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WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

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LIFE

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FINDS
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A
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WAY

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1993 was a crazy time to be alive. Bill Clinton became president, Food Network arrived on cable, Audrey Hepburn died, Cheers aired its series finale, Whoomp! There It Is invaded radio stations, and Beanie Babies, the 90s equivalent of NFTs, roamed the earth. But one pop culture event was the craziest one of all, at least within Hollywood. That year, Jurassic Park was released to the world.

 

From the legend that is Steven Spielberg, Jurassic Park was a gamechanger, the kind Spielberg himself last achieved a decade-plus prior with Jaws and E.T. Through the wonders and majesty of computer animation, Steven Spielberg brought dinosaurs to life, with stunning designs and effects that still look amazing today. And through these special effects is a heart-pounding adventure with suspense, horror, action, and awe-inspiring wonder all at once. As such, Jurassic Park was instantly beloved by critics and the general public as the next evolution of blockbusters, no pun intended, influenced special effects extravaganzas like Independence Day, The Lord of the Rings, and tons more, and was the highest-grossing film of all time for four years straight, until the epic success of Titanic in 1997.

 

This pedigree would continue with 1997’s The Lost World earning the biggest opening weekend in history, despite mixed reception from fans and critics, as well as 2001’s Jurassic Park III...making a lot of money I guess. And it seemed for a while that this was the end of the Jurassic Park story, with nothing else left to tell, and a shining legacy of one masterpiece and two...not masterpieces. But then 2015 came along. And everything changed.

 

On that fateful June 12 release date, the world was in shock and awe as John Hammond’s dream of a dinosaur theme park was finally realized. And while this too was a not masterpiece, the people were in love. To the shock of everybody, the film that was projected to open between $125-200 million did the impossible and earned the biggest opening weekend of all time, toppling The Avengers from its three-year perch. It’s a record that nobody saw coming. Even $150 million would have been considered a rousing success. But out of nowhere, blindsiding everybody, this was the biggest debut in history and solidified Jurassic Park as an elite franchise at the box office, next to the MCU and Star Wars and Harry Potter.

 

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Speaking of, the record would not last, because another nostalgia-heavy sequel from a galaxy far far away would rake in even more dough. And yes, The Force Awakens’ numbers are more than impressive, and deserve their adulation and praise. But to me, Jurassic World was the most exciting and interesting box office story of that year. Force Awakens making over $900 million domestically is incredible and mind-blowing, but we all knew it was destined to make a lot of money solely on the nostalgia wave and excitement over the grand, epic return of Star Wars. This doing nearly a billion is incredible, but not super unbelievable.

 

Jurassic World was something nobody expected to do $400 million, let alone $600 million with the opening weekend record. But it did, and is now Universal’s biggest cash cow at the moment. Countless video games, Lego sets, TV specials, two animated shows, with Camp Cretaceous in particular being a dynamite hit for Netflix, a roller coaster, and one big pile of shitload of toys have come out in the years since. Then of course, in 2018, the epic sequel launched with Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. This too was a not masterpiece, but was still a monumental hit with $1.31 billion to its name, only further showcasing Jurassic as a dominant force in the box office, and the biggest non-Disney franchise out there today.

 

And now, after numerous COVID delays, 2022 will give us the epic conclusion to the Jurassic World trilogy (even though we all know there will be a bajillion sequels after this), with Jurassic World: Dominion. And for Jurassic Park fans young and old, this is a monumental conclusion. An epic finale not unlike Avengers: Endgame or Deathly Hallows Part 2 before it. The film will finally give us dinosaurs living side by side with humans, a concept only teased prior to this movie. We get to see Chris Pratt do cool motorcycle shit yet again. And most exciting of all, Alan Grant, Ellie Satler, and Ian Malcolm are all finally together for the first time since 1993.

 

That alone, in a market, is enough to get people excited. Finally, the original three are back together in a grand adventure that wraps up all their stories, in a conclusion that is designed to finish what was started way back in 1993...even though, again, we’ll probably get a bajillion more sequels after this. Predictions are pretty high for this release, but how high will the movie go? Will the dinos cause total carnage to the box office, or will we see a massive extinction of attendance? We don't know for certain, but this is sure to be an exciting opening weekend for all.

