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titanic2187

Top Gun: Maverick | Oscar-wining Billionaire | $1.48bn without China!

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5 hours ago, peludo said:

Spain OW has been extremely conditioned by Champions League final. The impact is similar Superbowl in USA taking into account that a Spanish team played the match.

 

And first film was not exactly a mega blockbuster. It sold 1.4 million admissions, about 10-11 million dollars adjusted. It is a bit disappointing but nothing tragic.

 

Btw, I saw the film yesterday and I think it is better than the first one. Really entertaining.

So any chance for Spanish to "redeem" themselves? for an increase in 2nd weekend? Perhaps we need @ScareLol's view here.  

 

Edited by titanic2187
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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

So any chance for Spanish to "redeem" themselves? for an increase in 2nd weekend? Perhaps we need @ScareLol's view here.  

 

I don't see an increase in 2nd weekend but the drop could be pretty small. WOM is amazing, rave reviews on Twitter, 3rd best rated film of the year according to FilmAffinity (only 2 Spanish indie darlings are ahead) and competition this week is practically zero. On the other hand, weather will be great so that will hurt

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Italy - Thursday

€533k, +10% from yesterday. Much of those because holiday, should increase more but JWD probably take many of its screen in italy. Total $6.1m so far. 10-11m finish probably the target.

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Already flat with yesterday number at the same time in Japan, let's see if it can get same evening increase like last friday around 45% increase from 7pm local time. Sub 25% decrease from last WE seems possible i think.

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Japan

 

Excellent 22.8% increase from yesterday. Only 7.5% decrease compared to first monday. If it increase at least 100% tomorrow, should get sub 20% weekend drop. Total est $16.1m

Edited by RJ 95
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24 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

Very good drop in Italy, only drop by 17% from last week. €408k yesterday, €6m total. Seems like it will drop on average 20-30% drop this weekend around europe.

 

is 450 million international possible?

if the dom weekend is 85 million then it can maybe do 550 million there

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5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

is 450 million international possible?

if the dom weekend is 85 million then it can maybe do 550 million there

I think it depend on 3 markets. SK, Japan and UK. If it can hit 40m in SK, 45-50 in Japan and 75m in UK. Then it should be possible. Small breakout in smaller markets in Europe, Asia and Australia also will help.

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6 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

. If it can hit 40m in SK, 45-50 in Japan and 75m in UK. 

 

are those on track to happen or not yet?

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Just now, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

are those on track to happen or not yet?

It hasn't opened in SK yet, i think in Japan 35-40 probably safe. Needs to see this weekend first. In UK, it has crazy runs so far. Even more than those is possible i think but yeah it's on track to get 75m i think.

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44 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

It hasn't opened in SK yet, i think in Japan 35-40 probably safe. Needs to see this weekend first. In UK, it has crazy runs so far. Even more than those is possible i think but yeah it's on track to get 75m i think.

E.R. is just making precious Japanese Yen (JPY) as Insignificant Dollar (USD). On the other hand, there is probability of South Korea to stay on top as Tom Cruise's film are more about legs than big-big OW. (Roughly, think about topping 7M admits), For Japan, I am thinking about ¥6B but this E.R. should stabilize (Because, current E.R. is most unfavorable since 1998)

 

Edit : *Most*

 

Spoiler

If $1 = ¥105 (Demon Slayer's OD) then TGM 's ¥6B ($57.2M), but Current E.R. is just making it $45.9M. The lost in USD is too high. I wish we could return back to ¥102 (Lowest E.R. recorded on Jan 2021)

 

Edited by Issac Newton
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3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

E.R. is just making precious Japanese Yen (JPY) as Insignificant Dollar (USD). On the other hand, there is probability of South Korea to stay on top as Tom Cruise's film are more about legs than big-big OW. (Roughly, think about topping 7M admits), For Japan, I am thinking about ¥6B but this E.R. should stabilize (Because, current E.R. is most unfavorable since 1998)

 

Edit : *Most*

 

  Hide contents

If $1 = ¥105 (Demon Slayer's OD) then TGM 's ¥6B ($57.2M), but Current E.R. is just making it $45.9M. The lost in USD is too high. I wish we could return back to ¥102 (Lowest E.R. recorded on Jan 2021)

 

Yeah, with overperformance in dom market. I think 40m in Japan and 30-40m in SK already enough for TG2 for 1 billion. You think it will make more in SK ? Why ?

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10 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

Yeah, with overperformance in dom market. I think 40m in Japan and 30-40m in SK already enough for TG2 for 1 billion. You think it will make more in SK ? Why ?

If we have a look on M.I. Series, Ghost Protocol had the best legs ($51M) 

 

— OW —

M.I.3 : 1.447.058 [5.740.789] (x3.96)

M.I.4 : 1.734.613 [7.575.899] (x4.36)

M.I.5 : 2.462.604 [6.126.488] (x2.48)

M.I.6 : 3.299.579 [6.584.915] (x1.99)

 

Japan - South Korea often run in parellel when it comes M.I. Indeed, SK defeat Japan on M.I.6. 

 

Film JPN - SK Relations

M.I.4 : $69M - $51M

M.I.5 : $42M - $41M

M.I.6 : $42M - $49M

 

Considering SK receiving the same type of strong reviews and WOM as in Japan, then obviously, it's gross and admits will be higher in SK then in Japan. [As Japan is suffering from E.R.] Back in SK BO. Thread, One of Local Resident has also said that some people are talking about it even when TGM is one month away from release (This happen only in case of Avengers: Endgame)

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I would be surprised if Japan missed 50 to be honest, looking like an excellent -15% in admissions (probably a tad more in gross due to a hit to its premium screens) weekend or better is in the cards and there's a lot of leeway for legs in this market so it could realistically aim for more with whats looking like great wom.

Edited by JustLurking
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5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I would be surprised if Japan missed 50 to be honest, looking like an excellent -15% in admissions (probably a tad more in gross due to a hit to its premium screens) weekend or better is in the cards and there's a lot of leeway for legs in this market so it could realistically aim for more with whats looking like great wom.

What surprise me is the ratio of admission/seats count is basically same like last week in usual location. Around 37%. Only 15% lesser seat count that make the number drop.

Edited by RJ-195
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