Fullbuster Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Yeah well.Lets see..SM3 only did 14 mill in 2007..So it could be a little lower2007 is old for Russia you know, the Russian BO is twice bigger this year.And look at this for Russia :-Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) : $7.8 million-Harry Potter and the Order of Phoenix (2007) : $16.3 million-Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince (2009) : $18.7 million-Harry Potter 7-1 (2010) : $26.3 million-Harry Potter 7-2 (2011) : $36.8 million-Pirates of the Caribbean 2 (2006) : $27.5 million-Pirates of the Caribbean 3 (2007) : $30.8 million-Pirates of the Caribbean 4 (2011) : $63.7 million-Transformers (2007) : $15.1 million-Transformers 2 (2009) : $18.2 million-Transformers 3 (2011) : $45.1 million-Twilight New Moon (2009) : $18.6 million-Twilight Eclipse (2010) : $26.4 million-Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 1 (2011) : $31.8 millionIt's impressive, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Russian film market is huge now.It will be bigger and bigger in future. Oh yeah, in the future the Russian film market will be way bigger than France,Germany and Japan market, Hollywood understood it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentryTrans Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 It should act like China..Just on a smaller scaleRussian film market is more liberal than China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentryTrans Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Both Madagascar 3 and Ice Age 4 will become huge monsters in this summer in Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentryTrans Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 20% growth is expected this year for the Russian BO, so we'll have great numbers.Oh My God!That means about 200m admissions in 2012! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Oh My God!That means about 200m admissions in 2012! More like 175m admissions, +20% is about the size of the market ($1.15 billion in 2011) -> growth of admissions + growth of ticket prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Both Madagascar 3 and Ice Age 4 will become huge monsters in this summer in Russia. Oh yes, I forgot them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebomb Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Russia is becoming like a mini-China. Nice to see big growth there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Every blockbuster will become a monster in Russia. Seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Every blockbuster will become a monster in Russia. Seriously.Oh yeah! I can't wait for Battleship and The Avengers there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) Considering everybody's love for LOTR and the positioning of The Hobbit right before the holidays, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it followed Avatar's suit and made over $100 million. I think it can definitely make around $25 million on OW, and end up with at least $80 million. It's going to be absolutely huge, and rest assured, if the first film is received well enough, There And Back Again will be gunning for Avatar's record come December 2013.Ice Age 4 has a good chance to follow PIB and SFA and make over $50 million, though if TASM performs like POTC4, then IA4 could pull a Kung Fu Panda 2 and burn out at $40 million or so, especially since this isn't the franchise's first foray into 3D.Speaking of TASM, it certainly can make $50 million off of $20-25 million opening week. SM3 might have grossed $14 million in 2007, but that made it the highest-grossing comic book movie here for several years to come. With the addition of 3D, TASM will be big, really big.TDKR opens two weeks after IA4 and has no real competition ahead of it, but considering how badly both BB and TDK underperformed (the latter only made $8.6 million, though it was pushed back a month and was easily the most pirated movie during that time), I think WB should be happy if TDKR manages $30+ million. Working in its favor, aside from lack of competition, is the much better awareness (TDK might not have made much in theaters, but a lot of people watched it afterwards), and the fact that Inception managed $22 million two years ago. But with the lack of 3D and relative weakness of the brand name compared to the likes of Spider-Man, TDKR can only go so high.I would also be surprised if Battleship made more than $35 million. True, it looks visually spectacular, but it also doesn't have 3D or any real hook besides that. Transformers 3, being a 3D threequel in a popular franchise and released in the middle of the summer, didn't go above $45 million. BS won't approach that either.The Avengers will also