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@Quigley

What are these "many countries" you mentioned? As much as I know, I2 beat HT3 in all LA markets, in UK, in France, in China (despite the depressing total), in South Korea, ecc... - and as I showed in the I2 thread its OS-China-Japan total will fall in line with the range that every uber-blockbuster of the last years (IW excluded, obviously) tend to reach (500-600M). Russia is an exception (and maybe Greece is another one), but it's understandable as there are markets where moviegoers' tastes are more unrefined than the (already high) WW average.

It's not really a matter of quality (as long as it's easily sellable, a good movie will surely make money), it's a matter of how the market currently works. Moviegoers are fidelizzati, they're made loyal to a certain brand, whose new chapters they'll follow like they follow a new football match or a new season of a TV fiction. That means young franchises are better sells, as when you wait for too long you kind of have to restart it from the beginning. All of that applies to OS markets more than NA, where successful franchises often follow this path: #2 beats #3 which beats #1 which beats #4, leading OS to account for a higher and higher % of the WW gross as the franchise goes on. That's about what happened to Shrek, to Ice Age, to the M(erd)inions, and now it's happening to Hotel Transylvania, too. A 4-year wait for a second chapter is troublesome and is justified only when the first chapter achieve a very particular status (if Frozen can survive the 6-year long wait, it's only because it's Frozen).

Pixar is obviously tending towards a mixture of easily profitable options and an overall good quality (though on paper Coco was a really tough sell that no other animated studio would ever produce,...so kudos to them). Problem is that after the release of TS4, their only franchise will probably be The Incredibles, so they have to find something new. They should alternate great "solo" (=not aimed at sequels) movies (like Coco and Inside out) and projects meant to potentially start new franchises - they should just avoid making bad movies that are not easy to sell (Good Dinosaur in primis).

Also, it's not like I2 isn't breaking records. It shuttered the DOM record and became one of the top 3 animated movies of all time in pretty much every LA country and in the UK. It will be the #2 animated film of all time WW despite a loooong wait that potentially made some recently developed countries make it act like a first chapter and not like a sequel. Nothing to be disappointed about - in fact, I was skeptical about 1B just a few weeks before its release.

 

That said, it's true that Pixar and Disney have yet to own a (WW) uber franchise. Dreamworks had Shrek, Blue Sky had Ice Age and Illumination has Despicable Me. Let's see how TS4 and Frozen 2 behave next year, and if Pixar quickly announce an I3.

Edited by Omni
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On 8/25/2018 at 6:16 PM, Omni said:

@Quigley

What are these "many countries" you mentioned? As much as I know, I2 beat HT3 in all LA markets, in UK, in France, in China (despite the depressing total), in South Korea, ecc... - and as I showed in the I2 thread its OS-China-Japan total will fall in line with the range that every uber-blockbuster of the last years (IW excluded, obviously) tend to reach (500-600M). Russia is an exception (and maybe Greece is another one), but it's understandable as there are markets where moviegoers' tastes are more unrefined than the (already high) WW average.

It's not really a matter of quality (as long as it's easily sellable, a good movie will surely make money), it's a matter of how the market currently works. Moviegoers are fidelizzati, they're made loyal to a certain brand, whose new chapters they'll follow like they follow a new football match or a new season of a TV fiction. That means young franchises are better sells, as when you wait for too long you kind of have to restart it from the beginning. All of that applies to OS markets more than NA, where successful franchises often follow this path: #2 beats #3 which beats #1 which beats #4, leading OS to account for a higher and higher % of the WW gross as the franchise goes on. That's about what happened to Shrek, to Ice Age, to the M(erd)inions, and now it's happening to Hotel Transylvania, too. A 4-year wait for a second chapter is troublesome and is justified only when the first chapter achieve a very particular status (if Frozen can survive the 6-year long wait, it's only because it's Frozen).

Pixar is obviously tending towards a mixture of easily profitable options and an overall good quality (though on paper Coco was a really tough sell that no other animated studio would ever produce,...so kudos to them). Problem is that after the release of TS4, their only franchise will probably be The Incredibles, so they have to find something new. They should alternate great "solo" (=not aimed at sequels) movies (like Coco and Inside out) and projects meant to potentially start new franchises - they should just avoid making bad movies that are not easy to sell (Good Dinosaur in primis).

Also, it's not like I2 isn't breaking records. It shuttered the DOM record and became one of the top 3 animated movies of all time in pretty much every LA country and in the UK. It will be the #2 animated film of all time WW despite a loooong wait that potentially made some recently developed countries make it act like a first chapter and not like a sequel. Nothing to be disappointed about - in fact, I was skeptical about 1B just a few weeks before its release.

 

That said, it's true that Pixar and Disney have yet to own a (WW) uber franchise. Dreamworks had Shrek, Blue Sky had Ice Age and Illumination has Despicable Me. Let's see how TS4 and Frozen 2 behave next year, and if Pixar quickly announce an I3.

 

I agree. I'm not saying I2 has failed, but there are films like Ice Age 3, Ice Age 4 and even the more recent Minions that had an OS-C-J of $600M+. Maybe ER plays an important part in this but it just feels like an excuse to say that. For whatever reason, there are films like DM3, Minions and Ice Age that are sitting at an OS gross above $700M. Pixar has had many chances to get that far but failed. I'm not just talking about I2. What about FD? FD's OS-C-J is far worse: about $440M. That's hardly a figure to be happy about. If it weren't for Frozen, Minions would be the biggest animated film of all time (OS and WW). Of course, it's not like Pixar was ever the franchise-builder type. But that's my point. No one expects you to break records when you are not a franchise builder. They suddenly have chosen to become a franchise builder though and the results, in terms of OS grosses, have not been very impressive (even though they are commercially successful).

