TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Is this mad to anyone else? I would have thought they'd have loads of content ready to go like 'back with a bang' sort of thing. 

COVID-related production setbacks and the shift to streaming has resulted in a relatively light theatrical schedule for 2022. I think the only major studio with a full slate is Universal with 20 movies scheduled for theatrical release this year, otherwise WB has a mere 8, Sony is putting out only 11, etc.

[BruiseCruise]

 

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

 

 

That is a drop from the estimate of almost $600K...it will be a 50-51% drop, even with the holiday...

 

Top Gun 2 really did suck the air out of it...

[Borobudur]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

That is a drop from the estimate of almost $600K...it will be a 50-51% drop, even with the holiday...

 

Top Gun 2 really did suck the air out of it...

But I believe 400m is pretty safe at this point. If it followed CW from here, MoM will hit 410m. 

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

But I believe 400m is pretty safe at this point. If it followed CW from here, MoM will hit 410m. 

 

yep it's safe. No way it fails to add a little more than 25M it needs to hit the milestone after 15.86M 3-day. 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Valonqar

[LonePirate]

16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

That is a drop from the estimate of almost $600K...it will be a 50-51% drop, even with the holiday...

 

Top Gun 2 really did suck the air out of it...

TGM took all of DS2's PLF screens hence the large hit.

[AdrianL]

42 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I wonder if the Black Adam trailer will be attached to Elvis or will they wait until the release of Thor: Love and Thunder? Given Disney will likely attach Black Panther: Wakanda Forever with Thor, I think WB will likely debut the BA trailer earlier.

The trailer date has already been announced, June 8.

[wildphantom]

29 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

That is a drop from the estimate of almost $600K...it will be a 50-51% drop, even with the holiday...

 

Top Gun 2 really did suck the air out of it...

as did the news that repeat viewings can be curtailed for many due to it hitting Disney+ in a few weeks. Word gets out quick.  Let alone those that hadn’t got round to seeing it yet being told it’s on their tv for free before the end of June. 

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

as did the news that repeat viewings can be curtailed for many due to it hitting Disney+ in a few weeks. Word gets out quick.  Let alone those that hadn’t got round to seeing it yet being told it’s on their tv for free before the end of June. 

 

I agree. I think windows should be at least 90 days for the big movies...any less and people can count the days once they miss the opening week or two...

[M37]

1 hour ago, Eric Belcher said:

Regal is doing the same thing! They've been adding a random Airbnb commercial in the middle of the trailers and I have no clue why. Do these theater chains know people hate seeing too many trailers and commercials?

Expect a lot more of that in the future, unfortunately. They recently integrated the advertising component into the digital projection system, so ads can be mixed in at any point in the trailers, and I assume they can charge more the closer it runs to start of feature 

[John Marston]

One Tom Cruise hit that always floors me is The Firm. This is a really long legal thriller yet it got a prime 4th of July  weekend release date and its  gross adjusts to well over 300m today. Prime example of how important Star power was 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by John Marston

[Jonwo]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

COVID-related production setbacks and the shift to streaming has resulted in a relatively light theatrical schedule for 2022. I think the only major studio with a full slate is Universal with 20 movies scheduled for theatrical release this year, otherwise WB has a mere 8, Sony is putting out only 11, etc.

WB having so few releases is unusual for them but I think the combo of HBO Max and the Warner Bros. Discovery merger played a part.

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

as did the news that repeat viewings can be curtailed for many due to it hitting Disney+ in a few weeks. Word gets out quick.  Let alone those that hadn’t got round to seeing it yet being told it’s on their tv for free before the end of June. 

Its harsh drop this weekend (for the 3-day at least) is a combo of Top Gun blowing up + losing all IMAX/PLF. Expect Top Gun to see a similar drop in two weeks when Jurassic World takes over those screens (and expect Jurassic World to see at a minimum a 60% drop in its second weekend when Lightyear takes over all large screen formats and most bigger auditoriums even with a potential strong hold on Father's Day Sunday that weekend).

Edited May 30, 2022 by filmlover

[LegendaryBen]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Its harsh drop this weekend (for the 3-day at least) is a combo of Top Gun blowing up + losing all IMAX/PLF. Expect Top Gun to see a similar drop in two weeks when Jurassic World takes over those screens (and expect Jurassic World to see at a minimum a 60% drop in its second weekend when Lightyear takes over all large screen formats and most bigger auditoriums even with a potential strong hold on Father's Day Sunday that weekend).

What's your final prediction total for TGM and OW predictions for JWD and Lightyear?

[filmlover]

Just now, LegendaryBen said:

What's your final prediction total for TGM and OW predictions for JWD and Lightyear?

We'll see what Top Gun's legs are like the next few weeks.

 

As for the other two, I guess Jurassic World is opening about $15-20M higher than the last one. Definitely doesn't feel like the hype is on the same level as it was in 2015. Lightyear will probably open with the same numbers as Toy Story 4 did.

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

We'll see what Top Gun's legs are like the next few weeks.

 

As for the other two, I guess Jurassic World is opening about $15-20M higher than the last one. Definitely doesn't feel like the hype is on the same level as it was in 2015. Lightyear will probably open with the same numbers as Toy Story 4 did.

 

why should a spin off open as high an actual installment?

[Johnny Tran]

50 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

yep it's safe. No way it fails to add a little more than 25M it needs to hit the milestone after 15.86M 3-day. 

 

What's the dom + OS total gonna be now?  900?  1B? 

[wildphantom]

18 minutes ago, John Marston said:

One Tom Cruise hit that always floors me is The Firm. This is a really long legal thriller yet it got a prime 4th of July  weekend release date and its  gross adjusts to well over 300m today. Prime example of how important Star power was 

 

 

 

 

 

immense movie. In my top 5 Cruise starrers. Love that film. 

[wildphantom]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Its harsh drop this weekend (for the 3-day at least) is a combo of Top Gun blowing up + losing all IMAX/PLF. Expect Top Gun to see a similar drop in two weeks when Jurassic World takes over those screens (and expect Jurassic World to see at a minimum a 60% drop in its second weekend when Lightyear takes over all large screen formats and most bigger auditoriums even with a potential strong hold on Father's Day Sunday that weekend).

i do think the drop was larger than it should have been, despite the PLF hit. Memorial weekend is a major movie going holiday and it was the second biggest draw around. I thought it would have held a little better after last weekend’s sizeable drop and the holiday Monday buffer. 
 

I do think Disney+ incoming release is a bit of a factor. 

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

why should a spin off open as high an actual installment?

It's arguably the highest-profile animated movie to hit screens since Frozen 2 opened months before the pandemic occurred (everything else since then has basically been either a streaming sacrifice or a nonstarter with the possible exception of Sing 2 and to an extent Encanto given the circumstances), and will be the first kids movie in almost two months. Add in the fact it'll be an drawing older than usual audience for an animated flick + the Toy Story tie-in + the open marketplace and an opening on that level doesn't seem crazy at all.

Edited May 30, 2022 by filmlover