BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[Taruseth]

insidekino.de 2nd trend:

 

Frozen II: 1450k (4-day: 1245k)

Geheimnis: 375k (-36%)

Last Christmas: 100k (-22% / -41%)

Joker: 85k (-41%)

Le Mans 66: 65k (-30% / -41%)

Zombieland: 55k (-40%)

Depeche Mode: 45k

Doctor Sleeps: 45k

Recep Ivedik 5: 35k (-64%)

 

If joker stand around 3825k after the weekend, it should leg it past 4M like Endgame did past 5M.

Endgame's 6th weekend was 80k and a 4883k total and it ended with 5124k.

Joker has it's 7th weekend slightly higher but with a total slightly more than a million lower, which is why I think Joker should overall end around 4.1M.

Geheimnis is at 3M (golden Bogey) already. I'd say it should finish it's run above Joker by a small margin.

 

Looks like the top of the year might look something like this:

RTOS: 5.8M (flat comp to TLJ / slight drop)

TLK: 5.530M

Frozen II: 5.25M (I'd like to stay reasonable - as long as we don't know OWend & 2nd)

Avengers: 5.124M

Geheimnis: 4.25M

Joker: 4.1M 

 

 

 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

final weekend estimates from insidekino.de have F2 at 1,6mil for the 5-day start, wow! most other releases a bit higher, too - excellent.

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

final weekend estimates from insidekino.de have F2 at 1,6mil for the 5-day start, wow! most other releases a bit higher, too - excellent.

 

I am really confused, because: 

Frozen II had over 1M admissions (according to insidekino) from Thursday to Saturday (that means it had a really great Friday and Saturday):

Wednesday: 205k

Thursday: 115k 

Friday: 340k (no holiday)

Saturday: 550k (1005k for Thursday - Saturday)*

Sunday: 400k?

 

 

*This Saturday sounds too high - because according to the data I remember that would be above Endgame's Saturday (500-525k?) (i.e. highest Saturday this year @RthTIFF @Jedi Jat ???)

 

But according to blickpunkt.film it had 1018k from Wednesday to Saturday, which would mean:

W: 205k

T: 110k

F: 275k

S: 428k

S: 480-580k (which would be needed for 1.5-1.6M) - have my doubts about this having a that much higher Sunday comp to Saturday - and a 580k Sunday (which is what insidekino would hope for would probably be the best day since 2015 (TFA) I think Sat and Sunday for FJGII were around 500k each and Saturday for Endgame was somewhere around there too. TLJ - I think had no day above 500k. Don't think any other movies got above 400k since TFA in 2015.

 

 

Does anyone has any information about what the highest Saturday's ever where?

 

HP1? 2.59M on 4-days? and it only had a 432k OD (don't know anything about Previews, which would mean probably 2M on Friday to Sunday, so 650k on every day, or more likeily something like 550k 800k 650k.

 

 

Edited November 24, 2019 by Taruseth

[Taruseth]

Quick 5 pm show count at Cinestar Bremen & Metropolis Frankfurt (count down around 16:15 MET=UTC+1)

 

Bremen:

2D: 16:30: 230 / 279

2D: 16:40: 304 / 425

3D: 17:00: 252 / 572

Overall: 786 / 1276 (61.6%)

 

Metropolis:

2D: 16:45: 537 / 624

2D OV: 17:45: 97 / 273

3D OV: 17:15: 110 / 344

3D: 17:30: 160 / 642

Overall: 904 / 1883

 

2D: 1168 / 1601 (72.95%) (only German: 1071 / 1328 (80.6%)

3D: 522 / 1558 (33.5%)

 

Not enough available 2D Seats - the first 3 rows stay empty most of the time - because people seem to rather not watch the movie than watch it from there.

 

With this date, I could actually think, that this might turn out true:

5 hours ago, Taruseth said:

 

[...]

But according to blickpunkt.film it had 1018k from Wednesday to Saturday, which would mean:

W: 205k

T: 110k

F: 275k

S: 428k

S: 480-580k

[...]

 

 

Maybe even close to the higher end

[Aristis]

I hope the actual WE is higher than $14,9M, cause that would probably be only around 1,55M and I want it to be past that

[Taruseth]

The Monday morning estimate for the weekend (by insidekino):

Frozen II:

1,410,000 admissions ($13.3M) (+205,000 admissions on Wednesday, so 5-day of 1.615M ≈ $15.2M))

41st best start ever (admissions)

7st best animation start ever

32nd best star ever (revenue)

147% above Frozen I.

