Elemental | Disney/Pixar | June 16, 2023 | What if elements have feelings?????? 😱😱😱😱 | Surprise sleeper hit with the biggest 2023 premiere on Disney+

[AniNate]

It's worth mentioning that Gillman is also getting an early advance screening at Annecy so it's possible there might be some confidence in its quality as well. But I think it would need to be a situation where Elemental is the Lightyear to Gillman's Puss 2

[PlatnumRoyce]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-flash-elemental-and-the-blackening-look-to-combine-for-a-strong-fathers-day-juneteenth-frame/

 

I don't really get the starkly divergent assumptions about TLM and "Pixar's theatrical brand" given that Pixar's brand has been well defined for decades pre-pandemic. If there's a massive "D+ effect" reducing interest in buying tickets, shouldn't that be reflected in a noticeably lower baseline for TLM. Instead, TLM appears to Shaun to be on pace to replicate Aladdin domestically (which is basically what you'd expect on paper and better than that because Aladdin became a genuine hit). 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-flash-elemental-and-the-blackening-look-to-combine-for-a-strong-fathers-day-juneteenth-frame/

 

I don't really get the starkly divergent assumptions about TLM and "Pixar's theatrical brand" given that Pixar's brand has been well defined for decades pre-pandemic. If there's a massive "D+ effect" reducing interest in buying tickets, shouldn't that be reflected in a noticeably lower baseline for TLM. Instead, TLM appears to Shaun to be on pace to replicate Aladdin domestically (which is basically what you'd expect on paper and better than that because Aladdin became a genuine hit). 

The live action stigma still exists and on top of that TLM has a combo of buzz and nostalgia to give it a solid baseline. Not to mention Elemental is facing the most dangerous competition for any Pixar movie. Sometimes it takes just one or a few movies to ruin a legacy, ask the DCEU or Pirates or Transformers movies or to a lesser extent Marvel currently.

Edited May 19, 2023 by YM!

[AniNate]

I think the D+ effect is overstated, if there's a lack of enthusiasm for Elemental it's mostly because of Lightyear imo. I believe that movie killed interest in the Pixar brand in general. Strange World also didn't help much in reviving Disney animation as an "event". 

Edited May 19, 2023 by AniNate

[Jonwo]

18 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I think the D+ effect is overstated, if there's a lack of enthusiasm for Elemental it's mostly because of Lightyear imo. I believe that movie killed interest in the Pixar brand in general. Strange World also didn't help much in reviving Disney animation as an "event". 

One poorly received film doesn't ruin their legacy nor does it mean no one will go see their films ever again otherwise Disney would have been killed off decades ago by films like The Black Cauldron or The Rescuers Down Under. 

 

I do wonder if Pixar's success and track record means that if they have a rough patch, they're scrutinised more than say DreamWorks Animation and that's perhaps unfair. I would say that their legacy and track record is the reason they've lasted this long and much like Marvel Studios and WDAS, they are the crown jewels of Disney and you mess with them at your peril because I don't want to see Pixar just making sequels or having to make films which are much lower quality.

 

[AniNate]

7 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

One poorly received film doesn't ruin their legacy nor does it mean no one will go see their films ever again otherwise Disney would have been killed off decades ago by films like The Black Cauldron or The Rescuers Down Under. 

 

That is not what I said and I would appreciate you stop responding with strawman claims when I'm only trying to give realistic analysis. 

 

I want Elemental to succeed as much as anyone, but it's going to have to really earn it. As much as I wish the general populace gave them the benefit of the doubt they used to, that's simply not the case anymore. And personally I too would rather the movie be a big hit because it is really good more than because it's a Pixar movie. 

 

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by AniNate

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

One poorly received film doesn't ruin their legacy nor does it mean no one will go see their films ever again otherwise Disney would have been killed off decades ago by films like The Black Cauldron or The Rescuers Down Under. 

 

I do wonder if Pixar's success and track record means that if they have a rough patch, they're scrutinised more than say DreamWorks Animation and that's perhaps unfair. I would say that their legacy and track record is the reason they've lasted this long and much like Marvel Studios and WDAS, they are the crown jewels of Disney and you mess with them at your peril because I don't want to see Pixar just making sequels or having to make films which are much lower quality.

 

This wouldn't be the end but I got a feeling if Elemental and Wish doesn't do well, we will have a similar dark ages like the 2000s era for Disney Animation with few great successes. It won't be as bad as they still got sequels that have a solid baseline. I do think if both underperform, it won't be the end of originals but we will be getting more sequels this decade and maybe absolute worse a few films that try to trend chase. However, I doubt either studio will be messed with creatively.

Edited May 19, 2023 by YM!

[YM!]

