2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[poweranimals]

5 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

Spider-Verse 2 should beat 4-5 of those. 

I don't know about that. There's a good chance it'll make the top 10, but not very high on that list.

[YM!]

3 hours ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

Spider-Verse 2 should beat 4-5 of those. 

I’d be surprised if SpiderVerse even got on the top 10.

 

On 6/18/2022 at 1:06 PM, poweranimals said:

I'm probably going to regret doing this so early but I'm bored so...

 

1. Guardians of the Galaxy vol 3

2. Indiana Jones 5

3. Ant Man 3: Quantimania

4. Aquaman 2

5. Mission Impossible

6. The Marvels

7. Flash

8. Fast 10

9. Dune, Part 2

10. Wonka

 

Note: I left out Star Wars and the Untitled Marvel Movie for now since we have no confirmation on what's actually being released. Edit: Also, these predictions are domestic.

I don’t think Quantumania would be over The Marvels or Aquaman 2. Also no The Little Mermaid?

Edited June 19, 2022 by YourMother

[XXR vs XXR]

34 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I’d be surprised if SpiderVerse even got on the top 10.

 

 

You don't think Spider-Verse wouldn't beat Wonka or Dune 2 at least? Ehh.....

The first film made $190M on amazing WOM. With that + Spider-Man is peaking right now I'd be surprised if this did under $225M. 

[Eric Atreides]

1 minute ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

You don't think Spider-Verse wouldn't beat Wonka or Dune 2 at least? Ehh.....

What is this anti-Chalanism on display here? 😡

[Juan Caballo]

Kinda feel Haunted Mansion will Flop. 

 

I would need to see that budget. 

 

If there's one of the very few good things Chapek can bring, is the cuts to the ridiculously overbudgeted Disney movies. 

 

Animated movies costing more than 180M...it's just ridiculous to me. 

[MattW]

2022 seems likely to come in at 6.5-7 billion total. If the streaming windows become more predictable maybe it will help next year somewhat. Higher OW pricing also might help if more chains start that. I would guess higher next year than this year but looking at the releases is not very promising IMO. Maybe there will be a big breakout or two, maybe avatar will buoy the beginning of the year enough to make up for it all.

I'll guess  7-7.5b total next year.

[poweranimals]

3 hours ago, YourMother said:

I’d be surprised if SpiderVerse even got on the top 10.

 

I don’t think Quantumania would be over The Marvels or Aquaman 2. Also no The Little Mermaid?

Quantumania seemed like the safer bet because of Scott growing in popularity after having a big role in Endgame. Also, Kang's in it. I can definitely see Aquaman 2 making less than the first one.

 

I considered including the Little Mermaid 2 but it seems like a bit of a wild card at the moment. So does Wonka but I have a good feeling about that one.

[Juby]

On 6/18/2022 at 8:06 PM, poweranimals said:

I'm probably going to regret doing this so early but I'm bored so...

 

1. Guardians of the Galaxy vol 3

2. Indiana Jones 5

3. Ant Man 3: Quantimania

4. Aquaman 2

5. Mission Impossible

6. The Marvels

7. Flash

8. Fast 10

9. Dune, Part 2

10. Wonka

 

Note: I left out Star Wars and the Untitled Marvel Movie for now since we have no confirmation on what's actually being released. Edit: Also, these predictions are domestic.

 

Fast & Furious franchise is slowing down since The Fate of the Furious. F9: The Fast Saga got worse reviews than couple of its predecessors and the worst audience score of them all (IMDb 5.2). There's no chance for Fast X to end up in 2023 Top10. It won't be even on $173-174 million F9-Hobbs & Shaw level. I think this will be this series' Transformers 5. $130-170m range for now.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

Fast & Furious franchise is slowing down since The Fate of the Furious. F9: The Fast Saga got worse reviews than couple of its predecessors and the worst audience score of them all (IMDb 5.2). There's no chance for Fast X to end up in 2023 Top10. It won't be even on $173-174 million F9-Hobbs & Shaw level. I think this will be this series' Transformers 5. $130-170m range for now.

 

I agree i also see the F&F on a downwards trend. Imo, they jumped the shark with Fate of the Furious and especially F9.

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, Juby said:

 

Fast & Furious franchise is slowing down since The Fate of the Furious. F9: The Fast Saga got worse reviews than couple of its predecessors and the worst audience score of them all (IMDb 5.2). There's no chance for Fast X to end up in 2023 Top10. It won't be even on $173-174 million F9-Hobbs & Shaw level. I think this will be this series' Transformers 5. $130-170m range for now.

It is on a downward trejectory but it's supposed to be the final chapter so that might draw more attention than usual. Also, the last one was #5 for the year.

Edited June 21, 2022 by poweranimals

[Juby]

1) This isn't the last chapter. It's the first half of the "one last ride". F&F11 will be in 2025 probably.

