2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[stripe]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'd say move Dune to Christmas if Aquaman somehow misses that date (Part One would've opened in December 2020 if not for COVID) but WB isn't going to release two Chalamet-led aspiring blockbusters (Wonka being the other) so close to each other. The fourth quarter schedule is bound to see a shake up as soon as studios begin to realize how barren it is for the most part, especially now that The Marvels left the summer for the holidays.

Dune would be a great addition to December. I don't have much faith in Wonka BO potential

[filmlover]

Quote

Aron also gave an outlook on the 2023 box office. While he acknowledged that full recovery to pre-pandemic norms won’t come until 2024 or 2025 at the earliest, as many as 75 percent more movies will hit screens in 2023. He said he believes as many as 30 movies this year could top $100 million at the domestic box office.

Adam Aron Couldn’t Stop Talking About Popcorn on AMC Q4 Earnings Call | IndieWire

[Grebacio]

22 hours ago, Maggie said:

The numbers did their predictions for the top movies of 2023

 

The only resoanble numbers IMO are Marvels and Spidey

[Flip]

10 hours ago, Grebacio said:

The only resoanble numbers IMO are Marvels and Spidey

I wanna know how they're getting these numbers lmao

[Flip]

On 1/1/2023 at 11:44 AM, Flip said:

1. GOTG 3 - (460)

2. Aquaman 2 - (400)

3. Indiana Jones 5 (380) 

4. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning (380)

5. Spider Man: Across the Spider-Verse (318)

6. Ant-Man and the Wasp - Quantumania (271)

7. The Little Mermaid (269)

8. Super Mario Bros (268)

9. The Marvels (267)

10. Flash (260)

11. Dune 2 (229)

12. John Wick 4 (213)

13. Meg 2 (192)

14. Barbie (189)

15. Ghostbusters 2 (185)

16. Oppenheimer (175)

17. Fast X (168)

18. Shazam 2 (165)

19. Creed III (163)

20. Wonka (158)

21. Legally Blonde 3 (147)

22. Wish (147)

23. Blue Beetle (145)

24. Elemental (141)

25. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (140)

26. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (133)

27. Hunger Games: Ballad of the Songbirds (130)

28. Haunted Mansion (125)

29. The Nun 2 (118)

30. Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (110)

 

 

 

 

Updates for the films that haven't released yet:

 

1. GOTG 3 - (470)

2. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning (380)

3. The Flash (395)

4. Indiana Jones 5 (380) 

5. Spider Man: Across the Spider-Verse (310)

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (290)

7. The Little Mermaid (269)

8. Super Mario Bros (268)

9. The Marvels (267)

10. Dune 2 (202)

11. Barbie (197)

12. John Wick 4 (190)

13. Fast X (182)

14. Oppenheimer (163)

15. Meg 2 (155)

16. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (154)

17. Wonka (153)

18. Hunger Games: Ballad of the Songbirds (148)

19. Wish (147)

20. Creed III (142)

21. Elemental (141)

22. Blue Beetle (130)

23. Scream VI (129)

24. The Nun 2 (116)

25. Shazam 2 (106)

26. Kraven the Hunter (102)

27. Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (105)

28. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (100)

29. Dungeons and Dragons (99) 

30. Haunted Mansion (88)

 

That would make 28 100m grossers, down from the intial 30, but I did take Legally Blonde and Ghostbusters off the list since they probably won't release this year.

 

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, Flip said:

I did take Ghostbusters off the list since they probably won't release this year.

 

Why not?

[stripe]

On 2/27/2023 at 2:34 PM, stripe said:

 

Two days to close February and the cumulative gross is at around 480M, so 50M under my predictions. Some films slightly underperformed (AMQ, MMLD, Knock at the Cabin) and not many good surprises.
Still, over February 2022.

 

Let's predict March. I will try to be conservative.

 

Openers (around 395M)
Creed 3: 90M

Demos Slayer: 15M

Operation Fortune: 10M

Scream 6: 90M

65: 30M

Champions: 15M

Shazam!: 70M

John Wick 4: 55M

Dungeons & Dragons: 10M

Good Person: 5M

Other openers: 15M

 

Holdovers (around 160M)

AMQ: 50M

Cocaine Bear: 35M

Jesus Revolution: 40M

Avatar 2: 10M

Puss in Boots 2: 10M

Rest: 15M

 

Cumulative gross for March: 550M. A bit under 589M grossed in March 2022, when The Batman exploded.

 

Just a few days later I would increase numbers for Creed (120M) and John Wick (80M). Definitely, March is looking to gross more than 600M now.

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Why not?

No casting or filming news less than 9 months away from release. I'm guessing it ends up taking the date of the Karate Kid movie for June 2024 since there's been no news about that one either.

[Juby]

On 3/1/2023 at 8:20 PM, Maggie said:

The numbers did their predictions for the top movies of 2023

 

The worst box office prediction strikes back!  

 

The Marvels would be lucky to beat Ant-Man's 3 numbers, M:I-7 is def too low as many other titles.

 

[Maggie]

12 hours ago, Juby said:

The worst box office prediction strikes back!  

 

The Marvels would be lucky to beat Ant-Man's 3 numbers

 

I seriously doubt The marvels will bomb that hard. The first one did very well. I think this one can do about 300M.