It's imperative Elemental does well though same for Wish. Studios are no longer afraid to counter program or bully the movies away. DWA has two big sequels in Kung Fu Panda and Trolls opening closely against Wish and Elio. Wicked opens the same day as Disney’s Thanksgiving 2024 movie which could be a musical. On top of that, more movies are opening ok the same day. They should really consider other spots just in case because they're at a point where the brand name isn't enough.

[JWR]

 

 

[Jonwo]

19 minutes ago, YM! said:

It's imperative Elemental does well though same for Wish. Studios are no longer afraid to counter program or bully the movies away. DWA has two big sequels in Kung Fu Panda and Trolls opening closely against Wish and Elio. Wicked opens the same day as Disney’s Thanksgiving 2024 movie which could be a musical. On top of that, more movies are opening ok the same day. They should really consider other spots just in case because they're at a point where the brand name isn't enough.

Disney aren't going to let other studios take the slots though and indeed I would imagine they will still a Pixar film in the summer and a WDAS film in November. I can see them being flexible with the Spring movies but we're not going to see a WDAS film in January or a Pixar film in September. 

[cannastop]

9 hours ago, Jonwo said:

Disney aren't going to let other studios take the slots though and indeed I would imagine they will still a Pixar film in the summer and a WDAS film in November. I can see them being flexible with the Spring movies but we're not going to see a WDAS film in January or a Pixar film in September. 

Yeah Disney is absolutely never going to open a movie in September, not one of their crown jewels.

 

The issue is if they stray from say, Father's Day Weekend or Thanksgiving, others will take their place.

[kayumanggi]

I just want this to do well to at least change the mood in this very depressing thread.

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

I just want this to do well to at least change the mood in this very depressing thread.

I agree, it's as if people want this to do badly.

[Hatebox]

Wrong thread

Edited May 20, 2023 by Hatebox

[TwoMisfits]

For the record, I think Shawn's opening weekend is low, even against the Flash.  His floor is too low - there won't be a 2 in front of the open, b/c if Shazam can break $30M, this one is (almost) certain to do so, too.  

 

Now, that could be b/c I'm also not sold on the Flash.

 

[keysersoze123]

On 5/20/2023 at 5:16 AM, TwoMisfits said:

For the record, I think Shawn's opening weekend is low, even against the Flash.  His floor is too low - there won't be a 2 in front of the open, b/c if Shazam can break $30M, this one is (almost) certain to do so, too.  

 

Now, that could be b/c I'm also not sold on the Flash.

 

I am thinking other way around. Shawn's floor is too high. its going to be buried between all the big movies. Especially Spiderverse taking most of the family audience dollars. 

[AniNate]

I think Spiderverse is going to be front loaded, especially with that 2 hour + runtime may come as an unpleasant surprise to family audiences. Also, Elemental's review embargo will break first so if it word gets out that it is really good that may give it some time in the media cycle to itself to boost ticket presales.

 

Indy 5 getting a meh reception also works in the movie's favor since buzz will now be more muted for that. I can see a scenario where June really doesn't end up being the bloodbath it's been hyped up as, for better and worse.

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I think Spiderverse is going to be front loaded, especially with that 2 hour + runtime may come as an unpleasant surprise to family audiences. Also, Elemental's review embargo will break first so if it word gets out that it is really good that may give it some time in the media cycle to itself to boost ticket presales.

 

Indy 5 getting a meh reception also works in the movie's favor since buzz will now be more muted for that. I can see a scenario where June really doesn't end up being the bloodbath it's been hyped up as, for better and worse.

Why. 1st movie had an extremely leggy run and was among the best received movies. Its not going to become a MCU movie. Plus Elemental have other issues. Zero hype and also surrounded by movies which have better attraction to families with young boys. They love Optimus Prime and there is also Flash which will appeal to young boys. For girls there is Mermaid. 

 

Absolute disaster that we have seen so far from presales confirms this is DOA. I am not convinced good reviews will save it. It needs a Inside Out level of reception to stay in the game. I doubt that will happen from Sohn. 

[Bob Train]

On 5/20/2023 at 6:18 AM, Jonwo said:

I agree, it's as if people want this to do badly.

Nah people are just being realistic about it's chances. What's the highest grossing original animated movie in the last 5 years? People clearly aren't interested in original movies anymore. People don't want to hear it, but it's the truth. Things have changed and people must accept them. Only big name directors like Nolan or Peele can make original movies do decent numbers.

[John Marston]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why. 1st movie had an extremely leggy run and was among the best received movies. Its not going to become a MCU movie. Plus Elemental have other issues. Zero hype and also surrounded by movies which have better attraction to families with young boys. They love Optimus Prime and there is also Flash which will appeal to young boys. For girls there is Mermaid. 

 

Absolute disaster that we have seen so far from presales confirms this is DOA. I am not convinced good reviews will save it. It needs a Inside Out level of reception to stay in the game. I doubt that will happen from Sohn. 

 

first Spiderverse release in Christmas. This new one being a sequel and released in the summer will absolutely be more frontloaded