 

But again, we must lay out some ground rules.

 

1. ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS. NOT EVEN SPOILERS POSTED UNDER SPOILER TAGS. 

 

This rule also applies to other movies in theaters and films/shows recently released on streaming. So no Top Gun: Maverick spoilers, no Bob's Burgers spoilers, no Stranger Things spoilers, no Obi-Wan spoilers, no Ms. Marvel spoilers, etc. If you do spoil something here, you will be banned. No exceptions.

 

2. KEEP YOUR AGENDA OUT OF HERE.

 

3. THE REPORT AND IGNORE BUTTONS ARE YOUR FRIENDS.

 

While trolls are already bad, responding to them only makes it worse. 

 

4. IS OFF-TOPIC DISCUSSION OKAY?

 

Off-topic discussions are okay in situations where there's downtime and there aren't any numbers, so long as they don’t get heated. But when numbers are coming up and things are getting busy, then keep off-topic things down to the minimum. 

 

And lastly...  

 

5. DON'T BE A DICK.

 

So...

 

WITHOUT FURTHER ADO

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LET'S DO THIS SHIT

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Just now, ringedmortality said:

Hey Brainbug if I liked both JW and FK will I like Dominion?

 

If you have a high tolerance for cheesy dialogue and mediocre editing, i would say yes. Its maybe a bit worse than Fallen Kingdom, but if you liked that movie, i cant see you having at least some fun with Dominion. I really liked it but im far from a non-biased voice 😄

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Just now, CoolioD1 said:

you're excited for dominion meanwhile i'm waiting for da minions. we are not the same.

 

Before my showing of Dominion, there was a Minions ad showing Minions interacting with T-Rexes and shouting nonsensical stuff. I hated it.

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2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Before my showing of Dominion, there was a Minions ad showing Minions interacting with T-Rexes and shouting nonsensical stuff. I hated it.

There we have our answer as to how Universal will revitalize the franchise.

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3 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Before my showing of Dominion, there was a Minions ad showing Minions interacting with T-Rexes and shouting nonsensical stuff. I hated it.

sounds good i'm gonna go see that and leave before the movie.

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17 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

If it goes under 140M for the weekend, i will have a crisis.

I think it will. I'm thinking 120 right now. Probably loses ground continuously to Top Gun 2 through the weekend.

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Posted (edited)

In a way, if this film underperforms, it would be falling in line with both trilogies' trend of 1) The breakout hit, 2) The successful sequel, and 3) The profitable but disappointing threequel (looking at you JP3)

Edited by Cheddar Please
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18 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

If it goes under 140M for the weekend, i will have a crisis.

What do we think, preview number wise, locks in $140m+? 

Jurassic World did 11.2x its preview of $18.5m

 

Fallen Kingdom did 9.67x its preview of $15.3m

 

$15.6m locks in $140m maybe? with a 9x multiplier.
 

Unless previews in general have become more common or it suffers an MCU level multiplier. 

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6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

I think it will. I'm thinking 120 right now. Probably loses ground continuously to Top Gun 2 through the weekend.

 

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1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

What do we think, preview number wise, locks in $140m+? 

Jurassic World did 11.2x its preview of $18.5m

 

Fallen Kingdom did 9.67x its preview of $15.3m

 

$15.6m locks in $140m maybe? with a 9x multiplier.
 

Unless previews in general have become more common or it suffers an MCU level multiplier. 

 

It is starting its previews earlier than FK and especially JW, so the preview-to-OW ratio will be lower by default. If i had to guess it could be closer to an 8 than a 9, so using that, for 140M a preview number around 17,5M would be needed.

 

If it does get those familys in the theaters and WOM is better than expected (ratio could thus go up to a 9, closer to FK), for 140M, 15,5M would be needed.

 

In other words, the closer we are to 20M in previews, the better i can sleep. But honestly, the tracking thread points to a number more around 16 - 18M.

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3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Is this being released in China?

 

Yes, its looking not too bad over there, 50M+ from China should be safe.

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