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Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

By EmpireCity, in Numbers and Data

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superduperm Box Office Gold

superduperm

Posted
Posted (edited)

People are taking Charlie’s number seriously?

 

1. It was posted at 2 P.M. Eastern/11 A.M. Pacific. There’s not nearly enough data to make a projection at that time.

 

2. This movie has clearly skewed towards older audiences which means heavier walkups. Again, very little data on that at this time. Plus, even in June, older audiences have a lot more time on their hands on Saturday than Friday.

 

3. It increased 16% from true Friday to Saturday on opening weekend. It’s not staying flat from Friday to Saturday on its second weekend.

 

Everyone needs to relax. If it were 28 I would be disappointed but 25 at 2 P.M. Eastern is clearly a troll number.

Edited by superduperm
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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I think Black Phone will do more than 5M. I can see 10M or so OW DOM.

I’m hoping for $20m+ 

 

31 minutes ago, AJG said:

They’re saying Morbius sold 4 tickets per theatre…

the tweet is pretty savage lol

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, superduperm said:

People are taking Charlie’s number seriously?

 

1. It was posted at 2 P.M. Eastern/11 A.M. Pacific. There’s not nearly enough data to make a projection at that time.

 

2. This movie has clearly skewed towards older audiences which means heavier walkups. Again, very little data on that at this time. Plus, even in June, older audiences have a lot more time on their hands on Saturday than Friday.

 

3. It increased 16% from true Friday to Saturday on opening weekend. It’s not staying flat from Friday to Saturday on its second weekend.

 

Everyone needs to relax. If it were 28 I would be disappointed but 25 at 2 P.M. Eastern is clearly a troll number.

1. @EmpireCity kicked off this thread with a $22-$23M Fri estimate at 1PM eastern, final was $25M. So it is possible to at least be in the ballpark that early 

 

In regards to 2 & 3, I suspect it was both a “real” estimate and will also prove to be too low by end of day. But if we wind up with a very small Sat increase, I have a theory as to why (on top of the already stated limited room for PLF grosses to increase)

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superduperm Box Office Gold

superduperm

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, M37 said:

1. @EmpireCity kicked off this thread with a $22-$23M Fri estimate at 1PM eastern, final was $25M. So it is possible to at least be in the ballpark that early 

 

In regards to 2 & 3, I suspect it was both a “real” estimate and will also prove to be too low by end of day. But if we wind up with a very small Sat increase, I have a theory as to why (on top of the already stated limited room for PLF grosses to increase)


I’m telling you, there is no way $25M is a real estimate.

 

Look up some of the most frontloaded films in history like the Twilight and Harry Potter sequels (Eclipse and HP8 for example), both of which opened in the prime of summer and skewed younger. Even those had double-digit increases on their second Saturdays.

 

The absolute floor for Top Gun today is 29. And even that would be disappointing; that would be the same exact increase as opening weekend true Friday to Saturday.

 

Anything less and I’ll wonder what in the heck happened.

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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

Posted
Posted

Tom Cruise is such an anomoly. 

 

What are other major stars from the 90's putting out?

 

Tom Hanks has the straight to streaming Pinocchio. 

 

Brad Pitt has some mega-niche train movie.

 

Will Smith's King Richard can't even crack 20m domestic.

 

Meanwhile Tom Cruise is challenging MCU/JW and has another major IP coming out next year.

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Maggie Box Office Gold

Maggie

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Tom Cruise is such an anomoly. 

 

What are other major stars from the 90's putting out?

 

Tom Hanks has the straight to streaming Pinocchio. 

 

Brad Pitt has some mega-niche train movie.

 

Will Smith's King Richard can't even crack 20m domestic.

 

Meanwhile Tom Cruise is challenging MCU/JW and has another major IP coming out next year.

Brad Pitt is the best outta this bunch. His train movie actually looks good and it's gonna be a nice commercial hit. I like that he combines commercial fare with prestige, Oscar movies.

 

Tom Hanks is in Elvis. That's gonna be a hit too

 

Oh and Cruise is from the 80's. Top Gun was a mega hit in the 80's

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Flamengo81 Sleeper Hit

Flamengo81

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Brad Pitt is the best outta this bunch. His train movie actually looks good and it's gonna be a nice commercial hit. I like that he combines commercial fare with prestige, Oscar movies.

 

Tom Hanks is in Elvis. That's gonna be a hit too

 

Oh and Cruise is from the 80's. Top Gun was a mega hit in the 80's

Brad Pitt is in the same tier of celebrity fame as Tom Cruise and Leonardo DiCaprio, which neither of those are IMO. But as far as being reliable at the box office Cruise is indeed in another tier...

