BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, Ted Huynh said:

Dear Taruseth, 
Does Joker still hold a chance to make it past 4 mil admissions? 
Many thanks. 

Joker should be about 3.19-3.2M after the weekend, normally I would say after a 400k weekend passing 4M is basically locked, but I think that the weekend was greatly helped by the holidays on thursday and friday. So next weekend drops will be kinda hard, none the less it only has 800k more to go:

4th wdays: 100k

5th wend: 225k (-43.75% - probably too harsh)

5th wdays: 55k

6th wend: 155k (-31.1%)

6th days: 25k

7th wend: 90k (-41.9%) Frozen 2 needs screens so Joker will lose most afternoon showings*

7th wdays: 15k

8th wend: 65k (-31.6%)

8th wdays: 10k

9th wend: 35k (-46.2%) this might be to steep as no big movie is supposed to open

9th days: 5k

10th wend: 20k (-42.9%) Jumanji probably hurts, so this in turn could be harsher

10th wdays: 5k

11th wend - will probably get slaughtered as Star Wars opens.

Would be 805k. So I think it's heading for 3.9-4.1M.

 

*I think Frozen 2 will play more afternoon heavy than the average Disney/Pixar movie- maybe it's just my feeling or locally, but Disney/Pixar kids movies appear to be leaning more towards the evening than Illumination etc. kids movies.

[lab276]

Great opening for the local movie, could be looking at 4m+ admissions total.

Edited November 4, 2019 by lab276

[Aristis]

Monday update:

 

Geheimnis 920k (4-day) 1,04M (i.P.) the movie is very close to TLK for the 2nd biggest OW of the year.

 

Top5 OW 2019:

        Admissions / theatres / average

1	1.671.661	717	2.331	A:EG
2	921.781	746	1.236	TLK
3	920.000*	700*	1.314*	Das perfekte Geheimnis
4	841.002	690	1.219	Joker
5	640.081	633	1.011	Captain Marvel

 

Joker 395k (-12%) 3,2M in the end Joker didn't reach TLK 4th WE (406k)... But it is already the 3rd biggest DC movie ever:

     year / admissions

1	79	4,2M	Superman
2	12	3,3M	The Dark Knight Rises
3	19	3,2M	Joker
4	08	2,9M	The Dark Knight
5	19	2,0M	Aquaman

 

Maleficent2 175k (-5%) 795k it's a little above its predecessor after 3 WE (784k)

Addams Family 145k (+63%/+37%) 290k

Terminator 115k (-14%) 305k

 

[Bart Allen]

Has Joker hit 3 million admissions in Germany? If so, is there any link to confirm it?

[el sid]

9 hours ago, Bart Allen said:

Has Joker hit 3 million admissions in Germany? If so, is there any link to confirm it?

Yes, Joker had including Sunday 3.2M admissions (this weekend: 395k admissions, only -12%). Link: insidekino.de → News (in the middle of the frontpage) → Scroll down to "Deutschland".

[Bart Allen]

8 minutes ago, el sid said:

Yes, Joker had including Sunday 3.2M admissions (this weekend: 395k admissions, only -12%). Link: insidekino.de → News (in the middle of the frontpage) → Scroll down to "Deutschland".

Thanks so much!

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Das perfekte Geheimnis	924.217	700	1.320	1.043.349	9.419.668	-	1
2	Joker	397.808	701	567	3.211.757	29.801.857	-12	4
3	Maleficent 2	174.637	574	304	793.654	7.758.364	-5	3
4	The Addams Family	145.675	481	303	292.513	2.172.637	+64	2
5	Terminator - Dark Fate	116.511	491	237	304.252	2.839.779	-13	2
6	Ich war noch niemals in New York	75.654	504	150	389.428	3.390.510	-18	3
7	Shaun the Sheep 2	67.150	628	107	749.925	5.091.095	+59	6
8	7. Kogustaki Mucize	56.730	106	535	213.651	1.867.525	+8	4
9	Bayala	47.937	391	123	100.134	673.545	+30	2
10	Parasite	46.478	137	339	209.079	1.836.399	-1	3
11	Halloween Haunt	46.429	239	194	61.311	510.115	-	1
12	Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark	43.056	255	169	52.137	435.244	-	1
13	Angry Birds 2	41.774	434	96	704.228	4.942.705	+33	7
14	Abominable	39.472	511	77	514.966	3.668.192	+40	6
15	Dora and the Golden City	37.221	352	106	231.988	1.578.063	+29	4
16	Deutschstunde	24.261	217	112	247.318	2.117.852	+6	5
17	Systemsprenger	22.393	365	61	452.325	3.573.335	-8	7
18	Gemini Man	21.998	249	88	591.912	5.982.476	-39	5
19	Dem Horizont so nah	21.223	316	67	319.730	2.577.501	-50	4
20	Portrait de la jeune fille en feu	21.127	88	240	25.643	208.157	-	1

