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Eric Atreides

2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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On 5/19/2022 at 10:10 AM, jedijake said:

Is there even an MCU film scheduled for November 2023?

 

Blade? Would that be made in time? Fantastic Four? Shang Chi 2? Maybe whatever they were planning for November can be pushed to December?

I'm sure it'll be Blade. Filming recently started on it. 

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1 minute ago, B D Joe said:

After seeing Ms. Marvel, The Marvels will be huge.  Fighting with The Little Mermaid to win the year.

Have they released streaming numbers yet? .

Besides that , something being popular on streaming doesn't mean it translates that success to the movies.

 

Marvel's will be huge depending on how good the marketing and the movie is and it will have little to do with this show.

 

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December is looking really empty right now. Ignoring Rogue Squadron (which will obviously be removed eventually), the biggest movie set to come out on paper is...Wonka? The month needs a stronger anchor. Moving Oppenheimer to the holidays would be a pretty good idea.

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9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

December is looking really empty right now. Ignoring Rogue Squadron (which will obviously be removed eventually), the biggest movie set to come out on paper is...Wonka? The month needs a stronger anchor. Moving Oppenheimer to the holidays would be a pretty good idea.

Avatar 3 will fit nicely. 

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I can see Mission Impossible Dead Reackoning grossing close to 900M worldwide. It will probably not pass 300 DOM, but if it delivers in a way the trailer promises - and i have little doubt it will - OS audiences will eat it up.

 

M:I has been on an upward trend since Ghost Protocol and Top Guns success can only help when it comes to Tom Cruises drawing power.

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6 hours ago, filmlover said:

December is looking really empty right now. Ignoring Rogue Squadron (which will obviously be removed eventually), the biggest movie set to come out on paper is...Wonka? The month needs a stronger anchor. Moving Oppenheimer to the holidays would be a pretty good idea.

Any of Dune 2, Blade or Indiana Jones 5 would work there I think. But isn't there a Taika Waititi Star Wars movie coming, is that making it to next Dec?

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2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Any of Dune 2, Blade or Indiana Jones 5 would work there I think. But isn't there a Taika Waititi Star Wars movie coming, is that making it to next Dec?

According to him, he's still writing it, meaning there would have to be one heck of a fast turn around for it to hit screens 18 months from now.

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I'm still not sure why Indiana Jones 5 hasn't moved to Christmas tbh. It seems like the perfect fit for the big 4-quad holiday release and it makes the summer a little bit lighter, which I feel is kind of needed at this moment.

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6 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

I'm still not sure why Indiana Jones 5 hasn't moved to Christmas tbh. It seems like the perfect fit for the big 4-quad holiday release and it makes the summer a little bit lighter, which I feel is kind of needed at this moment.

Probably because it was supposed to be out this year originally. Filming concluded in February.

 

Although the overcluttered state of Summer 2023 at the moment reminds me of when that one poster kept beating the "COVID is gonna cause studios to cut back on their tentpoles" drum or whatever. Apparently not, given that the mid-range movie is largely absent from multiplexes this year, the first full-fledged summer movie season in three years.

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15 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

I'm still not sure why Indiana Jones 5 hasn't moved to Christmas tbh. It seems like the perfect fit for the big 4-quad holiday release and it makes the summer a little bit lighter, which I feel is kind of needed at this moment.

Indy would be the perfect movie for the Christmas release. Yeah it was delayed like 5 times, but it will bank so much more money during the holidays that it would in June.

 

But Wonda could do very well. They tend to play the original WWandCF during holiday times.

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I honestly don't get rather large predictions for Wonka. Feels like a movie that could easily go either way (did anyone really want to know the origin story of Willy Wonka, the Oompa Loompas, etc.). Charlie and the Chocolate Factory was such a smash in 2005 because it had Depp when he was basking in the afterglow of the first Pirates. If it makes anywhere even close to what that did it'll be lucky.

