Top Gun Maverick Weekdays Thread | 15.8m Tue, 14.8m Wed, 14.5m Thurs, ??m Fri

[Liiviig 1998]

Fri jumps will be muted but it's still an insane drop 7% . That's way better than aladdin (-36%)

 

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

pictures of jennifer connelly trend on twitter > top gun has soft drop

 

natural course of events

 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not the regular thing I base my number on but 14.5 or so

 

Amazing number - possibly above Strange DOM total by same release point by Sunday?  It's already above Strange weekdays, although this is more summer than that one was...

[Tokugennumataka]

Wtf?! That's mindblowing. Assuming 14M Thu, these look like conservative estimates now:

Fri - 21.7 (+55) 

Sat - 29.3 (+35) 

Sun - 21.7 (-26) 

72.7 (-43%). I'd consider that a reasonable baseline expectation. 

 

[EmpireCity]

$14.7m

[Gavin Feng]

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$14.7m

 

Are you sure this time it's $14.7M instead of $13.4M 

[Tokugennumataka]

Here's the multis of the past 10 years' MD openers including the first Wednesday numbers. Again, Maverick is on another level. Keep in mind that we're just 3 days into their post OW runs. So, what seems like a small difference in multi is actually pretty huge. 

MiB3 - 1.445x
F&F6 - 1.344x
XM: DoFP - 1.371x
Tomorrowland - 1.44x
XM: Apocalypse - 1.378x
PotC:DMTNT - 1.422x
Solo:ASWS - 1.364x
Aladdin - 1.489x
TG:M - 1.506x

it's outpacing Aladdin and that ended with 3.89x. Looks like 4.0x is likely. $500M looking very possible here. 

Edited June 2, 2022 by Tokugennumataka

[YM!]

37 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$14.7m

My god, this is going to be the biggest film of the summer.

[Xavier]

It is a juggernaut, a mighty impressive run. Who would have thought?

[charlie Jatinder]

Optimistically may be $85M.

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Optimistically may be $85M.

For the weekend?

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Optimistically may be $85M.

 

Can you break that down? Im having a hard time believing 70M+ plus, let alone 80M+

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Can you break that down? Im having a hard time believing 70M+ plus, let alone 80M+

70 mil seems not that hard even from a 10% Thurs drop.

[BruiseCruise]

This thing is gonna pull an Avatar isn't it

[Firepower]

It feels like a real cultural event movie back from good old days, I didn't think it's possible to witness something like that today, but here we are, life is stranger than fiction indeed.

[YM!]

At the point the question isn’t can Maverick win the summer but can it be the second biggest film behind Avatar 2 this year. Wakanda has a 500m domestic floor but who knows what’ll happen.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

My god, this is going to be the biggest film of the summer.

 

I think EmpireCity and I said that already in the weekend thread on Saturday:)...

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

At the point the question isn’t can Maverick win the summer but can it be the second biggest film behind Avatar 2 this year. Wakanda has a 500m domestic floor but who knows what’ll happen.

 

Avatar 2 won't beat it...my worry is Black Panther 2, but even then, I think I said this weekend that I think it could still win the year:)!

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Biggest Non-holiday WED (non-opener)

1. Endgame - $25.25M (non-summer)
2. Jurassic World - $19.89M
3. Incredibles 2 - $19.7M
4. TDK - $18.4M
5. Finding Dory - $18M 

 

7. Infinity War - $16.9M (non-Summer)
8. Black Panther - $14.7M (non-Summer)
8/9. Top Gun: Maverick - $14.5M+

Top Gun is neither full summer nor non-summer. Its somewhere in between. With these crazy weekdays plus audience being older, it will have a soft friday increase. But that wont matter if weekdays are so big. I am not able to even see what is the ceiling for this movie. This could play strong through next 2 months. Hopefully studios realize movies can do well for > 45 days. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Top Gun is neither full summer nor non-summer. Its somewhere in between. With these crazy weekdays plus audience being older, it will have a soft friday increase. But that wont matter if weekdays are so big. I am not able to even see what is the ceiling for this movie. This could play strong through next 2 months. Hopefully studios realize movies can do well for > 45 days. 

 

Ive already accepted that Top Gun will be a big negative factor for Dominions grosses. A pop culture phenomenon playing at the same time always ensures "normal" blockbusters to suffer. How much is now the question.

 

But i dont see Top Gun negatively affecting Lightyear. Audience seems too different for that.