almost certainly make $30 million, and might make it to $40-45 million, but like with TF3, I highly doubt it'll go higher. It's in 3D, yes, but also a superhero film and, unlike TASM, a part of the franchise that was never very popular here - Thor was the highest grossing with only $16.5 million. Like in the US, it's reasonable to assume The Avengers will double that, but won't go much higher.Otherwise, I see $20-25 million at most for MIB3, $40-55 million for Madagascar 3, $20 million for ALVH (mostly because of Bekmambetov's name and 3D), $15-25 million for Brave and GI Joe 2, $20-25 million for SWATH, and $10-15 million for Bourne Legacy and Total Recall. Edited April 9, 2012 by Jake Gittes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 2007 is old for Russia you know, the Russian BO is twice bigger this year.And look at this for Russia :-Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) : $7.8 million-Harry Potter and the Order of Phoenix (2007) : $16.3 million-Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince (2009) : $18.7 million-Harry Potter 7-1 (2010) : $26.3 million-Harry Potter 7-2 (2011) : $36.8 million-Pirates of the Caribbean 2 (2006) : $27.5 million-Pirates of the Caribbean 3 (2007) : $30.8 million-Pirates of the Caribbean 4 (2011) : $63.7 million-Transformers (2007) : $15.1 million-Transformers 2 (2009) : $18.2 million-Transformers 3 (2011) : $45.1 million-Twilight New Moon (2009) : $18.6 million-Twilight Eclipse (2010) : $26.4 million-Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 1 (2011) : $31.8 millionIt's impressive, isn't it?Do you have the LOTR numbers? It's just to compare with these franchises. In BOM is a little ambiguous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Considering everybody's love for LOTR and the positioning of The Hobbit right before the holidays, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it followed Avatar's suit and made over $100 million. I think it can definitely make around $25 million on OW, and end up with at least $80 million. It's going to be absolutely huge, and rest assured, if the first film is received well enough, There And Back Again will be gunning for Avatar's record come December 2013.Ice Age 4 has a good chance to follow PIB and SFA and make over $50 million, though if TASM performs like POTC4, then IA4 could pull a Kung Fu Panda 2 and burn out at $40 million or so, especially since this isn't the franchise's first foray into 3D.Speaking of TASM, it certainly can make $50 million off of $20-25 million opening week. SM3 might have grossed $14 million in 2007, but that made it the highest-grossing comic book movie here for several years to come. With the addition of 3D, TASM will be big, really big.TDKR opens two weeks after IA4 and has no real competition ahead of it, but considering how badly both BB and TDK underperformed (the latter only made $8.6 million, though it was pushed back a month and was easily the most pirated movie during that time), I think WB should be happy if TDKR manages $30+ million. Working in its favor, aside from lack of competition, is the much better awareness (TDK might not have made much in theaters, but a lot of people watched it afterwards), and the fact that Inception managed $22 million two years ago. But with the lack of 3D and relative weakness of the brand name compared to the likes of Spider-Man, TDKR can only go so high.I would also be surprised if Battleship made more than $35 million. True, it looks visually spectacular, but it also doesn't have 3D or any real hook besides that. Transformers 3, being a 3D threequel in a popular franchise and released in the middle of the summer, didn't go above $45 million. BS won't approach that either.The Avengers will also almost certainly make $30 million, and might make it to $40-45 million, but like with TF3, I highly doubt it'll go higher. It's in 3D, yes, but also a superhero film and, unlike TASM, a part of the franchise that was never very popular here - Thor was the highest grossing with only $16.5 million. Like in the US, it's reasonable to assume The Avengers will double that, but won't go much higher.Otherwise, I see $20-25 million at most for MIB3, $40-55 million for Madagascar 3, $20 million for ALVH (mostly because of Bekmambetov's name and 3D), $15-25 million for Brave and GI Joe 2, $20-25 million for SWATH, and $10-15 million for Bourne Legacy and Total Recall.like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Do you have the LOTR numbers? It's just to compare with these franchises. In BOM is a little ambiguousSorry, no :(But this is the BOM numbers for people :-Lord of the Rings 1 (2001) : $7.2 million-LOTR 2 (2002) : $8.9 million-LOTR 3 (2003) : $12.1 millionIt's so old, and Russia is so big now...Bilbo the