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Eric Atreides

Elemental | Disney/Pixar | June 16, 2023 | What if elements have feelings?????? 😱😱😱😱 | Surprise sleeper hit with the biggest 2023 premiere on Disney+

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On 7/15/2022 at 5:18 AM, Dingdong said:

I’m convinced this will be good, but just hopefully not a rehash of their previous movies.

 

The Good Dinosaur is so damn underrated. I’m don’t think any eyes were left dry when the dino and the boy had to separate in the end.

 

This was me. It's funny because I don't cry while watching movies, but this just hit me. I was with an audience full of children. 🤣🤣🤣

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2 hours ago, JWR said:

Director Pete Sohn confirms the first teaser will drop "soon".

 

https://twitter.com/DisneyAPromos/status/1592540259300282369?t=88V7fMzBpX548XGHK7Vjew&s=19

 

 

Awesome, but I've kind of lost all hope at this point in Pixar's or Disney Animation films coming close to being hits.

 

Screw Chapek. I despise that guy.

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7 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Awesome, but I've kind of lost all hope at this point in Pixar's or Disney Animation films coming close to being hits.

 

Screw Chapek. I despise that guy.

 

I'm confident that Elemental and Wish will reverse the trend.

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Wish is celebrating Disney's 100th anniversary and this seems like a much more traditional, less controversial Pixar fare. Not a guarantee it'll be a huge hit, but the fact that Chapek reiterated that this would he a theatrical release at D23 and the investor call indicates that they're at least more confident in this compared to Lightyear and Strange World. 

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Wish will be WDAS's version of No Way Home. They're supposed to be bringing in various classic Disney villains. Also, Asha is going to be a multi-cultural heroine. And it's a musical. I think it is going to be a smash on the lines of Encanto or even Frozen.

 

Elementals-who knows. Not sure if it will reach the heights of Inside Out.

 

Now, all that said, I don't necessarily mean they will be big at the box office, just with audiences.

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3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Wish will be WDAS's version of No Way Home. They're supposed to be bringing in various classic Disney villains. Also, Asha is going to be a multi-cultural heroine. And it's a musical. I think it is going to be a smash on the lines of Encanto or even Frozen.

 

Elementals-who knows. Not sure if it will reach the heights of Inside Out.

 

Now, all that said, I don't necessarily mean they will be big at the box office, just with audiences.

 

Financially or critically?

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37 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

Financially or critically?

Well, that's complicated. I think Wish will tap back into the interest of those who have made certain classics of recent years (Frozen, Moana, Coco, Encanto). But financially, that will all depend on what direction they take with the theaters. If SW does poorly and comes out on D+ at Christmas and Elemental doesn't do that well, then they may be WAY too far gone to keep an animated film in theaters with expectations of high theatrical yield. It would have been 4 years since there was a successful Disney animated film at that point.

 

Critically-who knows. While Pixar took a massive step back with LY in terms of critics, WDAS still has not made a stinker since Good Dino (that I remember).

 

Then there's audience. Encanto couldn't do squat at the theater and has become tremendously beloved. I think Wish could do the same thing. It could fail at the BO but become very very popular. Seems to be a trend since COVID unfortunately. You can only trick people into thinking a movie will stay in theaters so much.

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14 hours ago, jedijake said:

Well, that's complicated. I think Wish will tap back into the interest of those who have made certain classics of recent years (Frozen, Moana, Coco, Encanto). But financially, that will all depend on what direction they take with the theaters. If SW does poorly and comes out on D+ at Christmas and Elemental doesn't do that well, then they may be WAY too far gone to keep an animated film in theaters with expectations of high theatrical yield. It would have been 4 years since there was a successful Disney animated film at that point.

 

Critically-who knows. While Pixar took a massive step back with LY in terms of critics, WDAS still has not made a stinker since Good Dino (that I remember).

