WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Brainbug]

143M is ok.

 

This is like that kind of number where im not sad but im also not celebrating.

 

400M will be very tough. Its not impossible, but it will need good holds for that.

 

Lets see where OS numbers stand

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

 

 

So pretty much spot on what @charlie Jatinder projected.

 

1B is looking extremely hard should China and DOM both not have atleast solid legs. 900M WW is the target imo.

[John Marston]

The goal is for Top Gun Maverick to pass $620,181,382

[keysersoze123]

I dont think OS markets held even as well as domestic. Only Mexico did really well compared to past 2 movies. Most other markets it lost quite a bit plus dollar is stronger now as well. Still its a solid WW number. 

[Brainbug]

Deadline:

 

SUNDAY AM UPDATE: Refresh for chart and more analysis Nothing is killing, or tripping Universal/Amblin’s Jurassic World Dominion, which saw its Saturday business jump to $46.7M compared to Friday’s actual gross less $18M previews of $41.7M, a 12% climb. This puts the Colin Trevorrow directed, written and executive produced sequel on a course for a $143.37M opening, off 3% from the last film, Fallen Kingdom.

 

As previously mentioned, Dominion has posted the best stateside debut for a non-superhero movie during the pandemic, besting the $126.7M 3-day previously posted by Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick, which held up tremendously against the dinos in its third weekend with $50M, -44%, and a running total of $393.3M.

 

The worldwide weekend is $319M, for a global running total of $389M, which includes offshore holdovers.

 

As we pointed out yesterday, PostTrak exits showed that 43% of all moviegoers bought tickets because the sequel is part of a franchise they love, while 25% said the cast as a whole.

 

Dominion skewed more male at 56%, consistent with the previous sequels, with the majority being over 25 at 56% and the 18-34 moviegoing demo showing up at 46%. Dominion, while overperforming in the West Coast and in the South Central region, also overindexed in Latino and Hispanic markets such as Houston, San Antonio, Albuquerque and El Paso.

Imax, PLFs and all enhanced formats drove 35% of the weekend’s ticket sales. Imax’s 400 auditoriums claimed 8% of the gross. Interesting to note here as we barrel toward Avatar 2 in December that 3D screens repped 13% of Dominion‘s gross.

[The Dark Alfred]

TGM is going to come out on top this summer WW as well (unless Thor explodes). DS2 vs JWD domestic and worldwide battle will be fun to track. I think DS2 comes out on top domestically, but JWD wins worldwide. It will reach 950m, will come short of a billion.

[Tokugennumataka]

Ouch at that JWD WW numbers. 1B is not happening. JWD and DS2, two supposedly surefire 1B grossers going below that. 

[titanic2187]

I am surprised to see the week-to-week drop for holdovers didn’t improve as weekend progress, suggest that maybe the wom for JWD is not that toxic to push out the people back to holdovers. 
 

Still, Not really happy with JWD’s number since that Saturday bump is pretty meh, and Sunday estimate by universal is a bold one even with summer sunday.
 

The <8x of preview is a meh one but I do want to highlight this is actually one the best for major opening we see since reopening.

 

F9: 9.9x (7pm)

Shangchi: 8.6x(6pm)

eternals: 7.5x (6pm)

venom 2: 7.8x (4pm)

NwH: 5.2x (3pm)

batman: 6.2x (3pm with significant EA)

sonic2: 11.5x (3pm with significant EA)

DS2: 5.2x (3pm)

TGM: 6.6x (3pm with significant EA)

JWD: 8x (4pm)

 

 

 

 

 

[Grebacio]

1bn got extinct

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

38 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

This makes alot of sense to me.

 

Most movie productions are made on the coasts and the majority of those that make and finance movies lean liberal, so the majority of movies are going to tend to reflect their sensibilities. 

 

The divide they are talking about may largely be a supply issue - ie, Hollywood is not making enough movies that appeal to more conservative (and given the Independent numbers) moderate moviegoers so they go out less because there are fewer films that interest them.

 

TGM's results suggest Hollywood is leaving money on the table and also potentially hurting theaters outside the coasts by not having a broad enough product range.

 

FWIW, I don't really expect this to change much, if anything I expect the difference to widen.

 

 

 

I think there's definitely some truth in this, but there will always be a marked difference because, as said by the poster you quoted, the theory comes from assuming Republicans and Democrats have equal access to movie theatres, which they very definitively don't give the urban/rural trends of voting patterns - conservatives will on average live further away from a theatre. 

 

Yes Hollywood product is more popular at the coast because it leans liberal but higher population densities also lean both liberal and *being near a coast*.

 

However I think the success of TGM: a film that manages to appeal to conservatives *without non appealing to liberals* does show product is currently not that broad. However Father Stu, a fairly sedate conservative-appealing film didn't do particularly well very recently despite a big star. I'd argue it's quite hard to balance the trend.

