TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Because it's a spectacle that demands to be seen on the biggest screen possible, Ford v Ferrari wasn't.

Also, F vs F lost all of its premium screens in week 2 to F2.

[M37]

32 minutes ago, Show Me The Legion said:

Huh? MoM should be like 99% chance at this point — it needs to add like 1.16x the memorial 4day

 

IM2 1.57x

IM3 1.46x

AoU 1.69x

CW 1.53x   
 

I can easily buy DS2 having the worst mdw multi of all these but not 20% below the 2nd worst. Not sure if anything has had that bad a mdw multi. 
 

TF2 should also hit it but easier to imagine a miss since we’re still so early on the run.

No, you’re right. I was looking at the total after the 3-day ($371), not the 4-day. So $400 should happen … but not by much 

[Cooper Legion]

Thinking a 14th  place finish on Superhero charts, between SM1 and CW. Really should have hit the top 10 if it was decent, just takes 427M right now. 

[M37]

25 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

400m + 450m. 

Until the 2nd weekend number is out, I am not sure how locked is the 400m but I have been secretly predicting TGM will be the biggest domestic grosser for paramount since titanic, i.e. > 402m by TF2. 
 

Problem is that 3.17x legs is still a bit too much to ask from a 100m opener. Look at ford v Ferrari, another dad movie with high white male turnout rate receiving A+ cinemascore back in 2019, “only” managed to pull out 3.7x legs from just 31m opening,  and that was with some of the late legs were boosted by Oscar nomination. 
 

TGM is far more accessible with summer weekdays of course but I am just not sure if our marketplace nowadays can any longer allow a leggy run. It is good to be wrong though, I hope I can be awestruck by 2nd week hold. 

My trepidation with calling $400M a lock for TG2 is how heavy the PLF skew is (righty, given the WOM), and it loses all of those in 2 weeks. Plus decent competition for eyeballs in general over the summer, and the unfortunate trend of overbooking new release screens at the expense of holdovers 

 

Still expect it to do well over those 2 months, but will take some wind out of the sails, and if Paramount is successful in pushing for a shorter release window, may lose opportunity for late legs, including an IMAX re-release in August 

[filmlover]

Top Gun will see big-ish drops these next two weeks between coming off of Memorial Day followed the week after by losing all IMAX/PLF screens (due to Jurassic World) but should easily stabilize from there due to lack of direct competition due to its main demographic of older people (aside from perhaps Elvis). Just look at how light the schedule is the next two months starting in two weeks:

 

June 10: Jurassic World

June 17: Lightyear

June 24: The Black Phone, Elvis

July 1: Minions

July 8: Thor

July 15: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (I believe this is a wide release?), Paws of Fury, Where the Crawdads Sing

July 22: Nope

July 29: Super-Pets

August 5: Bodies Bodies Bodies, Bullet Train, Easter Sunday

 

Earliest it's leaving the top 10 is the weekend of July 22. It's going to be around for a while.

[LegendaryBen]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

My trepidation with calling $400M a lock for TG2 is how heavy the PLF skew is (righty, given the WOM), and it loses all of those in 2 weeks. Plus decent competition for eyeballs in general over the summer, and the unfortunate trend of overbooking new release screens at the expense of holdovers 

 

Still expect it to do well over those 2 months, but will take some wind out of the sails, and if Paramount is successful in pushing for a shorter release window, may lose opportunity for late legs, including an IMAX re-release in August 

If Paramount gets their way, it's all Bob Chapek's fault. Since 2020, I project he has manipulated executives into doing shorter window theatrical releases. What a runt he is.

At least TG2 did not end up like ID2 on the bright side. Plus, it's doing very well internationally (when it could've been worse considering those type of films do not always correlate well internationally).

 

[LegendaryBen]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Top Gun will see big-ish drops these next two weeks between coming off of Memorial Day followed the week after by losing all IMAX/PLF screens (due to Jurassic World) but should easily stabilize from there due to lack of direct competition due to its main demographic of older people (aside from perhaps Elvis). Just look at how light the schedule is the next two months starting in two weeks:

 

June 10: Jurassic World

June 17: Lightyear

June 24: The Black Phone, Elvis

July 1: Minions

July 8: Thor

July 15: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (I believe this is a wide release?), Paws of Fury, Where the Crawdads Sing

July 22: Nope

July 29: Super-Pets

August 5: Bodies Bodies Bodies, Bullet Train, Easter Sunday

 

Earliest it's leaving the top 10 is the weekend of July 22. It's going to be around for a while.

According to an article from Naveen Chopra CFO of Paramount, “We do still look at it on a case-by-case [basis]. There are certain movies that are really made for the theatrical experience,” Chopra said. “‘Top Gun [Maverick]’ is a great example of that. You should see that movie in a theater, and it will stay in the theater for a longer period of time.”

[EmpireCity]

50 minutes ago, M37 said:

My trepidation with calling $400M a lock for TG2 is how heavy the PLF skew is (righty, given the WOM), and it loses all of those in 2 weeks. Plus decent competition for eyeballs in general over the summer, and the unfortunate trend of overbooking new release screens at the expense of holdovers 

 

Still expect it to do well over those 2 months, but will take some wind out of the sails, and if Paramount is successful in pushing for a shorter release window, may lose opportunity for late legs, including an IMAX re-release in August 

 

Paramount isn't getting a shorter window.  The article that started this discussion was pure speculation by the author.  