Hobbit will surpass $60 million I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) Considering everybody's love for LOTR and the positioning of The Hobbit right before the holidays, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it followed Avatar's suit and made over $100 million. I think it can definitely make around $25 million on OW, and end up with at least $80 million. It's going to be absolutely huge, and rest assured, if the first film is received well enough, There And Back Again will be gunning for Avatar's record come December 2013.Ice Age 4 has a good chance to follow PIB and SFA and make over $50 million, though if TASM performs like POTC4, then IA4 could pull a Kung Fu Panda 2 and burn out at $40 million or so, especially since this isn't the franchise's first foray into 3D.Speaking of TASM, it certainly can make $50 million off of $20-25 million opening week. SM3 might have grossed $14 million in 2007, but that made it the highest-grossing comic book movie here for several years to come. With the addition of 3D, TASM will be big, really big.TDKR opens two weeks after IA4 and has no real competition ahead of it, but considering how badly both BB and TDK underperformed (the latter only made $8.6 million, though it was pushed back a month and was easily the most pirated movie during that time), I think WB should be happy if TDKR manages $30+ million. Working in its favor, aside from lack of competition, is the much better awareness (TDK might not have made much in theaters, but a lot of people watched it afterwards), and the fact that Inception managed $22 million two years ago. But with the lack of 3D and relative weakness of the brand name compared to the likes of Spider-Man, TDKR can only go so high.I would also be surprised if Battleship made more than $35 million. True, it looks visually spectacular, but it also doesn't have 3D or any real hook besides that. Transformers 3, being a 3D threequel in a popular franchise and released in the middle of the summer, didn't go above $45 million. BS won't approach that either.The Avengers will also almost certainly make $30 million, and might make it to $40-45 million, but like with TF3, I highly doubt it'll go higher. It's in 3D, yes, but also a superhero film and, unlike TASM, a part of the franchise that was never very popular here - Thor was the highest grossing with only $16.5 million. Like in the US, it's reasonable to assume The Avengers will double that, but won't go much higher.Otherwise, I see $20-25 million at most for MIB3, $40-55 million for Madagascar 3, $20 million for ALVH (mostly because of Bekmambetov's name and 3D), $15-25 million for Brave and GI Joe 2, $20-25 million for SWATH, and $10-15 million for Bourne Legacy and Total Recall.Great comment :)I just hope you're wrong about Batman TDKR,after all TF3 did much better than TF2, so Batman TDKR could do much better than Batman TDK $30 million for The Avengers would be nice, I hope more but that would be ok Edited April 9, 2012 by Fullbuster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) ROTK was released after the holidays, in late January 2004, and made just over $14 million which was a record at the time. It was shortly eclipsed by Night Watch which made $15.5 million in summer 2004.TTT opened with $2.6 million and likely closed with a little less than $10 million.As far as Batman (in reply to Fullbuster's comment) - well, TF3 made $45 million after TF2 made $17 million, so when I predict that TDKR will make $30 million after TDK couldn't make $9 million, and will make it without 3D, it's actually pretty damn optimistic Edited April 9, 2012 by Jake Gittes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Oh, and for Prometheus, I'm thinking $25-30 million is the high end. Actually low 20s, a la Inception, might be more realistic, even with 3D. It's worth noting that two big space adventire/action films released here since 2004 - ROTS and Star Trek - did very poorly even despite the brand names. ROTS couldn't manage $10 million, and ST made, like, half of that. So there's that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Sorry, no :(But this is the BOM numbers for people :-Lord of the Rings 1 (2001) : $7.2 million-LOTR 2 (2002) : $8.9 million-LOTR 3 (2003) : $12.1 millionIt's so old, and Russia is so big now...Bilbo the Hobbit will surpass $60 million I think.Don't worry. Thanks anyway . I'm reading here that LOTR is very well received in Russia, so as I had imagined, Hobbit will probably be massive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Well, where was LOTR not very well-received? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Well, where was LOTR not very well-received? That's true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...