Edited by filmlover
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38 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I honestly don't get rather large predictions for Wonka. Feels like a movie that could easily go either way (did anyone really want to know the origin story of Willy Wonka, the Oompa Loompas, etc.). Charlie and the Chocolate Factory was such a smash in 2005 because it had Depp when he was basking in the afterglow of the first Pirates. If it makes anywhere even close to what that did it'll be lucky.

I don't think Mary Poppins Returns (171m) numbers are out of range which is kindaaa close to Charlie (206.4m).

 

It's Willy Wonka. Chalamet is famous. It'll probably have decent reviews given who directed. And it's a holiday musical. Yeah, it's a pointless origin movie but I wouldn't write it off being a big hit

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On 6/4/2022 at 9:37 PM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Broad predictions:

 

Marvel:

Kraven under Morbius (73m). Madame Web under Kraven. Guardians 3 over 410. The Marvels under Captain Marvel (426m). Ant-Man at 250. 

 

DC:

Aquaman 2 under the first (335m). The Flash under Justice League (229m). Blue Beetle under 100m.

 

Disney:

-Haunted Mansion under 100m

-Little Mermaid under 500m but over 400m

-Transformers under Bumblebee (127m)

-Indy 5 under 400m

 

Others:

-Fast X under F9 and Hobbs/Shaw (173m)

-Oppenheimer under Dunkirk (190m) and Interstellar (188m)

-Mission Impossible over 250 but under 300m

-Dune over 200m

-Hunger Games final domestic total under the first Hunger Games opening weekend (152)

-Wonka over 300m

 

Some of the predictions seem a little too pessimistic.

 

Kraven - under 100m

Madame web -under 100m

Marvel's - 390m

GOTG 3 - 450m

Quantumania - 275-300m

 

Flash - 250m. 

Aquaman -315m

Blue nettle - 150m

 

Little mermaid -450m

Indiana jones - 350M

 

Transformers  -150-200m

Dungeons and dragons - 80-150m

John wick - 150M+

MI7 - 275-300m

Fast x - 180-200m

Oppenheimer -150m

Super mario - 250m

Across the spidervers  -275m

 

Dune. - 225m

wonka - 180m

 

Edited by Liiviig 1998
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1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Puss in boots - 150m+

 

Isn't it this year?

 

My first raw forecast for 2023:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 - $450m

Indiana Jones 5 - $375m ($300-400m range)

The Marvels - $300m

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $290m

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1 - $280m ($250-310m range)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $270m

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $250m

The Flash - $250m

Dune: Part Two - $215m

John Wick: Chapter 4 - $200m

Wonka - $180m

Oppenheimer - $175m

Fast X = $165m

Transformers: Rise of the Beats - $150m

Blue Beetle = $150m

 

I know there'll be also TLM, Mario film, Sony-verse movies, and some Disney and Pixar animations, but I don't have anything for them yet. I'll update my list at the end of December.

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10 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Some of the predictions seem a little too pessimistic.

 

Kraven - under 100m

Madame web -under 100m

Marvel's - 390m

GOTG 3 - 450m

Quantumania - 275-300m

 

Flash - 250m. 

Aquaman -315m

Blue nettle - 150m

 

Little mermaid -450m

Indiana jones - 350M

 

Transformers  -150-200m

Dungeons and dragons - 80-150m

John wick - 150M+

MI7 - 275-300m

Fast x - 180-200m

Oppenheimer -150m

Super mario - 250m

Across the spidervers  -275m

 

Dune. - 225m

wonka - 180m

 

I think they're reasonable. My gut feeling for Madame Web/Kraven is Marvel struggling to sell outside of MCU. Deadpool was a big novelty event showcasing its comedy. I can be wrong about Blue Beetle and Flash but I'll always take the lower on DC. I don't see much growth in John Wick, Fast X will be coming off 2 mixed received additions and still hasn't brought back Rock (or seemingly Statham) despite being the finale. I think Oppenheimer is going to be Nolan's most challenging movie and July has flashier movies like Mission Impossible, Barbie, Marvels

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