TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'm not convinced about a major Mission Impossible bump. It's still a spy franchise in its 7TH(!) installment. Even with price inflation. How much can it conceivably add? The week after is also Oppenheimer and Barbie as of now with MCU following. Not to mention, Indy 5 2 weeks before

 

Mission 2 added roughly $34m onto Mission 1.

 

Mission 3 was down sizably but 2006 was the first film post... Cruise's meltdown which is why Rogue Nation, a soft reboot, added much more on (also a December release that highlighted IMAX) which was about 75m.

 

However, 5 was down from 4 by about 14m. And 6 was up 25million. 

 

So mathematically, the new one next summer should add on anywhere from 25-34m which puts it around 250million.

 

Maybe a better comp would be the Bond series? Skyfall getting to 304m after Casino (167.3m) and Solace (169.3m). STILL, that said.. Spectre's 200m is a more reasonable growth and in line with pricing

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Why is Cobra Kai a bigger draw for Netflix than Fuller House, despite people likely logging way more hours watching the latter’s original? That’s not a coincidence. When you make disposable content, the relationship is also disposable

Probably because Cobra Kai is actually good.

[Potiki]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'm not convinced about a major Mission Impossible bump. It's still a spy franchise in its 7TH(!) installment. Even with price inflation. How much can it conceivably add? The week after is also Oppenheimer and Barbie as of now with MCU following. Not to mention, Indy 5 2 weeks before

 

Mission 2 added roughly $34m onto Mission 1.

 

Mission 3 was down sizably but 2006 was the first film post... Cruise's meltdown which is why Rogue Nation, a soft reboot, added much more on (also a December release that highlighted IMAX) which was about 75m.

 

However, 5 was down from 4 by about 14m. And 6 was up 25million. 

 

So mathematically, the new one next summer should add on anywhere from 25-34m which puts it around 250million.

 

Maybe a better comp would be the Bond series? Skyfall getting to 304m after Casino (167.3m) and Solace (169.3m). STILL, that said.. Spectre's 200m is a more reasonable growth and in line with pricing

MI Dead Reckoning is coming off not only Fallout but now Maverick which are regarded as 2 of the best modern action movies (at least from Hollywood) so as long as Dead Reckoning delivers which I'm sure it will I think $300m DOM $1B WW is doable, but to be fair I thought that was the case before Maverick as well. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, Potiki said:

MI Dead Reckoning is coming off not only Fallout but now Maverick which are regarded as 2 of the best modern action movies (at least from Hollywood) so as long as Dead Reckoning delivers which I'm sure it will I think $300m DOM $1B WW is doable, but to be fair I thought that was the case before Maverick as well. 

I think Top Gun is its own beast and factor. It was a long awaited nostalgia sequel with wider appeal. It might be premature to assume Mission Impossible retains that audience. And I don't think Cruise's non-Mission films received any big boosts in the last decade

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Yes.  

Any chance their big hitters could get wide releases? Thinking something like 13 Lives.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Any chance their big hitters could get wide releases? Thinking something like 13 Lives.

Isn't thirteen Lives still technically MGM?

 

Apple has Ridley Scott's Napoleon, Scorsese's Killers of Flower Moon, and Spirited with Ryan Reynolds/Will Ferrell (Christmas comedy). As well as Farrelly's Green Book followup, Greatest Beer Run. It would be asinine to deny the Scorsese and Christmas films major releases IMO. Leo DiCaprio alone demands a serious wide release

[Potiki]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think Top Gun is its own beast and factor. It was a long awaited nostalgia sequel with wider appeal. It might be premature to assume Mission Impossible retains that audience. And I don't think Cruise's non-Mission films received any big boosts in the last decade

Maybe but I think being in a huge week loved movie doesn't hurt your next movie, I wonder how much good will from Fallout helped Maverick but I guess that is something that isn't polled so we won't know. 

 

Anyway what I was trying to say is that Dead Reckoning kind of has unprecedented factors that are hard to factor in to how big a possible bump it could have in my opinion. 

[excel1]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

When it’s a symbiotic relationship between production, exhibition, and streaming, everyone is better off 

 

But too many investors and CEOs got greedy, trying to pump up a subscriber base in the hopes of eventually cutting out the middle man, handling both production and exclusive distribution. Now they’re finding out there’s more to the entertainment relationship than just pumping out content, but instead cultivating an experience, that creates a lasting impression 

 

Why is Cobra Kai a bigger draw for Netflix than Fuller House, despite people likely logging way more hours watching the latter’s original? That’s not a coincidence. When you make disposable content, the relationship is also disposable

 

100%.

 

There are a lot of variables here.

 

For starters, it feels like everyone was chasing Disney w/ Disney+. As soon as it became apparent that Disney was developing a rival to Netflix exclusively for their content, it seemed like everyone else felt they had to do the same. Except they have nothing resembling Disney's other brand equity and the power that brings to other divisions of the company ala consumer products, amusement parks, etc. It's difficult to fully quantify Disney's efforts to further monetize their consumer relationship as a byproduct of Disney+ subs, but it is likely significant and is something that HBO Max, Paramount +, etc has virtually zero ability to achieve. MAYBE Universal w/ Universal Studios could benefit a bit, but still nothing close to Disney. So that was a bit of a head scratcher for those rival studios.

 

Secondly is in 1 respect, they all timed streaming perfectly because Covid killed the movie business outright for 15 months and then hampered it significantly for another 5-6 months. Who knows where some of these companies would be if they did not have the platform available for content distribution during Covid.

 

Thirdly, pre-covid, it was pretty clear that there was some correction needed from some of the studios. Films were being produced which anyone on this site would have known had no shot at breaking even. 