Edited by Quigley
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Rough OS-C-J chart

Minions > 710M

Frozen > 580M

Despicable Me 3 > 550M

Despicable Me 2 > 530M

Incredibles 2 > 525M (projected)

Inside Out > 455M

Finding Dory > 440M

Pets > 405M

Zootopia > 380M

Dragon Trainer 2 > 380M

Coco > 365M

Monsters University > 355M

Croods > 335M

Boss Baby > 320M

Moana > 315M

Sing > 290M

Big Hero 6 > 275M

 

 

OS chart

Frozen 880M

Minions > 823M

Despicable Me 3 > 770M

Zootopia > 683M

Incredibles 2 > 625M (projected)

Despicable Me 2 > 603M

Coco > 597M

Finding Dory > 542M

Pets > 507M

Inside Out > 501M

Monsters University > 476M

Dragon Trainer 2 > 445M

Big Hero 6 > 435M

Croods > 400M

Moana > 395M

Sing > 364M

Boss Baby > 353M

 

As you can see, it's only a matter of the Minions. Illumination just had one of the most profitable and witty ideas of all time: (pseudo-)funny characters easy to draw and to portrait, good for memes and one-shot gags (which is perfect in a time of gifs and Instagram), with different "personalities" to make the offer more "flexible", etc...  Take the yellow bananas out of the equation, and Disney/Pixar easily own the top spots in both charts.

 

Also, your point is correct, but to be honest Pixar has yet to become a franchise builder (same about WDAS - how the heck Zootopia 2 has yet to receive a release date?). Heck, I2 is doing 1.2B+ and they have yet to announce the sequel - and that's the way you build franchises: the financial need of a sequel comes first, a solid idea for a solid plot is optional. Strike while the iron is hot.

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On 8/25/2018 at 7:16 PM, Omni said:

Russia is an exception (and maybe Greece is another one), but it's understandable as there are markets where moviegoers' tastes are more unrefined than the (already high) WW average.

What are you talking about, too unrefined to appreciate the brilliance of some other kid cartoons?

 

:wintf:

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"Kid cartoons" is a troublesome expression, as it doesn't discern a toon for kids from an animated film for kids, teens and adults. Pets belongs to the first category, Coco to the second (of course it's not always easy to put this kind of label, but still...). The fact you answered by using that expression just confirms what I was saying. And the fact that, Russia is maybe the only country (or close to that) where Inside Out was beaten by Home, is just an example of "what I was talking about" in the post above.

Other than that, it's common knowledge that Russia tends to give strong grosses to D-level films that bomb elsewhere, or that non-blockbuster movies just don't have any chance of succeeding (usually they're all out of the top 50, while in many other countries Oscar films or indie films often enter the top 50). Mine wasn't an offense, but an observation. And it was far from being the main point of my post.

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1 hour ago, Omni said:

And the fact that, Russia is maybe the only country (or close to that) where Inside Out was beaten by Home, is just an example of "what I was talking about" in the post above.

Other than that, it's common knowledge that Russia tends to give strong grosses to D-level films that bomb elsewhere, or that non-blockbuster movies just don't have any chance of succeeding (usually they're all out of the top 50, while in many other countries Oscar films or indie films often enter the top 50). Mine wasn't an offense, but an observation. And it was far from being the main point of my post.

I don't know where BOM took its figures from but Inside Out definitely wasn't beaten by Home in local currency (it made 1.066 billion rubles vs Home's 900 million) and given how close together they were released I have no idea why it would've been beaten in dollars either. 

 

You aren't that off base about the Oscar/indie films but every once in a while they make for solid mid-range performers. La La Land and The Grand Budapest Hotel come to mind as movies that did well, finishing just outside of the top 50 of their respective years. One of the problems is that it's just really hard for any movie to develop legs here if it didn't start out at the top at the first place. After two or three weeks there's just too much new competition for screens. The concept of a platform release is non-existent. 

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15 hours ago, Omni said:

"Kid cartoons" is a troublesome expression, as it doesn't discern a toon for kids from an animated film for kids, teens and adults. Pets belongs to the first category, Coco to the second (of course it's not always easy to put this kind of label, but still...).

Maybe try to watch some films actually made for adults once in a while to see the difference?

 

Disney cartoons are now produced to meet the lowest common denominator worldwide. The fact that they don't succeed in some countries isn't a sign these countries are "unrefined"; if anything, it is the opposite.

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Last week actuals.  The Equalizer 2 started on par with the first movie with $1,62 mln. The Darkest Minds did ok with $706k and 3rd place. Alpha added $635k with $8,36 mln total. 

 

https://kinobusiness.com/kassovye_sbory/weekend/2018/09.09.2018/usd/

 

The Predator did pretty good on Thursday. Around 65 mln RUB or $940k OD.

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Terrific start for Venom. 208-210 mln RUB or $3.2 mln. 

7th best OD.

 

https://kinobusiness.com/kassovye_sbory/weekend/2018/30.09.2018/usd/

 

Last week actuals. Russian drama Unforgiven won with $2.18 mln. , House with a Clock in its Walls did OK with $1.87 mln.

Edited by juni78ukr
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Saturday estimates. https://kinobusiness.com/kassovye_sbory/day/2018/10/13.10.2018/

 

Around 375 mln RUB or $5,69 mln Venom with 61% drop. Pretty good for a major comic book movie. 1575 mln RUB or $23.9 mln including Sunday. Biggest ever Sony movie in Russia. 2nd best this year after Avengers. Most likely will pass 2 bln RUB or $30 mln with current exchange rates.

 

Bad Times at the El Royale did ok with $930-940k. First Man bombed with only $540-550k. 

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