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The Wild Eric Global Phenomenon

The Wild Eric

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Blankments said:

@WrathOfHan @Eric Mitchell summer has officially arrived:

 

15x:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Spider-Man: No Way Home IMAX, Spider-Man: No Way Home Round 2, The Batman Dolby, After Yang, The Lost City Dolby, Morbius Dolby, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Outfit, Ambulance, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Everything Everywhere All at Once Round 3 IMAX
Top Gun: Maverick: Gemini Man Dolby HFR120fps3D, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Dolby, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Round 2 IMAX, A Quiet Place Part II IMAX, Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins IMAX, The Godfather Dolby, The Lost City Dolby, Morbius Dolby, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Dolby, Ambulance, The Northman Dolby, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Round 2 IMAX, Downton Abbey: A New Era Dolby

 

14x:

 

Lightyear: Encanto Dolby Atmos, The Matrix Resurrections, Nightmare Alley, The Matrix Resurrections Round 2, West Side Story Round 2, The Matrix Resurrections Round 3, The King’s Man, Death on the Nile Dolby, Turning Red, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Dolby, Everything Everywhere All at One Round 3 IMAX, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Round 2 IMAX, The Bad Guys, Downton Abbey: A New Era Dolby

 

11x:

 

Downton Abbey: A New Era: Belfast, Sing 2 Dolby, The Souvenir: Part II, Drive My Car Round 3, After Yang, Cyrano, The Outfit, The Northman Dolby, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, The Bad Guys, Hard Boiled 35mm

 

9x:

 

The Bob’s Burgers Movie: Death on the Nile Dolby, Uncharted Dolby, The Godfather Dolby, The Batman Dolby, The Lost City Dolby, Morbius Dolby, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Outfit, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

 

7x:

 

Nope: The Batman Dolby, Morbius Dolby, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Northman Dolby, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, Everything Everywhere All at Once Round 3 IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Dolby

 

5x:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion: Uncharted Dolby, Ambulance, The Northman Dolby, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Round 2 IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Dolby
Minions: The Rise of Gru: The Call of the Wild Dolby, Onward Dolby, The Croods Round 2, The Bad Guys, Top Gun: Maverick Dolby

 

4x:

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Sing 2 Dolby, Belle Round 2, Morbius Dolby, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Dolby
Firestarter: Da 5 Bloods, The Outfit, Ambulance, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
DC League of Super-Pets: The Mitchells vs. the Machines, King Richard, 2022 Animated Shorts, The Bad Guys
Elvis: The Batman Dolby, The Northman Dolby, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, Top Gun: Maverick Dolby
Thor: Love and Thunder: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Round 2 IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Dolby

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

16 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

 

 

8x:

Lightyear (West Side Story, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Matrix: Resurrections, Death on the Nile, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick)

 

5x:

Nope (X, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Northman, Men, Top Gun: Maverick)

 

4x:

Elvis (The Northman, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Petite Maman, Top Gun: Maverick)

 

3x:

Bullet Train (The Northman, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick)

Jurassic World: Dominion (The Northman, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick)

 

2x:

Don't Worry Darling (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Men)

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Top Gun: Maverick)

Thor: Love and Thunder (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick)

 

1x:

Avatar: The Way of Water (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness)

Bodies Bodies Bodies (Men)

Crimes of the Future (Men)

DC League of Super Pets (Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore)

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (Petite Maman)

The Menu (Men)

Smile (Top Gun: Maverick)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sonic the Hedgehog 2)

Sorry I didn't do this earlier, but I just watched a movie earlier today, so here's my final final trailer update.

 

9x:

Lightyear: The King's Man, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Dog, Death on the Nile, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, The Bad Guys, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick, The Bob's Burgers Movie

 

8x:

Nope: The Batman, X, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Men, Top Gun: Maverick, Crimes of the Future

 

7x:

Downton Abbey: A New Era: Dog, Death on the Nile, The Lost City, The Outfit, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, Petite Maman, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Jurassic World: Dominion: Uncharted, RRR, Ambulance, The Northman, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick, Jazz Fest: A New Orleans Story

Elvis: The Batman, X, Ambulance, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick, Jazz Fest: A New Orleans Story

 

5x:

Bullet Train: The Batman, Ambulance, The Northman, Men, The Bob's Burgers Movie

 

4x:

DC League of Super Pets: King Richard, The Batman, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, The Bad Guys

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Dog, Uncharted, The Guide, RRR

 

3x:

Men: X, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Northman

Top Gun: Maverick: The Lost City, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, The Northman

Thor: Love and Thunder: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Bob's Burgers Movie, Jazz Fest: A New Orleans Story

 

2x:

The Duke: The Outfit, Petite Maman

The Bob's Burgers Movie: Death on the Nile, The Northman

The Phantom of the Open: The Duke, Jazz Fest: A New Orleans Story

Minions: The Rise of Gru: Sonic the Hedgehog 2, The Bad Guys

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank: Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Top Gun: Maverick

Moonage Daydream: Top Gun: Maverick, Crimes of the Future

Black Adam: Uncharted, The Batman

Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom: Uncharted, The Batman

The Flash: Uncharted, The Batman

 

1x:

Firestarter: Ambulance

Jazz Fest: A New Orleans Story: The Duke

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Fire of Love: Crimes of the Future

Bodies Bodies Bodies: Men

Easter Sunday: The Bob's Burgers Movie

Smile: Top Gun: Maverick

The Devil's Light: The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

The Menu: Men

Avatar: The Way of Water: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish: The Bad Guys

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1: Top Gun: Maverick

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre: The King's Man

The Unbreakable Boy: King Richard

 

Lot of colons!

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