 

But either way - it could not be more obvious the money is in proper theatrical distribution. Regardless of what Netflix's plan has been, they obviously need to go the theatrical distribution route and try to translate their existing brand equity with moviegoers into something more. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Potiki]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Any chance their big hitters could get wide releases? Thinking something like 13 Lives.

The opposite is happening according to the trades unfortunately. 

 

Quote

Now, Thirteen Lives will instead have a limited theatrical release before debuting relatively quickly on Prime Video as part of their summer event movie strategy, sources confirm. Variety first reported the news.

 

source: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/ron-howard-thirteen-lives-skipping-major-theatrical-release-amazon-1235148145/

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Potiki said:

Maybe but I think being in a huge week loved movie doesn't hurt your next movie, I wonder how much good will from Fallout helped Maverick but I guess that is something that isn't polled so we won't know. 

 

Anyway what I was trying to say is that Dead Reckoning kind of has unprecedented factors that are hard to factor in to how big a possible bump it could have in my opinion. 

I agree Dead Reckoning will increase, but I don't have it over 300m or anything personally. But who knows, people shouldn't doubt Cruise. 

[excel1]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Isn't thirteen Lives still technically MGM?

 

Apple has Ridley Scott's Napoleon, Scorsese's Killers of Flower Moon, and Spirited with Ryan Reynolds/Will Ferrell (Christmas comedy). As well as Farrelly's Green Book followup, Greatest Beer Run. It would be asinine to deny the Scorsese and Christmas films major releases IMO. Leo DiCaprio alone demands a serious wide release

 

I don't know how they could justify not releasing any of those into theaters. On the contrary, each one of those films is a serious opportunity for Apple to legitimize themselves as major players with film production. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, excel1 said:

 

I don't know how they could justify not releasing any of those into theaters. On the contrary, each one of those films is a serious opportunity for Apple to legitimize themselves as major players with film production. 

Yeah, it would be criminal not to release a Leonardo DiCaprio western to theaters. Would be a huge comeback for the genre and it's a Scorsese picture. Leo hasn't missed 100m domestic for a theatrical release (aka Don't Look Up) since J. Edgar which was a stuffy biopic with bad reviews only appealing to senior citizens.

 

I think a lot of Netflix movies would have the stigma and perception of inevitable streaming release, while these Apple films woudnt

[Potiki]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I agree Dead Reckoning will increase, but I don't have it over 300m or anything personally. But who knows, people shouldn't doubt Cruise. 

Fair enough we will find out eventually. Agree that people shouldn't doubt Cruise though, one of the few bankable megastars with global appeal left. 

[excel1]

1 remarkable positive of streaming is the ability/potential to test out things as kind of a go-between. I.E. The Mandalorian is far too successful to ever serve as a TV show, but on the other hand, it may be a bit too expensive and too large of a project to rush into feature film right away. Now that it's an obvious success, it seems absurd to think Disney is not considering some sort of film on the future on the character. Cobra Kai is another one, TBH. There would definitely be a MUCH larger market for a feature film of the series than there was previously. 

 

Streaming - and to a lesser extent, platforms such as YouTube or even TikTok - are dramatically increasing the amount of overall content and providing exposure for all sorts of talent. Youtube, for example, has a number of personalities who would easily translate to stardom on SNL (or potentially even potentially straight to film) ala the "super easy, barely an inconvenience" film pitch segment. 

 

t will no doubt be interesting to see how studuios to try to capture this for their own benefit. 

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Isn't thirteen Lives still technically MGM?

 

Apple has Ridley Scott's Napoleon, Scorsese's Killers of Flower Moon, and Spirited with Ryan Reynolds/Will Ferrell (Christmas comedy). As well as Farrelly's Green Book followup, Greatest Beer Run. It would be asinine to deny the Scorsese and Christmas films major releases IMO. Leo DiCaprio alone demands a serious wide release

Did I miss out anything? I thought paramount still retain the distribution right to the film? That should warrant some theatrical exclusive window like for at least 47 days.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Did I miss out anything? I thought paramount still retain the distribution right to the film? That should warrant some theatrical exclusive window like for at least 47 days.

Paramount didn't mention it at CinemaCon so I'm unsure

[The Dark Rock]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Number should be right about $37m.  

 

Thank you. What about Sat? It stays in $37-38m range?

What does the 4 day weekend looks now?

@RthMav@charlie Jatinder

[fmpro]

3 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Same. Batman is a movie worth 2nd viewing but with that 45 days window, that really demotivate me to watch it again on big screen. That is why 60 days is not long for a huge grosser. Can you imagine EG getting 45 days window?? I can guarantee all the EG vs Avatar drama won't happened if that was the arrangement. 

yep. I saw EG 6 times in theaters. That would not have happend with a 45 day window

[Felandria]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

So it is then 127m instead of 124m. 6.6x of Preview multiplier, compared to 6.2x of batman.
 

Even if Monday come in line with paramount estimate at 27m, that would still mean a record breaking 154m and I am hoping a military-themed movie will fit well as a go-for-choice on memorial day. 

27 million would be a 27% drop which would be in line with the worst drop for a major Memorial Day release in the last decade (as in not that lame Poltergeist remake)

 

if it has a drop like Aladdin, then you get 31 million

[Juby]

The film with "A+" Cinemascore played in over 4000 theaters and with the best legs is Black Panther (x3.47, OW was also boosted by strong holiday Monday). Top Gun: Maverick with same legs will finish with about $430m dom. if Paramount won't screw it by releasing the film on Paramount+ after 45 days, I think TGM can go that high.