Excellent weekend, fine holds resp. increases and opener Das perfekte Geheimnis (domestic remake of a 2016 Italian hit comedy) much stronger than I expected! The only strange thing was the fact that on a Halloween weekend none of the horror openers made it into the Top10 …

Next weekend: No competition for this week's Top 2; maybe Emmerich's Midway has a chance at #3. Also opening, and with better chances at #3: Turkish comedy sequel Recep İvedik 6.

[Bart Allen]

Joker needs another 3 million Euro to topple Bohemian Rhapsody's October record in Germany - which it should beat this week I believe; but I'm trying to see whether there's another film who had a higher gross than BR in Germany for October and the current 16-rating film record ~

Edited November 6, 2019 by Bart Allen

[Aristis]

2 hours ago, Bart Allen said:

Joker needs another 3 million Euro to topple Bohemian Rhapsody's October record in Germany - which it should beat this week I believe; but I'm trying to see whether there's another film who had a higher gross than BR in Germany for October and the current 16-rating film record ~

With Octobre record you mean the biggest movie opening in October? Cause there are quite some bigger ones.

And the 16 record might be Matrix 4,78M

[Bart Allen]

35 minutes ago, Aristis said:

With Octobre record you mean the biggest movie opening in October? Cause there are quite some bigger ones.

And the 16 record might be Matrix 4,78M

Which Matrix?

[George Parr]

5 hours ago, Bart Allen said:

Joker needs another 3 million Euro to topple Bohemian Rhapsody's October record in Germany - which it should beat this week I believe; but I'm trying to see whether there's another film who had a higher gross than BR in Germany for October and the current 16-rating film record ~

Bohemian Rapsody only had a single day in October, its actual opening weekend came in November. Not sure if that really counts as an October start.

 

If you are looking for the biggest total of a movie that started in October, that would be Fack ju Göhte 3 with 53m €. Forrest Gump also had 40m+ Euro if you applied the exchange from DM to Euro. Ratatouille made 34m, slightly besting BR as well. Not quite sure to how much money the 6.8m admissions of 7 Zwerge translates to, Harry Potter came in at about 40m Euro with 6.6m admissions, but that movie probably had a higher average ticket price. Still, 7 Zwerge has a realistic shot of being ahead of BR as well.

 

As for movies with a 16-rating: the first and second Matrix movies had basically an equal admissions total, 4.78m to 4.77m. Though I don't think either translates to 30m+ Euro. Movies simply have become much more expensive since then.

The highest total in terms of Euro should probably belong to Fifty Shades of Grey, with 38.6m € from 4.4m admissions.

Edited November 6, 2019 by George Parr

[Bart Allen]

25 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Bohemian Rapsody only had a single day in October, its actual opening weekend came in November. Not sure if that really counts as an October start.

 

If you are looking for the biggest total of a movie that started in October, that would be Fack ju Göhte 3 with 53m €. Forrest Gump also had 40m+ Euro if you applied the exchange from DM to Euro. Ratatouille made 34m, slightly besting BR as well. Not quite sure to how much money the 6.8m admissions of 7 Zwerge translates to, Harry Potter came in at about 40m Euro with 6.6m admissions, but that movie probably had a higher average ticket price. Still, 7 Zwerge has a realistic shot of being ahead of BR as well.

 

As for movies with a 16-rating: the first and second Matrix movies had basically an equal admissions total, 4.78m to 4.77m. Though I don't think either translates to 30m+ Euro. Movies simply have become much more expensive since then.

The highest total in terms of Euro should probably belong to Fifty Shades of Grey, with 38.6m € from 4.4m admissions.

