2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Maggie]

The Flash has not officially arrived on tracking yet, BOP is doing forecasts. But the movie will be big, no question about it

[kayumanggi]

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

I'm not sure what "tracking" there can really be before tickets are even on sale. BOP long range forecasts are just that, forecasts. They can change real quick if actual tracking doesn't deliver when tickets go on sale. So I wouldn't rely on them too much this far out in the game.

 

I think Flash will do well, by the way, maybe even does hit that range. Just saying.

 

I believe it will hit that range.

[JustLurking]

23 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I believe it will hit that range.

I'm not necessarily saying it won't. It could. Just that the long range forecasts don't really have much hard data going into them, so watch out on relying on them too much. The first truly reliable indications on how this does will ony come when tickets go on sale.

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, JustLurking said:

They can change real quick if actual tracking doesn't deliver when tickets go on sale.

I think we have posted multiple times that actual industry tracking do not rely on ticket sales. They go with Awareness/Definite Interest/First Choice metrics and use that to hone in on OW based on comps with similar movies. Of course close to release, Studio and Trade do update based on how things evolve including ticket sales. 

That said ticket sales are absolute truth. Tracking can be off. 

[kayumanggi]

On 5/20/2023 at 10:28 PM, JustLurking said:

I'm not necessarily saying it won't. It could. Just that the long range forecasts don't really have much hard data going into them, so watch out on relying on them too much. The first truly reliable indications on how this does will ony come when tickets go on sale.

 

I'm not saying I rely on them too much. I am also aware that tracking can be off. We have seen that many times in the tracking thread. It's just my opinion that it will hit that mark.

[stripe]

Tentpoles are doing fine this May, but it's really sad to see everything else bombing. Hipnotic, Book Club... 

Right now, May has grossed close to 500M, but I am unsure the month will reach 800M

[Pinacolada]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

Tentpoles are doing fine this May, but it's really sad to see everything else bombing. Hipnotic, Book Club... 

Right now, May has grossed close to 500M, but I am unsure the month will reach 800M

Hypnotic was an obvious DOA, but yeah Book Club 2s sucky performance SUCKS.... That absolutely needs to be doing better

[filmlover]

Studios really missed the boat on providing appealing product for Mother's Day this year (as they usually seem to do). The Little Mermaid would've crushed it on that weekend had it and Guardians switched places. Stuff like Book Club 2 and Love Again weren't it.

[stripe]

28 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Studios really missed the boat on providing appealing product for Mother's Day this year (as they usually seem to do). The Little Mermaid would've crushed it on that weekend had it and Guardians switched places. Stuff like Book Club 2 and Love Again weren't it.

 

It's not just about quality, because we have seen recently disappointing runs forThe Covenant and Are you there, God?

Before Covid, those two, Book Club 2 and Love Again would have been more succesful. To fully recover, we need higher grosses for these kind of movies.

 

Let's see what will happen with Kandahar and About My Father, but it doesn't look great for any of them.

Edited May 22, 2023 by stripe

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Before Covid Book Club 2 and Love Again would have been more succesful. To fully recover, we need higher grosses for these kind of movies 

Love Again looked so bad (and apparently was, given that the studio hid it from critics) that it wouldn't have done well anywhere. As for Book Club 2, it had to deal with 5 years being too long of a wait for a sequel to a definite one-off that wasn't that well-regarded to begin with + being beaten to the punch by 80 for Brady (which basically had the same "four female screen legends including Jane Fonda" concept that made this appear redundant) just three months earlier.

Edited May 22, 2023 by filmlover

[kayumanggi]

On 5/19/2023 at 12:26 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / May 12 - May 14 / $100,365,730

2022 / May 13 - May 15 / $91,763,058

 

WINS

2023: 16 weekends

2022: 03 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / May 19 - May 21 / $121,758,165

2022 / May 20 - May 22 / $75,659,163

 

WINS

2023: 17 weekends

2022: 03 weekends

[kayumanggi]

2023 has crossed $3 billion, by the way.

[kayumanggi]

On 5/19/2023 at 12:35 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 538.6M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 230.8M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 214.2M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

04 | 183.6M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

05 | 156.2M | CREED III

 

06 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

07 | 095.0M | M3GAN

08 | 092.4M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

09 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

10 | 061.4M | EVIL DEAD RISE

 

11 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

12 | 052.1M | JESUS REVOLUTION

13 | 051.9M | AIR

14 | 039.3M | 80 FOR BRADY

15 | 035.4M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

---

 

2 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

0 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

03 | 200M movies

06 | 100M movies

13 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 549.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 267.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 214.4M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

04 | 185.3M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

05 | 156.2M | CREED III

 

06 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

07 | 095.0M | M3GAN

08 | 092.9M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

09 | 067.0M | FAST X

10 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

 

11 | 064.2M | EVIL DEAD RISE

12 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

13 | 052.3M | AIR

14 | 052.1M | JESUS REVOLUTION

15 | 039.3M | 80 FOR BRADY

 

---

 

2 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

0 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

03 | 200M movies

06 | 100M movies

14 | 050M movies

[poweranimals]

26 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 549.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 267.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 214.4M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

04 | 185.3M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

05 | 156.2M | CREED III

 

06 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

07 | 095.0M | M3GAN

08 | 092.9M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

09 | 067.0M | FAST X

10 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

 

11 | 064.2M | EVIL DEAD RISE

12 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

13 | 052.3M | AIR

14 | 052.1M | JESUS REVOLUTION

15 | 039.3M | 80 FOR BRADY

 

---

 

2 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

0 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

03 | 200M movies

06 | 100M movies

14 | 050M movies

Does these not include the weekend numbers?

