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Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

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1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

Also, @Shawn, as an olive branch we can get the weekend started now.  

 

Number is looking to be $22m for Friday with hopefully $23m possible.  Should be at $53m by the end of Saturday and right around $75m by the end of Sunday.  

 

bring-it-in-hug-it-out.gif

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22 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

It is indeed early but we may need to temper expectations for today. Things seems to be noticeably cooler at the theaters around me when compared to last weekend when things were simply insane. I’m guessing the weekend drop will be closer to 50% than 40% but maybe I will be surprised. 

Last Fri was also both opening day and a holiday Friday, where a lot of people take off for an extra long weekend 

 

Seniors and PLFs will rule Fri day, adults will be much more at night 

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I haven't been super into boxoffice numbers and patterns for years now(funny on a boxoffice forum I know), but is there a reason why this isn't expected to jump around 100% on Friday like Pirates 3 did after Memorial Day weekend?  Or like Doctor Strange did on its second Friday several weeks ago?  Thanks.

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I think 73-75m is a safe bet now. It's an intriguing in-house battle between TGM's domestic and international tally as well. It's ahead domestically but it still has Korea to open which is a big Cruise hub. Both trending towards 450m, so 900m WW seem to be a done deal. How it handles Jurassic World will tell us if it can hit a billion.

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5 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

I haven't been super into boxoffice numbers and patterns for years now(funny on a boxoffice forum I know), but is there a reason why this isn't expected to jump around 100% on Friday like Pirates 3 did after Memorial Day weekend?  Or like Doctor Strange did on its second Friday several weeks ago?  Thanks.

 

Because it made a lot more money over the weekdays than those two. 

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19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why on earth is AQP2 a good comp for TGM. That was a fricking horror movie !!!! Older audience would be there over the weekend. Plus I am sure others would be curious to check it out after this great start. 

Percentage-wise, EmpireCity's higher end puts their Friday increases about equal. I'm just saying that Saturday and Sunday need to be a lot stronger percentage-wise to climb to 75 and beyond.

 

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45 minutes ago, cookie said:

Assuming $22m Friday, AQP2's increases/drops would only net about $68m weekend, barely over $70m with $23m. Gonna need a Saturday bump closer to Aladdin to hit $75m+ from the lower Friday, I'd think. Higher end could get close to $80m.

Aladdin had a 45% jump sat.

TGM only needs 35% jump to get to 75m of a 22m friday.

Sun drop will be soft 20-25%

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32 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

I think 73-75m is a safe bet now. It's an intriguing in-house battle between TGM's domestic and international tally as well. It's ahead domestically but it still has Korea to open which is a big Cruise hub. Both trending towards 450m, so 900m WW seem to be a done deal. How it handles Jurassic World will tell us if it can hit a billion.

 

I hope that both Top Gun and JW will be able to co-exist together without cannibalizing each other. The marketplace surely has enough room/seats for that.

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22 minutes ago, cookie said:

Percentage-wise, EmpireCity's higher end puts their Friday increases about equal. I'm just saying that Saturday and Sunday need to be a lot stronger percentage-wise to climb to 75 and beyond.

 

AQP2 was a horror movie and it was in the middle of the pandemic where sat jumps were little lower.

 

JW -34.3% sat jump 2nd wknd

POTC2 -34.1%

POTC3 - 39.4%

TLK.  19   - 33.1%

Aladdin. -45.5%

To mention but a few.

 

On average 30-40+% sat jump for second weekend

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

I haven't been super into boxoffice numbers and patterns for years now(funny on a boxoffice forum I know), but is there a reason why this isn't expected to jump around 100% on Friday like Pirates 3 did after Memorial Day weekend?  Or like Doctor Strange did on its second Friday several weeks ago?  Thanks.

We’re now moving into Summer, which means higher weekdays and lower Thu/Fri increases in general, and weekdays in general do more business now than 15 years ago  

 

But for Top Gun specifically, the weekday have been VERY good, due to both an older audience a lot of people going during week to see IMAX and other PLFs. So there is just less room for audience/numbers to grow

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20220603-weekend-prediction.png

 

The Numbers seriously needs to change their model

 

Also their reasoning: For Top Gun, our model thinks its opening weekend performance indicates a high level of “fanboy” interest, and therefore a steep drop in its second weekend looks likely.

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10 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Also their reasoning: For Top Gun, our model thinks its opening weekend performance indicates a high level of “fanboy” interest, and therefore a steep drop in its second weekend looks likely.

 

This is a very good parody prediction. I didnt know The Numbers were the equivalent of The Onion for Box office websites!

 

Always nice to learn new things.

 

Edited by Brainbug the Dinosaur
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31 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I hope that both Top Gun and JW will be able to co-exist together without cannibalizing each other. The marketplace surely has enough room/seats for that.

 

Should co-exist nicely, JW will have the family crowd and TGM have the older adults. I think JW will hurt TGM internationally a bit and same way JW will suffer a bit domestically. As discussed before losing IMAX will dent TGM's tally a bit, but WoM is so strong, we shouldn't see significant decline. For sure TGM is having one of the most fun runs to track in the US and the UK, each daily numbers feel like a great balls of fire haha

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46 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I hope that both Top Gun and JW will be able to co-exist together without cannibalizing each other. The marketplace surely has enough room/seats for that.


Coexist is totally possible. Those massive turn out of above 35 who saw TGM in cinema likely saw JWD trailer that highlighting the trio return. And one thing, the group that experience TG phenomenon in 1986, likely also caught up in JP smash in 1993. It is reasonable to expect some level of interest in JWD from those above 35 and 45. And it is like not like this age group went to cinema very often in the past 2 years. Certainly a lot of them don’t mind visit cinema again in such short period of time. 

 

1 hour ago, LonePirate said:

It is indeed early but we may need to temper expectations for today. Things seems to be noticeably cooler at the theaters around me when compared to last weekend when things were simply insane. I’m guessing the weekend drop will be closer to 50% than 40% but maybe I will be surprised. 

I remember last time when people were so hyped by the 2nd weekend performance was joker. After that movie posted crazy mid-week and early OS number all pointed phenomenal hold, many actually expect the movie to come above 60m or drop 36%, with some help from Columbus holiday on Monday. So when joker actually drop 41% in the end, there was some “disappointment” over the hold, forgetting that there wasn’t much room to jump if the base number was so large. This is especiallly true since reopening, holiday/ weekend bump are always muted. 

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The sad thing is that next Friday I’ll be sat in my local IMAX theatre wishing I was watching Maverick again, rather than the dinosaur movie. 
 

No slight as I’m looking forward to seeing Dominion. Yet TG2 is so great it almost seems wrong it has to vacate these screens at this point. 
 

Is Lightyear contracted to take all these screens too the week after?

 

let’s get these things seen and then outta here already. Bring Maverick back to his PLF church until Avatar 2. 
 

$600 million or go home!!! 
 

 

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