Asyulus Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Time to update prediction and add top 11-20 before new year 2023 strikes. 1. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One | $380M DOM | $1.05B WW 2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | $415M DOM | $910M WW 3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | $255M DOM | $865M WW 4. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | $300M DOM | $830M WW 5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | $340M DOM | $790M WW 6. The Super Mario Bros. Movie | $270M DOM | $740M WW 7. Fast X | $175M DOM | $620M WW 8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | $285M DOM | $605M WW 9. The Marvels | $200M DOM | $585M WW 10. The Flash | $190M DOM | $535M WW 11. The Little Mermaid | $180M DOM | $530M WW 12. Elemental | $185M DOM | $520M WW 13. Dune: Part Two | $140M DOM | $450M WW 14. John Wick: Chapter 4 | $190M DOM | $410M WW 15. Blue Beetle | $170M DOM | $385M WW 16. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | $165M DOM | $360M WW 17. Barbie | $120M DOM | $335M WW 18. Meg 2: The Trench | $130M DOM | $330M WW 19. Shazam! Fury of the Gods | $120M DOM | $285M WW 20. Wish | $140M DOM | $270M WW 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 One more prediction for 2023 - there are only two movies that have owned the opening weekend record for over 4 years: Sam Raimi's Spider-Man (4 years, 2 months and 4 days - broken by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest in July 2006) and The Lost World: Jurassic Park (4 years, 5 months and 24 days - broken by the 1st Harry Potter film in November 2001). Avengers: Endgame will become the longest-reigning opening weekend champion of all time after October 22, 2023. There's no chance anything will surpass its $357.1m, not in a few years (maybe in this decade). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Juby said: One more prediction for 2023 - there are only two movies that have owned the opening weekend record for over 4 years: Sam Raimi's Spider-Man (4 years, 2 months and 4 days - broken by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest in July 2006) and The Lost World: Jurassic Park (4 years, 5 months and 24 days - broken by the 1st Harry Potter film in November 2001). Avengers: Endgame will become the longest-reigning opening weekend champion of all time after October 22, 2023. There's no chance anything will surpass its $357.1m, not in a few years (maybe in this decade). The first film that has any chance (i.e literally any) to beat Endgames opening is Kang Dynasty. Assuming it holds its release date that’s just over 6 years. I don’t thing KD will have enough power to do it though (I can see anywhere from 240-300), so the next and best shot is Secret Wars which will be 7 years after Endgame. If Secret Wars can’t do it, there’s nothing on the current horizon that will be able to do it very well may hold on for more than a decade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said: The first film that has any chance (i.e literally any) to beat Endgames opening is Kang Dynasty. Assuming it holds its release date that’s just over 6 years. I don’t thing KD will have enough power to do it though (I can see anywhere from 240-300), so the next and best shot is Secret Wars which will be 7 years after Endgame. If Secret Wars can’t do it, there’s nothing on the current horizon that will be able to do it very well may hold on for more than a decade. Tbh I’m thinking an OW more along the lines of 190m-230m for Kang. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, YM! said: Tbh I’m thinking an OW more along the lines of 190m-230m for Kang. I can’t see a 2025 Avengers movie opening just 5% above a 2022 Black Panther movie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 After the Phase Four films and with the current Avengers members (No Iron Man, not the original Captain America, no Black Widow) I don't see next Avengers films OW over Infinity War's $257.7m. MCU has to do something great in the next two years to appeal audience as they did in 2017-2019. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wild Eric Posted December 28, 2022 Author Share Posted December 28, 2022 https://deadline.com/2022/12/box-office-2023-prediction-1235205995/ Quote The aftermath of Covid’s 2020-21 closure of cinemas will continue to be felt in 2023 as the domestic box office claws its way back to what many sources believe is an $8 billion-$9 billion result. On the high end, it’s a 22% jump from what Comscore is expecting 2022 to final at, that being $7.4B. This year’s domestic box office also reps a 72% surge over 2021’s $4.3 billion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WittyUsername Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 I guess we better hope that Oppenheimer does well, otherwise there may be no hope for non-IP adult tentpoles on the big screen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 Domestic Only 1. Super Mario Brothers - $430 million 2. GOTG 3 - $420 million 3. The Little Mermaid - $365 million 4. Indiana Jones - $320 million 5. Mission Impossible - $275 million 6. Spider-Verse - $270 million 7 - Aquaman - $250 million 8. Barbie - $230 million 9. Flash - $230 million 10. Marvels - $225 million 11. Ant-Man - $215 million 12. John Wick - $200 million 13. Fast X - $180 million 14. Wonka - $180 million 15. Dune II - $160 million Other biggies - $145 million for both Creed and Oppenheimer, $140 for Haunted Mansion, Transformers does about $120, some horror breakout does $125, Elemental and Hunger Games flop. Deep af but weak at the top year incoming. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWR Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 I can't see Super Mario Bros crossing $400M+ DOM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 So trying this. My predictions aren´t really that thought out, so if you see something that seems ridiciolus don´t be shy. Especially on the DOM/Overseas split. 1. MI7 $1.04B ($400 dom) 2. Mario $934M ($350 dom) 3. Aquaman $920M ($400 dom) 4. GotG $810M ($382 dom) 5. Autobots $789M ($290M dom) 6. Flash $750M ($240 dom) 7. Marvels $740M ($340 dom) 8. Fast X $720 ($189 dom) 9. Indy $650M ($205 (dom) 10. Ant-Man $557M ($301 dom) 11. Dune part 2 $550M ($150 (Dom) 12. Oppenheimer $490M ($100 dom) 13. Shazam $450M ($175 dom) 14. Blue Beetle $390M ($140 dom) 15. John Wick 4 $350M ($120M dom) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 minute ago, thajdikt said: So trying this. My predictions aren´t really that thought out, so if you see something that seems ridiciolus don´t be shy. Especially on the DOM/Overseas split. 1. MI7 $1.04B ($400 dom) 2. Mario $934M ($350 dom) 3. Aquaman $920M ($400 dom) 4. GotG $810M ($382 dom) 5. Autobots $789M ($290M dom) 6. Flash $750M ($240 dom) 7. Marvels $740M ($340 dom) 8. Fast X $720 ($189 dom) 9. Indy $650M ($205 (dom) 10. Ant-Man $557M ($301 dom) 11. Dune part 2 $550M ($150 (Dom) 12. Oppenheimer $490M ($100 dom) 13. Shazam $450M ($175 dom) 14. Blue Beetle $390M ($140 dom) 15. John Wick 4 $350M ($120M dom) Are these all with China or without? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Just now, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said: Are these all with China or without? Without China Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, thajdikt said: Without China These are all generally fine. Off the top of my head I'd probably knock 200M off the Flash. Rise of the Beast seems pretty high also, given the last one made $130M DOM and $465M WW. I think MI7 is being over-predicted by a lot of people but I understand why. Indy seems pretty low DOM. That would be over 100M less than the last one brought in 15 years ago. But yea, nothing you predicted is impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Based on OS results so far, M3GAN could turn out into a genuine January horror hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 What are your locks for $100 M? 2022 currently has 18. The 19th and maybe the final one is PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH. 2019 had 29 while 2018 had 35. FEB ■ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MAR ■ Shazam! Fury of the Gods ■ John Wick IV APR ■ The Super Mario Bros. Movie MAY ■ Guardians of the Galaxy III ■ Fast X ■ The Little Mermaid JUN ■ Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse ■ Transformers: Rise of the Beasts ■ The Flash ■ Elemental ■ Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny JUL ■ Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning I ■ Barbie ■ Oppenheimer ■ The Marvels AUG ■ Blue Beetle NOV ■ Dune II ■ The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes DEC ■ Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom POSSIBILITIES M3gan Creed 65 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Insidious V The Meg: The Trench The Equalizer III The Nun II Kraven the Hunter Trolls III Wish Wonka Untitled Ghostbuster Sequel Migration I'm actually not sure about ELEMENTAL. That's more of a hope than a prediction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 50 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said: These are all generally fine. Off the top of my head I'd probably knock 200M off the Flash. Rise of the Beast seems pretty high also, given the last one made $130M DOM and $465M WW. I think MI7 is being over-predicted by a lot of people but I understand why. Indy seems pretty low DOM. That would be over 100M less than the last one brought in 15 years ago. But yea, nothing you predicted is impossible. Yeah all of those you mentioned is those I was most torn apart. IDK why but have a feeling that Transformers will do really well. Will be interesting to see! Think 2023 will be a fun year for us in here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 (edited) So I was looking at the 2022 predictions thread earlier and noticing how many of the movies predicted for the top box office didn't even release. Now I'm curious. Of all the big budget movies set to release in 2023, which one do you think is the most likely to be delayed? You know, there's always at least one. Edited December 30, 2022 by poweranimals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, poweranimals said: So I was looking at the 2022 predictions thread earlier and noticing how many of the movies predicted for the top box office didn't even release. Now I'm curious. Of all the big budget movies set to release in 2023, which one do you think is the most likely to be delayed? You know, there's always at least one. I don't think any. It seems like studios are finally on schedule, so to speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 If there will be some moving, it will still mostly be within the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...