[kayumanggi]

36 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Does these not include the weekend numbers?

 

Not yet. That's for the last weekend. Will update again once actuals are in.

[rehpyc]

Domestic through Thursday

 

# of titles are per bucket and not cumulative (i.e. those in the 100-200M bucket don't include titles from the prior buckets). <50M titles excluded.

 

 

Grosses start w/ the 1st Friday per year.

 

Edited May 29, 2023 by rehpyc

[stripe]

On 5/2/2023 at 11:47 AM, stripe said:

 

Time to recap my April predictions and look at May schedule

 

Very happy to see another month overperforming my predictions thanks to SMB well over my conservative 250M and Air confirming there is room for this kind of films. I was also quite off with Renfield, and Air. In the end, April grossed 900M, reaching prepandemic levels and easily outgrossing 2022’s 571M.

Unfortunately, some holdovers weren’t as strong as I hoped, especially D&D.

 

Looking at May, conservative mood.

Openers (700M)

Guardians of the Galaxy 3: 300M

Love Again: 10M

Book Club 2: 30M

Fool’s Paradise: 10M

Hypnotic: 20M

Knights of the Zodiac: 10M

Fast X: 150M

About my Father: 15M

Kandahar: 10M

Little Mermaid: 130M

Rest: 20M

 

Holdovers (130M)

Mario Bros: 80M

Evil Dead Rises: 15M

Margaret: 15M

Rest: 20M

 

So cumulative gross for May: 830M, pretty close to last year’s 785M and a bit under prepandemic levels. Anyways, I have a feeling it can be a better figure: Guardians can gross more (tracking is slowly improving) and a few films can overperform (looking at Book Club, Hypnotic, Love Again, and About my father).

800M – standard

850M – solid

900M – great

 

Time for May's recap and June's forecast
May closed around 60M under my predicted cumulative gross. LOL at my predictions besides tentpoles. We need more middle ground success stories! In the end, May'23 closed just behind May'22.

June's predictions:

Openers (800M)

Across the Spiderverse: 300M

Boogeyman: 40M

Transformers: 80M

Asteroid City: 10M

Blackening: 20M

Elemental: 90M

Flash: 180M

No Hard Feelings: 35M

Indiana Jones 5: 30M

Ruby Gillman: 5M

Rest: 10M

 

Holdovers (230M)

TLM: 120M

Guardians: 45M

FastX: 35M

Rest: 30M

 

June Cumulative gross: 1,030M, slightly over last year's (970M). We could see higher numbers for Spiderverse, Elemental, Flash, No Hard Feelings... 

[WorkingonaName]

On 5/19/2023 at 1:25 PM, WorkingonaName said:

Update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

2. The Flash: $1B

3. The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $850M

4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 2: $850M

5. Barbie: $750M

6. Fast X: $750M

7. Dune 2: $750M

8. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $700M

9. Indiana Jones and the dial of destiny: $700M 

10. Across The Spider-verse: $650M

 

update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

2. Barbie: $1B

3. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $1B

4. The Flash: $850M

5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 2: $850M

6. Across the Spider-verse: $750M

7. Fast X: $750M

8. How do you live?: $700M

9. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $700M

10. Dune 2: $700M

11. Indiana Jones and The Dial Of Desinty: $700M

12. The Marvels": $650M

13. The Meg 2: $600M

14. The Little Mermaid: $550M

15. Wonka: $500M

16. Ant-man and the wasp quantomania: $450M

17. John Wick 4: $450M

18. Five Nights at Freddy's: $400M

19. Hunger Games: $350M

20. killers of the flower moon: $300M

[poweranimals]

6 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

 

update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

2. Barbie: $1B

3. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $1B

4. The Flash: $850M

5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 2: $850M

6. Across the Spider-verse: $750M

7. Fast X: $750M

8. How do you live?: $700M

9. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $700M

10. Dune 2: $700M

11. Indiana Jones and The Dial Of Desinty: $700M

12. The Marvels": $650M

13. The Meg 2: $600M

14. The Little Mermaid: $550M

15. Wonka: $500M

16. Ant-man and the wasp quantomania: $450M

17. John Wick 4: $450M

18. Five Nights at Freddy's: $400M

19. Hunger Games: $350M

20. killers of the flower moon: $300M

There's no way that Barbie crosses a billion. 

[kayumanggi]

On 5/29/2023 at 2:39 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / May 19 - May 21 / $121,758,165

2022 / May 20 - May 22 / $75,659,163

 

WINS

2023: 17 weekends

2022: 03 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / May 26 - May 28 / $163,028,299

2022 / May 27- May 29 / $177,208,035

 

2023 / May 26 - May 29 / $203,634,667

2022 / May 27 - May 30 / $223,364,859

 

WINS

2023: 17 weekends

2022: 04 weekends