 

Anyway, Guardians 3 will probably be the highest grossing Marvel movie this year

[kayumanggi]

On 3/2/2023 at 3:18 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Feb 24 - 26 / $93,701,450

2022 / Feb 25 - 27 / $60,906,460

 

WINS

2023: 7 weekends

2022: 1 weekend

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 03 - 05 / $117,151,768

2022 / Mar 04 - 06 / $166,066,890

 

WINS

2023: 7 weekends

2022: 2 weekends

[kayumanggi]

On 3/2/2023 at 3:26 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $168.8 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $094.6 M | M3GAN

03 | $036.7 M | 80 FOR BRADY

04 | $034.0 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

05 | $032.1 M | PLANE

 

06 | $031.5 M | MISSING

07 | $024.9 M | COCAINE BEAR

08 | $023.3 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

09 | $017.3 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

10 | $017.2 M | PATHAAN

 

11 | $014.5 M | TITANIC

12 | $009.0 M | HOUSE PARTY

13 | $008.1 M | BTS: YET TO COME IN CINEMAS

14 | $005.5 M | THE CHOSEN SEASON III FINALE

15 | $005.1 M | INFINITY POOL

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

4 - OTHERS

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $188.0 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $094.9 M | M3GAN

03 | $062.7 M | CREED III

04 | $042.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

05 | $038.5 M | 80 FOR BRADY

 

06 | $035.1 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

07 | $032.2 M | MISSING

08 | $032.1 M | PLANE

09 | $031.2 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

10 | $025.4 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

 

11 | $017.3 M | PATHAAN

12 | $015.0 M | TITANIC

13 | $010.1 M | DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - TO THE SWORDSMITH VILLAGE

14 | $009.0 M | HOUSE PARTY

15 | $008.1 M | BTS: YET TO COME IN CINEMAS

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

4 - OTHERS

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

On 3/9/2023 at 6:03 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $188.0 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $094.9 M | M3GAN

03 | $062.7 M | CREED III

04 | $042.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

05 | $038.5 M | 80 FOR BRADY

 

06 | $035.1 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

07 | $032.2 M | MISSING

08 | $032.1 M | PLANE

09 | $031.2 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

10 | $025.4 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

 

11 | $017.3 M | PATHAAN

12 | $015.0 M | TITANIC

13 | $010.1 M | DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - TO THE SWORDSMITH VILLAGE

14 | $009.0 M | HOUSE PARTY

15 | $008.1 M | BTS: YET TO COME IN CINEMAS

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

4 - OTHERS

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $198.1 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $101.4 M | CREED III

03 | $095.0 M | M3GAN

04 | $051.7 M | COCAINE BEAR

05 | $044.4 M | SCREAM VI

 

06 | $039.4 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

07 | $039.1 M | 80 FOR BRADY

08 | $035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

09 | $032.4 M | MISSING

10 | $032.1 M | PLANE

 

11 | $025.9 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

12 | $017.3 M | PATHAAN

13 | $015.0 M | TITANIC

14 | $012.3 M | 65

15 | $010.1 M | DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - TO THE SWORDSMITH VILLAGE

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

2 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

3 - OTHERS

[kayumanggi]

On 3/9/2023 at 5:49 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 03 - 05 / $117,151,768

2022 / Mar 04 - 06 / $166,066,890

 

WINS

2023: 7 weekends

2022: 2 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 10 - 12 / $116,301,900

2022 / Mar 11 - 13 / $101,939,737

 

WINS

2023: 8 weekends

2022: 2 weekends

[stripe]

On 3/14/2023 at 8:06 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 10 - 12 / $116,301,900

2022 / Mar 11 - 13 / $101,939,737

 

WINS

2023: 8 weekends

2022: 2 weekends

 

Another 2023 win this last weekend

 

I can't see 2022 winning again until 1st weekend of May.

 

 

[kayumanggi]

On 3/14/2023 at 3:06 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 10 - 12 / $116,301,900

2022 / Mar 11 - 13 / $101,939,737

 

WINS

2023: 8 weekends

2022: 2 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 17 - 19 / $91,416,064

2022 / Mar 18 - 20 / $83,455,041

 

WINS

2023: 9 weekends

2022: 2 weekends

[kayumanggi]

On 3/14/2023 at 3:01 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $198.1 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $101.4 M | CREED III

03 | $095.0 M | M3GAN

04 | $051.7 M | COCAINE BEAR

05 | $044.4 M | SCREAM VI

 

06 | $039.4 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

07 | $039.1 M | 80 FOR BRADY

08 | $035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

09 | $032.4 M | MISSING

10 | $032.1 M | PLANE

 

11 | $025.9 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

12 | $017.3 M | PATHAAN

13 | $015.0 M | TITANIC

14 | $012.3 M | 65

15 | $010.1 M | DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - TO THE SWORDSMITH VILLAGE

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

2 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

3 - OTHERS

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $206.8 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $130.4 M | CREED III

03 | $095.0 M | M3GAN

04 | $079.1 M | SCREAM VI

05 | $059.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

 

06 | $046.4 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

07 | $039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

08 | $035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

09 | $034.2 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

10 | $032.5 M | MISSING

 

11 | $032.1 M | PLANE

12 | $026.0 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

13 | $023.7 M | 65

14 | $017.4 M | PATHAAN

15 | $015.0 M | TITANIC

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

2 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

[poweranimals]

Is Campea right? Or is he wrong like usual?

 

 

[thajdikt]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

Is Campea right? Or is he wrong like usual?

 

 

Elemental limited release?