 

Then there's audience. Encanto couldn't do squat at the theater and has become tremendously beloved. I think Wish could do the same thing. It could fail at the BO but become very very popular. Seems to be a trend since COVID unfortunately. You can only trick people into thinking a movie will stay in theaters so much.

 

See, I don't know if I believe that. Encanto and Raya came out during a time when Covid was still super prevalent. Not to mention that most children and families weren't fully vaccinated until late 2021. Same with Soul and Luca.

 

Pulling Turning Red from theaters was definitely a mistake, especially after seeing the reception it got over Lightyear. Speaking of Lightyear, that one had all sorts of unique things working against it (beyond the Gay kiss controversy):

 

- A confusing marketing campaign (GA didn't know if it was a prequel, reboot, etc)

- A niche premise (People like Buzz Lightyear the action figure who hangs out with the cowboy doll, not the movie he's based on)

- Stiff competition 

- Middling reviews

- Tepid word of mouth

 

It was never going to make Toy Story money, but those last two points were the final nail in the coffin.

 

Elemental, by contrast, looks like more typical Pixar fare and will at least be easier to market because of its straightforward premise. But in the end, it's gonna come down to the reception. 

 

Even if it's not A+ Pixar material, something would have to terribly wrong for Elemental to bomb as hard as Lightyear. But if it gets Inside Out, Coco, or even Soul level reception, I think it's gonna have strong legs. 

 

We'll just have to wait and see. 

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2 hours ago, JWR said:

 

See, I don't know if I believe that. Encanto and Raya came out during a time when Covid was still super prevalent. Not to mention that most children and families weren't fully vaccinated until late 2021. Same with Soul and Luca.

 

Pulling Turning Red from theaters was definitely a mistake, especially after seeing the reception it got over Lightyear. Speaking of Lightyear, that one had all sorts of unique things working against it (beyond the Gay kiss controversy):

 

- A confusing marketing campaign (GA didn't know if it was a prequel, reboot, etc)

- A niche premise (People like Buzz Lightyear the action figure who hangs out with the cowboy doll, not the movie he's based on)

- Stiff competition 

- Middling reviews

- Tepid word of mouth

 

It was never going to make Toy Story money, but those last two points were the final nail in the coffin.

 

Elemental, by contrast, looks like more typical Pixar fare and will at least be easier to market because of its straightforward premise. But in the end, it's gonna come down to the reception. 

 

Even if it's not A+ Pixar material, something would have to terribly wrong for Elemental to bomb as hard as Lightyear. But if it gets Inside Out, Coco, or even Soul level reception, I think it's gonna have strong legs. 

 

We'll just have to wait and see. 

Fair points, but I don't know if it's just about reception at this point. When it comes down to it, will audiences go see this in theatres en masse? Disney Animations (referring to both Pixar and WDAS collectively) have quickly depreciated in value to the point where people are content to wait to throw this on the TV at home.

 

The streaming numbers don't mean anything to me. McDonald's is at the bottom of the ladder in terms of how people view their food, yet they do amazing business and are one of the most valuable restaurants in the world.

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4 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Fair points, but I don't know if it's just about reception at this point. When it comes down to it, will audiences go see this in theatres en masse? Disney Animations (referring to both Pixar and WDAS collectively) have quickly depreciated in value to the point where people are content to wait to throw this on the TV at home.

 

The streaming numbers don't mean anything to me. McDonald's is at the bottom of the ladder in terms of how people view their food, yet they do amazing business and are one of the most valuable restaurants in the world.

 

I still contend that it will get better as the situation with covid continues to improve. And to be fair, it's not just a Disney and Pixar thing. Aside from Illumination, animated family films have been struggling to get past $250M (The Bad Guys, DC League of Super Pets, etc).

 

It'll be a while before we regularly see these movies hit the numbers we're used to seeing from them. But I do think that this, Puss in Boots, Spider-Verse 2, and Wish are gonna start reversing that trend.

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