If the number by Blickpunkt:Flim for Wednesday-Saturday was correct, that would mean that Frozen II had a 597k Sunday (1615-1018k) (That would put the Sunday above the opening weekend of Frozen I (575k). Even if it wasn't fully correct Sunday most likely was above 550k (unless they were off by a lot).

 

Geheimnis: 410k (best 4th weekend this year (roughly 4k above TLK) - total 3.34M)

Last Christmas: 105k (Total 322.5k)

Joker: 85k (3830k)

Depeche Mode: 70k (only showings on Thursday and Sunday)

Le Mans 66: 65k (210k)

Zombieland: 52.5k (352.5k)

Doctor Sleep: 45k

Recep Ivedik: 35k (325k)

 

Maleficient is finally past 1M (on Friday, so the 20th movie this year)

 

 

Overall weekend was worth 2.44M admissions ($23M) best weekend this year.

 

Edited November 25, 2019 by Taruseth

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Recep Ivedik: 35k (325k)

Turkish Cinema has good market?

[Brainbug]

22 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Turkish Cinema has good market?

 

Theres a huge turkish minority in Germany.

[Taruseth]

10 hours ago, Taruseth said:

The Monday morning estimate for the weekend (by insidekino):

Frozen II:

1,410,000 admissions ($13.3M) (+205,000 admissions on Wednesday, so 5-day of 1.615M ≈ $15.2M))

41st best start ever (admissions)

7st best animation start ever

32nd best star ever (revenue)

147% above Frozen I.

If the number by Blickpunkt:Flim for Wednesday-Saturday was correct, that would mean that Frozen II had a 597k Sunday (1615-1018k) (That would put the Sunday above the opening weekend of Frozen I (575k). Even if it wasn't fully correct Sunday most likely was above 550k (unless they were off by a lot).

 

Geheimnis: 410k (best 4th weekend this year (roughly 4k above TLK) - total 3.34M)

Last Christmas: 105k (Total 322.5k)

Joker: 85k (3830k)

Depeche Mode: 70k (only showings on Thursday and Sunday)

Le Mans 66: 65k (210k)

Zombieland: 52.5k (352.5k)

Doctor Sleep: 45k

Recep Ivedik: 35k (325k)

 

Maleficient is finally past 1M (on Friday, so the 20th movie this year)

 

 

Overall weekend was worth 2.44M admissions ($23M) best weekend this year.

 

Actuals for Frozen II are another 20k higher!

Actuals: 1,635,215

 

Also in revenue (€) it's the 2nd highest start for an animation movie only behind Ice Age 2!

[Sunny Max]

8 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Turkish Cinema has good market?

in 1960's Turkish workers arrived in Germany to fill the demand for cheaper labor in a booming post-war economy. many of them never left..

 

according to reports approx 0.750 M Turkish labor were goes to Germany during 1961 to 1973.. half of those who came returned to Turkey & the other half remained in Germany 

[Aristis]

2 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Actuals for Frozen II are another 20k higher!

Actuals: 1,635,215

 

Also in revenue (€) it's the 2nd highest start for an animation movie only behind Ice Age 2!

I wonder if it could have done even better with more showings. Most 2D showings on Saturday and Sunday were almost sold out. There wasn't any showing of F2 after 8pm and more 3D than 2D shows (probably Disney demanded that). And according to the InsideKino forums the same case was for some other cinemas.

 

Anyway, great OW. I hope it'll get the admissions it lost this WE on its 2nd WE.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Frozen 2	1.429.642	743	1.924	1.635.215	14.028.336	-	1
2	Das perfekte Geheimnis	419.006	746	562	3.352.575	29.798.343	-29	4
3	Last Christmas	107.505	487	221	325.420	2.711.784	-17	2
4	Joker	87.921	532	165	3.829.689	35.471.170	-40	7
5	Depeche Mode - Spirits in the Forest	72.368	338	214	72.368	1.079.762	-	1
6	Ford vs. Ferrari	65.915	349	189	210.168	2.020.050	-29	2
7	Zombieland 2	53.359	374	143	353.364	2.977.739	-42	3
8	Doctor Sleep	45.144	380	119	45.999	438.812	-	1
9	Recep Ivedik 6	36.279	113	321	326.825	2.770.157	-62	6
10	The Addams Family	30.645	510	60	481.908	3.517.427	-51	5
11	Maleficent 2	22.416	347	65	1.018.083	9.820.728	-64	6
12	Lara	18.595	111	168	123.658	994.993	-39	3
13	Parasite	17.088	168	102	315.835	2.765.157	-29	6
14	Shaun the Sheep 2	14.876	460	32	833.551	5.628.641	-50	9
15	Where'd You Go, Bernadette	11.158	151	74	21.295	149.055	-	1
16	Angry Birds 2	11.089	256	43	760.976	5.323.630	-46	10
17	Ich war noch niemals in New York	10.416	293	36	514.659	4.419.658	-60	6
18	Official Secrets	9.516	82	116	25.489	171.852	-	1
19	Systemsprenger	8.751	269	33	541.789	4.216.670	-46	10
20	Abominable	8.065	263	31	568.132	4.016.582	-58	9