Utterly amazing thanks

[Taruseth]

Insidekino.de 1st estimates:

Das perfekte Geheimnis: 750k (-19% great to amazing hold)

Joker: 250k (total 3.55M) (-37%)

Zombieland II: 160k (already over the total of the first movie)

Recep Ivedik 6: 110k (this would be kinda bad)

Maleficent: 85k (total 905k) (-51%)

Terminator: 65k (total 400k) (-44.4% hold is actually kinda good)

The Addams Family: 65k (365k) (-55%, but just 27% down from opening weekend)

Lara: 40k (only in 83 cinemas).

 

 

Btw. TLK should be past 5.5M by now.

If Frozen 2 and TROS deliver we would end up with 6 4M movies.

4M movies (in brackets numbers above 5M)

2018: /

2017: 3 (but one 94k below 6m, the other 136k above)

2016: /

2015: 8 (1 slightly below 7M, on slightly above, one at 7.7M and TFA at 9.06M)

2014: 3 (one at 6M, one at 7.27M)

2013: 4 (1 at 6.1M and one at 7.4M)

2012: 4 (two at 6.7M, one at 7.83M and one at 9.16M, no movie between 3.97 and 6.67M)

2011: 4 (one at 6.5M)

2010: 1 (5.8M)

2009: 6 (one at 6.2M, one at 8.7M and one at 11.3M)

2008: 3 (one at 6.06M)

2007: 5 (three between 6.07M and 6.3M and one at 7.1M)

2006: 5 (three between 5.45M and 5.67M and one at 7.23M and one at 8.75M)

2005: 4 (one at 5.62M, one at 6.72M and one at 8M)

2004: 7 (one at 5.32M one at 6.63M, one at 6.8M and one at 9.165M)

2003: 5 (one at 6.18M, one at 6.58M, one at 8.68M and one at 10.43M)

2002: 8 (5.15M, 5.19, 5.7M, 7.3M, 9.7M, 10.7M)

2001: 9 (5.8M, 6.49M, 11.72M, 11.83M, 12.57M)

2000: 4 (6.168M)

 

Never before realized how insane the 8 movies above 4M in 2015, for the past twenty years that's tied in second place with 2002 behind only freaking 2001. Also the three highest grossing movies since 2000 released within 5 month from (19th July (#3 Der Schuh des Manitu), 22nd November (#1 HP 1) and 19th December (#2 LotR 1).

But that also shows that overall movies either tend to get past 4M or fall short by a lot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Taruseth

[Bart Allen]

@Taruseth do you think it's possible for Joker to reach 5 million admissions? ~

[RJ 95]

7 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

@Taruseth do you think it's possible for Joker to reach 5 million admissions? ~

I think he already made a prediction, it will get 4m but not much more. Also in Insidekino they predict 4m. 5 million is too far.

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

Joker: 250k (total 3.55M) (-37%)

At the moment I can't really see this happening as it would be a huge IM for a movie like Joker. But MarkG is great in predicting so maybe it really is possible...

 

And if that hold happens for Geheimnis we might get some more than just 4M admissions there.

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, Bart Allen said:

@Taruseth do you think it's possible for Joker to reach 5 million admissions? ~

As said, 5M won't happen. But if it really reaches 250k this WE my hope for €40M+ might still be alive (it would need 4,3M+ for that to happen). But for now I would stay with the InsideKino prediction of 4M.

[RJ 95]

3 minutes ago, Aristis said:

As said, 5M won't happen. But if it really reaches 250k this WE my hope for €40M+ might still be alive (it would need 4,3M+ for that to happen). But for now I would stay with the InsideKino prediction of 4M.

Isn't that 250k prediction for this WE also seems a bit too high, if that 25k for Thursday is true ? maybe multiplier is higher ?

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, RJ 95 said:

Isn't that 250k prediction for this WE also seems a bit too high, if that 25k for Thursday is true ? maybe multiplier is higher ?

That's what I wrote in the first post - I fear the predicted IM may be too optimistic. We will see tomorow.

[Aristis]

2nd Trend:

 

Geheimnis 725k (-22%/-30%)

Joker 225k (-43%)

Zombieland2 150k

Maleficent2 90k (-49%)

Addams Family 70k (-52%)

Terminator 55k (-53%)