FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE SECRETS OF DUMBLEDORE WEEKEND THREAD | Read the first post for the rules

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Why is Sonic performing so badly? This is so unexpected

It played too much like a family film on the weekdays.

[ZeeSoh]

8 minutes ago, Maggie said:

At least 40M must happen, right?

Both Morbius (which had worse reception as well as super early previews) and Crimes of Grindelwald had around 6.8x multi from their previews. That will take TSoD just above 40m. Good Friday/Easter will skew things but I think it should clear 40m at the very least. 

[narniadis]

Rough Thursday then it would appear. The wide disparity in the tracking thread was interesting, makes me wonder what the next film to behave in such a way would be. 

 

Poor Sonic a 150% increase still wouldnt be enough to guarantee 30m

[Eric Atreides]

Just now, Maggie said:

Why is Sonic performing so badly? This is so unexpected

Mickey's Law. For the non-Disney studios, anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

4.4M Thursday for Sonic 2. Yep sub 30m second weekend happening. 200m is dead.

I wouldn't put much stock in weekdays for family movies since their target audience tends to be busy with, you know, school.

 

Its first week is ahead of the first film by 12% so it's already a win in my book, especially with how badly family movie sequels usually fare and how reluctant families have been to come back until now.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Here's something that legit bugs me with these Morbius Sweep memes. Why are fries and beans part of these GIFs? Is there a joke I'm missing?

I think the beans thing is a reference to the dude eating beans in a theater.

[filmlover]

That doesn't seem very good at all when you consider previews started at 2:00. It's not looking much better from yesterday at the theaters near me either.

 

lol Father Stu fell 50%+ from its opening day. An opening in the mid-single digits area it is then.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

Both Morbius (which had worse reception as well as super early previews) and Crimes of Grindelwald had around 6.8x multi from their previews. That will take TSoD just above 40m. Good Friday/Easter will skew things but I think it should clear 40m at the very least. 

Nah, the 2pm preview start time sinks the multi. By how much, we dont know yet but its yet another negative factor toward SoD's performance. 

[ThomasNicole]

EEAAO expanding to 2200 theaters 

 

Hopefully it can jump to 7M this weekend or stays flat

 

 

 

[ZeeSoh]

2 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Mickey's Law. For the non-Disney studios, anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

Didnt work for No Way Home though and heck even Uncharted for that matter. 

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I wouldn't put much stock in weekdays for family movies since their target audience tends to be busy with, you know, school.

 

Its first week is ahead of the first film by 12% so it's already a win in my book, especially with how badly family movie sequels usually fare and how reluctant families have been to come back until now.

At absolute best it can increase to 158% for Good Friday giving it $11.3m and be flat on Saturday, and it gets a $28m weekend. And that is if it follows family film trajectory of five+ years ago. It would have to mathematically do the impossible for 30m this weekend.

Edited April 15, 2022 by YourMother

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Also, I've opined previously that Sonic 2 might play out more like a Marvel movie and be more frontloaded than the first film. Families are what drove repeat viewings in the past, and that demographic has long since eroded. I'm thinking the domestic run ends at around $180M or so. Still well ahead of the first film on the very same budget, so anyone disappointed by this should lighten up a little.

[ZeeSoh]

Just now, narniadis said:

Nah, the 2pm preview start time sinks the multi. By how much, we dont know yet but its yet another negative factor toward SoD's performance. 

Morbius also had a 2-3pm preview start time and that movie had worse reception. I don't see why this one will be more frontloaded than Morbius was. The only thing that can skew the preview to OW multi will be Good Friday/Easter imo. 

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I wouldn't put much stock in weekdays for family movies since their target audience tends to be busy with, you know, school.

 

Its first week is ahead of the first film by 12% so it's already a win in my book, especially with how badly family movie sequels usually fare and how reluctant families have been to come back until now.

Its not so much being against it performing as a family film. That was expected, particularly after the demographic data came out on Sunday. The problem is, it is behaving on the low end performance wise of that particular demographic AND its facing a frontloaded to Friday weekend whereas most family films in the school year could enjoy a Saturday increase versus the drop Sonic will have. 

[Tokugennumataka]

Thu - 4.4

Fri - 11 (+150) 

Sat - 10.5 (-5) 

Sun - 7M (-35) 

28.5M (-61%) as a best case scenario. Can see 26-28M honestly. Looks like a 180-190M finisher. Safe to say 200M is dead unless a miracle happens. 

 

[Brainbug]

6M previews in a vacuum is not too bad. A 40-44M OW is not too bad in a vaccuum as well.

 

Unfortunately, FB3 doesnt exist in a vaccum. It has a real chance at not only missing the midnight preview number from DH2 that is 11 years old now (43,5M), but it also has a small chance at only grossing one full Morbillion this weekend.

 

Not ... not the greatest of numbers.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

Morbius also had a 2-3pm preview start time and that movie had worse reception. I don't see why this one will be more frontloaded than Morbius was. The only thing that can skew the preview to OW multi will be Good Friday/Easter imo. 

Morbius started at 4 iirc.

[Eric Atreides]

2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Didnt work for No Way Home though and heck even Uncharted for that matter. 

No Way Home is a Disney movie in Sony's clothing. And Uncharted is basically another Spider-Man movie. The Law exempts Spider-Man-type movies. The Law works in shifty, mysterious ways. Do not fall for their tricks.

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Its not so much being against it performing as a family film. That was expected, particularly after the demographic data came out on Sunday. The problem is, it is behaving on the low end performance wise of that particular demographic AND its facing a frontloaded to Friday weekend whereas most family films in the school year could enjoy a Saturday increase versus the drop Sonic will have. 

If it had been any other weekend, meh weekdays would be okay as it would’ve rebounded on the weekend but Easter makes the weekend highly frontloaded.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Thu - 4.4

Fri - 11 (+150) 

Sat - 10.5 (-5) 

Sun - 7M (-35) 

28.5M (-61%) as a best case scenario. Can see 26-28M honestly. Looks like a 180-190M finisher. Safe to say 200M is dead unless a miracle happens. 

 

It might pull a Deadpool 2 and recover in subsequent weekends.