A perfect weekend for the BO with the exception of Doctor Sleep which stayed behind expectations. Frozen 2 dominated the market, a total north of 6mil seems very probable and 7mil possible.

Next weekend: Some interesting releases - Hustlers, the Good Liar, The Lighthouse - but nothing really big (Hustlers has the best chances at a >100k OW) … and, a rare thing, not a single family release! Frozen2 will have another strong weekend at the top, possibly with a <30% drop.

[PKMLover]

Is Germany a leggy market for animated movie? What can be the legs for F2?

[Poseidon]

15 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Is Germany a leggy market for animated movie? What can be the legs for F2?

To answer that question: It depends.

 

Germany is very dependant on weather and as most big animation movies open in summer, there is a huge variety. 
Pets 2 for example had a ridiculous multiplier of 12,5!!!

On the other hand, a winter opener HTTYD3 only had a multiplier of 3,6 in february, because weekend #2 and #3 were hit hard with perfect spring weather, that put the multiplier down and the movie never recovered. 

 

Frozen should be fine in terms of weather, unless there's a snow chaos. Another enemy of the cinemas. 

 

In the End, I would expect a multiplier between 3 and 4. 

 

It should play well into the holidays, though, as Jumanji and Spies in Disguise won't play too well here I guess. 

[Aristis]

The InsideKino prediction for the 2nd WE is 930k (-35%) 2,785M. That would be good and the biggest 2nd WE of the year beating A:EG (871k). I still secretly hope it can get to 1M+ 2nd WE which happened the last time in 2017 for the local FJG3 (1,07M)...

 

2019 could look something like this in the end:

Frozen2 6M

SW9 5,7M

TLK 5,5M

A:EG 5,1M

Geheimnis 4,4M

Joker 4,1M

(I hope the italic ones will get higher...)

 

It seems strange that this year has to fight to get to 120M+ admissions as the Top10 is rather strong:

2019 (with the numbers above) ~40M

2018 ~30M --> 105,4M

2017 ~37M --> 122,3M

2016 ~34M --> 121,1M

 

But below that 2019 is probably too weak to easily get there as we have only 21x 1M+ movies yet (22x including SW9, which is save) compared to 30x (2018), 32x (2017) and 31x (2016). But maybe the strong year end can rescue us...

Edited November 27, 2019 by Aristis

[Aristis]

Just some more statistics (mostly) about F2 OW:

 

TOP10 2019 OW:

	Admissions	Theaters	PTA
1	1.671.661	717	2.331	Avengers: Endgame
2	1.429.642	743	1.924	Frozen2
3	924.217	700	1.320	Das perfekte Geheimnis
4	921.781	746	1.236	The Lion King
5	841.002	690	1.219	Joker
6	640.081	633	1.011	Captain Marvel
7	615.664	669	920	HTTYD3
8	590.145	681	867	IT2
9	491.783	621	792	Hobbs & Shaw
10	438.998	610	720	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

http://www.insidekino.de/DTop10/19/DTop19NOV21.htm

 

With SW9 yet to come TOP3 will be 1M+. But with SW9 opening on a wednesday too it isn't safe to open above F2... I hope for the best though.