[LegendaryBen]

9 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Paramount isn't getting a shorter window.  The article that started this discussion was pure speculation by the author.  

I would give you a like and thanks on this. You are very trustworthy. 

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

@IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar

setting the hounds or I guess velociraptors on them?

 

I'm pretty sure Disney is waiting until films aren't making money to Disney+ them. So we're probably looking at 200-300 days until Avatar 2 makes it on the streaming service.

[Xavier]

I’m hoping on a wild overperformance of TG2 on Sunday and Monday. Like, over 155mil 4-day.

[Brainbug]

DHD update:

 

MONDAY AM UPDATE: Refresh for more analysis and chart Paramount/Skydance’s Top Gun: Maverick has beaten Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End fair and square for the Memorial Day opening 4-day record (+ previews) at the domestic box office with $156M. 

At World’s End’s four-day holiday opening of $139.8M was further puffed by Thursday previews which got that third Pirates to a $153M stateside start, a Memorial Day record Disney held for the last 15 years. No more, those bragging rights go to Paramount now. Over the weekend, debate raged on as to whether those $13.2M At World’s End previews should be included in that pic’s 4-day opening; that gross recorded at a time before studios began rolling previews into their weekend openings. Forever, Box Office Mojo and Comscore showed At World’s End with a 4-day start of $139.8M. But given how previews have been included in these blockbuster openings, it only made sense to measure this race by an apples-to-apples slide rule.

 

Top Gun: Maverick made $36.7M yesterday, -3% from its $38M Saturday. The three-day stands at $126.7M, which is still second best among Friday-Sunday starts for Paramount after Iron Man 2 ($128.1M).

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Xavier said:

I’m hoping on a wild overperformance of TG2 on Sunday and Monday. Like, over 155mil 4-day.

 

Why not pull for the truly impossible of TGM Monday DOM over Sunday DOM for a movie obviously made for a military holiday...

 

(Oh wait, I made this exact point for how perfect this OW was gonna be when they moved this movie, like what, 9 months ago to this date:)...Guess I was right!

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, Xavier said:

I’m hoping on a wild overperformance of TG2 on Sunday and Monday. Like, over 155mil 4-day.

 

Wouldn't be that wild. If Sunday is $37M like EC says, then it would need roughly $29M today (-22% from Sunday) for $155M. Even Solo only dropped -24% on Memorial Day, and that wasn't an A+ Cinemascore military movie on a military holiday. 

[druv10]

‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Deep-Sixes ‘Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World’s End’ For Memorial Day Opening Record With $156M – Monday AM Update

 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/05/top-gun-maverick-box-office-1235034420/

[TwoMisfits]

Updated demo breakdown for Top Gun M from Deadline...I think Caucasians have now officially turned out for this with more OW revenue than the recent supers...(92% 18+, so just 8% under 18 so far - families still not coming out much - maybe a summer deal where you buy an adult ticket and get an under 18 free could be a good plan for some enterprising movie)...

 

"Updated demos are 58% guys, 42% women. The under-35 repped 45%, which is promising, considering that the sequel is appealing to a wider demo. Those over 35 repped 55%, while the 18-34 segment repped 37% of attendance. Diversity demos were 66% Caucasian, 16% Latino and Hispanic, 7% African American, and 7% Asian."

Edited May 30, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Updated demo breakdown for Top Gun M from Deadline...I think Caucasians have now officially turned out for this with more OW revenue than the recent supers...

 

"Updated demos are 58% guys, 42% women. The under-35 repped 45%, which is promising, considering that the sequel is appealing to a wider demo. Those over 35 repped 55%, while the 18-34 segment repped 37% of attendance. Diversity demos were 66% Caucasian, 16% Latino and Hispanic, 7% African American, and 7% Asian."

 

On a percentage basis, most likely. On an actual dollars basis, I'm sure NWH was higher and MOM probably as well. 

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Why not pull for the truly impossible of TGM Monday DOM over Sunday DOM for a movie obviously made for a military holiday...

 

(Oh wait, I made this exact point for how perfect this OW was gonna be when they moved this movie, like what, 9 months ago to this date:)...Guess I was right!

It is only fitting when a military movie hold the record for Memorial Day weekend record. And I am curious to see if Memorial Day is gonna to the same impact like how veteran day to military movies. 
 

Too bad TGM is this close overtaking POTC3 for the 3 days record. POTC3 had huge fan rush that pushed it to far higher Friday. 

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

 

On a percentage basis, most likely. On an actual dollars basis, I'm sure NWH was higher and MOM probably as well. 

 

Nah, MOM will be much lower Caucasian for overall DOM OW...

 

66% Caucasian of 126.7M (the TGM 3 day) is $83.662M

35% Caucasian (MoM's Diversity breakdown) of $187.420 (the 3 day) is $65.597M

 

From Deadline...

 

"Other diagnostics on the Doctor: Guys are driving business at 62% per PostTrak, with 57% over 25, with 61% between 18-34 years old. Diversity demos are 35% Caucasian, 30% Hispanic and Latino, 18% Black, 10% Asian, and 8% other."

 

https://deadline.com/2022/05/doctor-strange-2-box-office-1235018006/

Edited May 30, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Valonqar]

Useless trivia but POTC:AWE Memorial Day OW (4 days) was only 4M above DMC's 3 day so it wasn't really a win. It was a drop for the franchise.