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Eric Atreides

2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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Just now, ZurgXXR said:


I would be absolutely stunned if it is the biggest. I don’t think it’ll even be top 10.

It’s only competition in SpiderVerse and if you asked me which is more likely to go sub 200m, I’d say SpiderVerse in a heartbeat as it faces much more scarier competition. Sure Pikachu was a failure but also it opened right after Endgame and before Aladdin, and Illumination is a trillion times better at selling family movies than WB ever could be. 

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On 6/14/2022 at 9:27 AM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think they're reasonable. My gut feeling for Madame Web/Kraven is Marvel struggling to sell outside of MCU. Deadpool was a big novelty event showcasing its comedy. I can be wrong about Blue Beetle and Flash but I'll always take the lower on DC. I don't see much growth in John Wick, Fast X will be coming off 2 mixed received additions and still hasn't brought back Rock (or seemingly Statham) despite being the finale. I think Oppenheimer is going to be Nolan's most challenging movie and July has flashier movies like Mission Impossible, Barbie, Marvels

WB better play up the Latino angle with Blue Beetle, if they do so then it’ll break out! 1/5 of the USA population is Latino, yet we barley appear in Hollywood films. Talk about being underserved and underrepresented! 
 

Blue Beetle has strong family ties too so that’ll definitely appeal to Latinos (ala Coco). 

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MCU predictions-

1. Ant-man & the wasp: Quantumania- $320-380M

Reason- Kang will be in it & it is directly connected to Loki the most watched show on D+

2. GOTG3- $420-500M

3. The Marvels- $150M-350M

Reason- If the current low interest in lead character & movie continue then movie could go as low as $150M & if interest in the character & movie increases then it could go as high as $350M, I don't think it would touch Captain Marvel numbers

4. Blade- $220M-340M

Edited by Factcheck
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With the underperformance of Lightyear, i feel pretty confident Across the Spider Verse at best will do just about the same as ITSV or a slightly increase domestically.

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I have a question. Sorry for any kind of ignorance on my part. 

 

Looking at the 2023 schedule... it looks ridiculously massive. Like...blockbuster after blockbuster. Specially from May on. 

 

Is there audiences for all these huge movies so close to each other? I feel like we could see some big casualties from this. 

 

Also. Does the theater industry have enough screens for this kind of demand? I have a feeling that theaters should maybe invest on more screens? Specially premium ones. And I think now would be a great time to invest solely looking and thinking about 2023.

 

I don't know if one really has to do with the other...but I think there's a need for more screens to have more showtimes and space for every movie coming one after another. Does this make sense? 

 

Edited by Juan Caballo
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I'm probably going to regret doing this so early but I'm bored so...

 

1. Guardians of the Galaxy vol 3

2. Indiana Jones 5

3. Ant Man 3: Quantimania

4. Aquaman 2

5. Mission Impossible

6. The Marvels

7. Flash

8. Fast 10

9. Dune, Part 2

10. Wonka

 

Note: I left out Star Wars and the Untitled Marvel Movie for now since we have no confirmation on what's actually being released. Edit: Also, these predictions are domestic.

Edited by poweranimals
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On 6/17/2022 at 11:57 AM, YourMother said:

With the underperformance of Lightyear, i feel pretty confident Across the Spider Verse at best will do just about the same as ITSV or a slightly increase domestically.

 

I don't know about that. I don't think Lightyears underperformance can't be reasoned simply because families aren't taking their kids to the movies anymore. there hasn't been enough tentpole animations to gage that, besides Sing 2 did over $160m in Dec-Jan when the pandemic was at one of it's worst (So they say) and lightyear had some negative PR going in as it was and was kind of a wild card. people's viewing habit's have changed, though, they need to stop releasing $150m+ budgeted animated films on Streaming for FREE. or else no one is going to want to pay to see them in theaters. 

 

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

I don't know about that. I don't think Lightyears underperformance can't be reasoned simply because families aren't taking their kids to the movies anymore. there hasn't been enough tentpole animations to gage that, besides Sing 2 did over $160m in Dec-Jan when the pandemic was at one of it's worst (So they say) and lightyear had some negative PR going in as it was and was kind of a wild card. people's viewing habit's have changed, though, they need to stop releasing $150m+ budgeted animated films on Streaming for FREE. or else no one is going to want to pay to see them in theaters. 

 

 

 

 

No it’s not a matter of that I think action animation is a hard sell and the competition of Guardians and Mermaid which both will do 400m+ domestic will squash it out.

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20 hours ago, poweranimals said:

I'm probably going to regret doing this so early but I'm bored so...

 

1. Guardians of the Galaxy vol 3

2. Indiana Jones 5

3. Ant Man 3: Quantimania

4. Aquaman 2

5. Mission Impossible

6. The Marvels

7. Flash

8. Dune, Part 2

9. Wonka

10. A Quiet Place 3

 

Note: I left out Star Wars and the Untitled Marvel Movie for now since we have no confirmation on what's actually being released.

 

Is this DOM or WW? 

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I wonder what kind of Box office Aquaman and The Flash will do with all the drama surrounding the actors. 

 

Aquaman will probably not be affected too bad. but the Flash :wacko:

 

I'm gonna say Aquaman is still gonna do decent with $285m.

 

Assuming the flash is released as is (no re-cast and same release date)

 

if it's insanely good maybe it can do $200m with the drama at least somewhat in the rearview mirror (although with a fired lead. possibly in prison at the time I don't know)

 

if it's bad... maybe under $100m

 

 

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2 hours ago, YourMother said:

No it’s not a matter of that I think action animation is a hard sell and the competition of Guardians and Mermaid which both will do 400m+ domestic will squash it out.

 

Maybe but I don't think so. GOTG 3 will be pretty much done with it's run by then though and Little Mermaid is not the same target audience. the overall health of the box office should (hopefully) be better by then too.  

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