 

I'd also suggest suggest that there have been a lot of films this summer like Jurassic World: Dominion, Uncharted, Sonic 2, The Lost City and Doctor Strange 2 that hardly lean liberal at all. That is, unless by *lean liberal* is just to mean 'be set internationally, not be overtly/specifically patriotic, and use a range of demographics'. Which is the concern because of course even if you ignore ethics and just work pragmatically - all of those things are going to then reduce film's abilities to play abroad.  

 

Big budget conservative megahits got a big double whammy in the 90s with Forrest Gump and Braveheart, I think aiming for a version of those two films might be something to consider perhaps. The only thing is that in the 90s Forrest Gump and Braveheart didn't overtly alienate liberals...while I think they probably would today in a world where social media means you can check notes.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Grebacio said:

1bn got extinct

 

Doctor Strange 2 vs Dominion could be very close as @The Dark Alfred has pointed out. Big advantage for Dominion is China, while DS opened higher in most markets. But DS legs are not the best, so Dominion imo has a chance.

[PDC1987]

9 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Fallen Kingdom fell 58.8% 2nd weekend vs no serious comp (the new releases were Sicario 2 and Uncle Drew). This one drops 60% since it's losing PLFs and Lightyear opens

Majority of PLF showings are statying with JW.

[Liiviig 1998]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I am surprised to see the week-to-week drop for holdovers didn’t improve as weekend progress, suggest that maybe the wom for JWD is not that toxic to push out the people back to holdovers. 
 

Still, Not really happy with JWD’s number since that Saturday bump is pretty meh, and Sunday estimate by universal is a bold one even with summer sunday.
 

The <8x of preview is a meh one but I do want to highlight this is actually one the best for major opening we see since reopening.

 

F9: 9.9x (7pm)

Shangchi: 8.6x(6pm)

eternals: 7.5x (6pm)

venom 2: 7.8x (4pm)

NwH: 5.2x (3pm)

batman: 6.2x (3pm with significant EA)

sonic2: 11.5x (3pm with significant EA)

DS2: 5.2x (3pm)

TGM: 6.6x (3pm with significant EA)

JWD: 8x (4pm)

 

 

 

 

 

Universal sun estimate is actually bang on the money. (-20%) . FK dropped the same . Slightly increasing from actuals is also possible.

[Valonqar]

JWD's OS is absolutely shit casue it opened in China. No way around it.

 

I see that TGM is at 747M WW with tons of gas in the tank. Billie is indeed locked.

 

What a great sirprise that movie is! ✈️

Edited June 12, 2022 by Valonqar

[Tokugennumataka]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Doctor Strange 2 vs Dominion could be very close as @The Dark Alfred has pointed out. Big advantage for Dominion is China, while DS opened higher in most markets. But DS legs are not the best, so Dominion imo has a chance.

DS2 955M or so. JWD maybe 910-920M? 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Tokugennumataka said:

DS2 955M or so. JWD maybe 910-920M? 

 

That seems about right. DS is now at 930M Worldwide, another 25M should be possible, potentially a bit more, so lets say 960M. The streaming release will hurt it.

 

Dominions OS OW in many markets wasnt too hot, though a possible 80-100M take in China could balance that out a bit. Its at 50M after the OW already and has thus far not shown signs of collapsing. Still, 900M+ is not safe. Should it get worse-than-expected legs DOM and OS, it will fall short.

 

Next weekend, especially OS, will tell us a lot more how this duel could turn out. Atm, im leaning towards the Doctor winning.

[Borobudur]

22 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:

If Universal doesn't fudge their numbers with Minions on 7/1, sadly it will not happen. Still, an amazing run, especially overseas. This weekend was a perfect opportunity for Universal to do drive ins with JWD when it was more compatible than Firestarter.

So we possibly have two near miss $100m grosser? FB3 and TBG. I hope Universal can pair this up with Minion for double feature. 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Borobudur

[cdsacken]

12 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Ouch at that JWD WW numbers. 1B is not happening. JWD and DS2, two supposedly surefire 1B grossers going below that. 

DS2 doing nearly 1B without China. First one did 677m with 16% coming from China aka 110m.

 

as for JWD huge disappointment but given Fallen Kingdom it was expected sadly

[The Dark Alfred]

Yea it remains to been seen how mixed the WoM is for JDW. It's not like DS2's WoM and legs were much to brag about either and summer weekdays will work in favour of JDW, on the flip side Lightyear and Minions will tear into its family crowd big time.

[cdsacken]

14 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 Strongly disagree. I think its 50/50 (at worst) it gets to 600.

Too much good stuff comping out.

 

although! Next week should be baller even with lightyear. Father’s Day and Juneteenth 

 

after a huge drop kinda thinking barely any drop including Monday. Then next week another nice big drop. Thor will be the mail in the coffin. I expect great things, looks incredible