20M would be in the "great" department. Helps that it's literally become the only other attraction in March besides Batman over the past few weeks.

[Maggie]

I think Downton Abbey will follow into the footsteps of Death on the Nile. Major flop.

 

Top Gun 2, you know my prediction. I can't see more than 50M OW, and i'm being optimistic now

 

 

[Flopped]

25 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The trailer for The Lost City has gotten great reactions every time I've seen it at the movies (including before my showing of Nile last night). I think it could be a breakout of sorts, if the unpredictable market will allow it.

 

If it becomes a hit, I can't think of an actress with a longer shelf life as a box office draw than Sandra Bullock.