2) Being 5th last year means nothing. This year F9 wouldn't be in Top10.

[YM!]

With Ghostbusters 4 and Migration from Illumination being the newest films in the Christmas shovel, Christmas is lacking a four quadrant hit as it’s obvious Star Wars and Star Trek aren’t happening next year and Wonka is the biggest of the bunch so far. My guess it’s either going to be Indiana Jones 5 or The Marvels considering recent rumors it could be the big MCU event that year.

[filmlover]

23 minutes ago, YourMother said:

With Ghostbusters 4 and Migration from Illumination being the newest films in the Christmas shovel, Christmas is lacking a four quadrant hit as it’s obvious Star Wars and Star Trek aren’t happening next year and Wonka is the biggest of the bunch so far. My guess it’s either going to be Indiana Jones 5 or The Marvels considering recent rumors it could be the big MCU event that year.

My guess is The Marvels goes to the holidays and one of either Oppenheimer or Barbie moves back a week to July 28.

[WittyUsername]

Not gonna lie, the uncertainty over what the big event movie of the 2023 holidays will be is kind of annoying at this point. I’m gonna go ahead and assume it won’t be Indiana Jones, because that’s been delayed enough as it is. 

[Claudio]

Disney still haven’t put any MCU movies in December is a mind-boggling fact. It’s the biggest franchise, guaranteed to make bank, 4-quadrant appeals, definitely will take advantage of full Holiday with family. Just like what NWH did. And yet they never released one there.

 

On the other hand MCU’s primary date is early May (kickstart of summer), summer (June-July) and between February or November. The Summer one is great, February or November is okay if they want to do 3 films a year, but a May one is kinda bad. Summer holidays is kinda not started and the legs will cut short by the time holidays kick in with another summer blockbuster. I wonder why they never replace it with December date. Hopefully next year, Disney will try one. Either with Ant-Man or GotG 3. 

[lorddemaxus]

On 6/19/2022 at 3:37 PM, StormbreakerXXR said:

The first film made $190M on amazing WOM. With that + Spider-Man is peaking right now I'd be surprised if this did under $225M. 

Worse release date and I think WoM will be worse. And it'll be a year after the Spider-man peak that you talk of.

 

The first film released in the middle of a Spiderman peak too. Venom, FFH, and the Spider-man game all released around the same time and were huge hits.

[Juan Caballo]

5 hours ago, Claudio said:

Disney still haven’t put any MCU movies in December is a mind-boggling fact. It’s the biggest franchise, guaranteed to make bank, 4-quadrant appeals, definitely will take advantage of full Holiday with family. Just like what NWH did. And yet they never released one there.

 

On the other hand MCU’s primary date is early May (kickstart of summer), summer (June-July) and between February or November. The Summer one is great, February or November is okay if they want to do 3 films a year, but a May one is kinda bad. Summer holidays is kinda not started and the legs will cut short by the time holidays kick in with another summer blockbuster. I wonder why they never replace it with December date. Hopefully next year, Disney will try one. Either with Ant-Man or GotG 3. 

I think... no chance. All 2023 movies are well on their way to make their release dates. 

 

Marvel has still a November 2023 date, which is for Blade. But Blade just got it's production start delayed from July (next month) to October. So I could see maybe Disney delaying Blade to December just to give it 1 month and couple of weeks more. 

 

Or... and this is my honest opinion. 

 

Disney should delay Black Panther to February 2023. Same date of 1st. Black History Month it's perfect. Delay Ant-Man back to July 2023 and The Marvels to the November 2023 date. Disney seems to insistent on GOTG on May. 

 

And THEN... put Blade on February 2023, right at Black History Month again. 

[EmpireCity]

Black Panther isn't moving.  That is staying in November.  Disney marketing is in full force on it in 2 weeks.  

 

We are in the window where the 2023 calendar starts to take shape.  I promise that if you take a picture of it right now, that it looks completely different in 3-4 months.  Things will start to move.  They have to, it is too overstuffed.  

 

I think going through specifics is a wasted excercise, but the better exercise is looking at the films least likely to move.  

 

[Juan Caballo]

While there's a lotta blockbusters next year, I can't help but still feel there's not enough movies next year. 

 

I think we are still going to hear about some blockbusters scheduled in 2023 but there's mid/small budget movies missing all around. This may all be just pointless because we may hear about those in the coming months to. Let's see. I hope so. 

[Juan Caballo]

Also. Been thinking more and I just cannot believe there won't be a Disney movie in December. They will throw something there. 

 

Blade? The November 2023 MCU date is obviously for Blade. But filming was just delayed to October. Maybe 1 more month and a couple of weeks would do some good to finish. 

 

Snow White? This sounds like a GREAT idea. The movie would more than ready to release. And it just fits the time of the year.