 

TOP10 Animation OW:

	Admissions	Theaters	PTA
1	2.395.588	1.061	2.258	Ice Age 2
2	2.032.136	1.004	2.024	Finding Nemo
3	1.670.397	754	2.215	The Simpsons Movie
4	1.475.967	841	1.755	Madagascar 2
5	1.465.302	794	1.845	Ice Age
6	1.457.891	861	1.693	Ice Age 3
7	1.429.642	743	1.924	Frozen 2
8	1.273.707	888	1.434	Shrek 2
9	1.226.475	834	1.471	Madagascar
10	1.106.059	820	1.349	Ice Age 4

http://www.insidekino.de/DTop10/19/DTop19NOV21.htm

 

TOP OW Alltime:

	OW	Theaters	PTA		Year
28	1.682.806	982	1.714	Harry Potter 5	07
29	1.681.087	857	1.962	JB - Spectre	15
30	1.671.661	717	2.331	Avengers - Endgame	19
31	1.670.397	754	2.215	The Simpsons Movie	07
32	1.627.277	814	1.999	Star Wars 8	17

…

39	1.457.891	861	1.693	Ice Age 3	09
40	1.450.024	865	1.676	The Da Vinci Code	06
41	1.429.642	743	1.924	Frozen 2	19
42	1.409.004	950	1.483	Spider-Man	02
43	1.353.030	739	1.831	Fifty Shades of Grey	15

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord.htm

And the last one,

TOP OW Alltime in €:

	4-day OW in €	Incl. previews		Year
1	25.345.223		Star Wars 7	15
2	19.755.398		Star Wars 8	17
3	19.223.781	24.321.864 (5-day)	Avengers - Endgame	19
4	17.733.509		Fack Ju Göhte 2	15
5	16.666.356		Harry Potter 1	01

…

29	12.401.366		Fifty Shades of Grey 1	15
30	12.347.704	14.777.539 (5-day)	Fast & Furious 7	15
31	12.275.659	14.028.336 (5-day)	Frozen 2	19
32	12.144.229		Matrix Reloaded	03
33	11.938.134		Star Wars 1	99

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekordBO.htm

[Poseidon]

6 hours ago, Aristis said:

The InsideKino prediction for the 2nd WE is 930k (-35%) 2,785M. That would be good and the biggest 2nd WE of the year beating A:EG (871k). I still secretly hope it can get to 1M+ 2nd WE which happened the last time in 2017 for the local FJG3 (1,07M)...

 

2019 could look something like this in the end:

Frozen2 6M

SW9 5,7M

TLK 5,5M

A:EG 5,1M

Geheimnis 4,4M

Joker 4,1M

(I hope the italic ones will get higher...)

 

It seems strange that this year has to fight to get to 120M+ admissions as the Top10 is rather strong:

2019 (with the numbers above) ~40M

2018 ~30M --> 105,4M

2017 ~37M --> 122,3M

2016 ~34M --> 121,1M

 

But below that 2019 is probably too weak to easily get there as we have only 21x 1M+ movies yet (22x including SW9, which is save) compared to 30x (2018), 32x (2017) and 31x (2016). But maybe the strong year end can rescue us...

Mid-sized Hits are literally dead. Movies that easily got to 1m admissions 10 years ago now only hit 500k.

 

That's where Netflix and Co really hit hard. 

[edroger3]

50 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Mid-sized Hits are literally dead. Movies that easily got to 1m admissions 10 years ago now only hit 500k.

 

That's where Netflix and Co really hit hard. 

I absolutely agree. Nowadays people don't "go to the cinema just to go to the cinema". Including me.

 

Film that I watched at cinema in 2009: 4 each month.

Film that I watched at cinema in 2019: 4 each year (AE - Joker - F2 + SW9 in december). My most anticipated this year: Stranger Things 3

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

Mid-sized Hits are literally dead. Movies that easily got to 1m admissions 10 years ago now only hit 500k.

 

That's where Netflix and Co really hit hard. 

 

18 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

I absolutely agree. Nowadays people don't "go to the cinema just to go to the cinema". Including me.

 

Film that I watched at cinema in 2009: 4 each month.

Film that I watched at cinema in 2019: 4 each year (AE - Joker - F2 + SW9 in december). My most anticipated this year: Stranger Things 3

True, I thought lately that mostly "event"-movies are successful but I wasn't able to connect it that way.

Maybe someday Netflix will buy cinemas for customers to watch Netflix together...

[edroger3]

24 minutes ago, Aristis said:

 

True, I thought lately that mostly "event"-movies are successful but I wasn't able to connect it that way.

Maybe someday Netflix will buy cinemas for customers to watch Netflix together...

Just Happened!

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/nov/26/paris-theater-nyc-netflix-cinema-future