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Best Actress Predictions: 2022

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52 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

This really should be a Telluride + TIFF film not NYFF

 

One the bright side, while TIFF usually gets clogged by Oscar players, Till will have a lot of NYFF buzz to itself. But you're also right because, with that early October release date, they're missing a chance to get the buzz train rolling a little earlier.

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7 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

This really should be a Telluride + TIFF film not NYFF

 

werent there some rumblings that the movie sucked?

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Cate Blanchett

Viola Davis

Margot Robbie

Michelle Williams

Michelle Yeoh

 

ALT:

Naomi Ackie- big biopic holiday release but will it breakout enough

Olivia Colman- the movie is floppy and there's no incentive to nominate her once again so recently

Danielle Deadwyler- the performance will be raved but the buzz is low

 

I think Davis is the least likely, but she's a majorly respected thespian with an audience fave and big performance. Williams should have gone Supporting, but still won't miss. The rest are good to go (assuming Babylon isn't a flop which I don't believe it will be)

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The raves for Deadwyler in Till are god-tier, to the point where I think she's safely in now (SAG should be an easy nomination for her). Even if the film gets in nowhere else she's likely good for a lone nomination in the end ala Ruth Negga. 

 

Confident in this lineup now:

 

Cate Blanchett, TAR

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Margot Robbie, Babylon

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

With Ackie and Davis on the outside looking in.

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On 10/13/2022 at 7:37 PM, filmlover said:

The raves for Deadwyler in Till are god-tier, to the point where I think she's safely in now (SAG should be an easy nomination for her). Even if the film gets in nowhere else she's likely good for a lone nomination in the end ala Ruth Negga. 

 

Confident in this lineup now:

 

Cate Blanchett, TAR

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Margot Robbie, Babylon

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

With Ackie and Davis on the outside looking in.

Hard to argue against that line up, and honestly....it's a year where you could make a case for ANY of them winning. Some are stronger than others, sure, but it feels like a really strong line-up this year.

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With Babylon sputtering and the Whitney biopic going nowhere I'm thinking Davis is safely in now, especially when she'll likely show up at SAG.

 

Latest predictions:

 

Cate Blanchett, TAR

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

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Anyone else following the last minute Andrea Riseborough push?

 

Quote

Many more have also posted about it on social media including Aniston (“Beautiful”), Susan Sarandon (“beautiful, lil gem of a film”), Helen Hunt (“If you’re out there voting for performances, don’t do it till you see Andrea Riseborough”), Zooey Deschanel (“amazing movie”), Melanie Lynskey (“even for her this is next level”), Mira Sorvino (“absolutely stunning, wrenching and beautiful”), Constance Zimmer (“you’ll never forget this performance”), Rosie O’Donnell (“devastatingly beautiful film”), Minnie Driver (“run don’t walk”), Alan Cumming (“an insanely raw and beautiful performance”) Daphne Zuniga (“incredible performance”), Tan France, Jenny McCarthy and many more. Frances Fisher, Rosanna Arquette, Debra Winger, Patricia Clarkson and Howard Stern are also part of the chorus of supporters.

 

A lot of the posts have very similar wording and just appeared in the last few days:

 

Was there only money to campaign during Oscar nomination voting? Does Riseborough's agent have dirt on...everyone, and that's why they've posted the same gushing blurbs? Did Hollywood see the potential Best Actress lineup featuring so many women of color and say, "Not on our watch!" What is going on?

 

 

 

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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32 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Anyone else following the last minute Andrea Riseborough push?

 

 

A lot of the posts have very similar wording and just appeared in the last few days:

 

Was there only money to campaign during Oscar nomination voting? Does Riseborough's agent have dirt on...everyone, and that's why they've posted the same gushing blurbs? Did Hollywood see the potential Best Actress lineup featuring so many women of color and say, "Not on our watch!" What is going on?

 

 

 

No, I've been following this too. I feel like Aniston herself tried this same self-made campaign with Cake back in 2014-2015 but even that was less under-the-radar than To Leslie is (Aniston still managed some major noms for it only to be snubbed in the end). The race is is pretty shaky after Yeoh and Blanchett, with de Armas (praised performance in a panned movie) and Davis (Woman King is clearly weak overall) appearing vulnerable and I assume Williams will still make it in the end due to the strength of her movie.

 

That said, Andrea Riseborough crashing the Best Actress category at the last minute with a tiny movie from a nothing distributor to a nomination out of nowhere is precisely the kind of awards season insanity I live for.

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15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

No, I've been following this too. I feel like Aniston herself tried this same self-made campaign with Cake back in 2014-2015 but even that was less under-the-radar than To Leslie is (Aniston still managed some major noms for it only to be snubbed in the end). The race is is pretty shaky after Yeoh and Blanchett, with de Armas (praised performance in a panned movie) and Davis (Woman King is clearly weak overall) appearing vulnerable and I assume Williams will still make it in the end due to the strength of her movie.

 

That said, Andrea Riseborough crashing the Best Actress category at the last minute with a tiny movie from a nothing distributor to a nomination out of nowhere is precisely the kind of awards season insanity I live for.

Cake, LOL, but even that didn't come out of no where during nomination voting week. We've all seen stars do SM posts about contenders they like, but usually it's a bit less manufactured? Or maybe the cult-like nature of the praise is part of the campaign. It's so weird, very sloppy for a PR push.

 

If Deadwyler misses and Riseborough makes it in...not that Oscar voters care about poor optics, but Film Twitter and the media will be happy to remind them...

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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15 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Cake, LOL, but even that didn't come out of no where during nomination voting week. We've all seen stars do SM posts about contenders they like, but usually it's a bit less manufactured? Or maybe the cult-like nature of the praise is part of the campaign. It's so weird, very sloppy for a PR push.

 

If Deadwyler misses and Riseborough makes it in...not that Oscar voters care about poor optics, but Film Twitter and the media will be happy to remind them...

The most shameless and actually refreshing campaign. It's nice when actors clearly tell us they want an Oscar

 

 

d9d3576692d1bc4a04c766b75e63e442c6-melis

 

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53 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The most shameless and actually refreshing campaign. It's nice when actors clearly tell us they want an Oscar

 

 

d9d3576692d1bc4a04c766b75e63e442c6-melis

 

Consider was so strange, since IIRC, Melissa Leo was already the frontrunner when those ads appeared. It was like she got in her feelings that a teenager was serious competition in her category, so she responded with messy interviews and Glamour Shots. Pundits at the time actually wondered if her overt thirst was going to ruin her chances at winning.

 

But this Riseborough thing is different than an actor hyping themselves Dozens of actors are regurgitating the same copypasta out of no where for a movie that got released last October. Frances Fisher is literally in the IG comments posting the math of how many votes Andrea needs to make the Top 5. WTH?

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