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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: BadBoys3 wins weekend, StarWars9 in post-holiday freefall

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2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de

 

#1: BadBoys3 - 450k (incl previews) - excellent!

#2: 1917 - 180k (incl previews) - also better than I expected, fine number!

#3: StarWars9 - 135k (-47%)

#4: KnivesOut - 120k (-35%)

#5: Lindenberg! - 130k (incl. previews)

 

I'd expect SW9 to drop harder than 50% in the end, but the good openers are making up for that, fine weekend!

I expected Bad Boys to open below 200k. lol (I know that insidekino predicted 400k, but I kinda thought it was dead), but it should get past 1M admissions pretty easily and end above 1.25M

 

I don't really know, but you are probably right, so 4.935-4.945M after the weekend... ->

Thinking that SW9 and Geheimnis will all end around endgame, so we probably will have 3 movies between 5.1M and 5.2M.

Knives would be at 665k after a 120k weekend. Thinking it will hit 1M but probably not get much further.

So end of the year list would look like this:

Frozen 2: 6.65M

TLK: 5.55M

TROS: 5.15M

Geheimnis: 5.15M

Endgame: 5.13M

Joker: 4.1M

Pets 2.48M

Jumanji: 2.48M

Edited by Taruseth
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3rd Trend:

Most movies increase!

 

#1 BB3 475k

#2 1917 180k

#3 Lindenberg 150k

#4 SW9 140k (-45%)

#5 Knives Out 140k (-25%)

#6 Frozen2 110k (-27%)

#7 Jumanji2 110k (-36%)

#8 Zauberhafte Schwestern 75k (-17%/-32% i.P.)

#9 Geheimnis 60k (-29%)

#10 Rosa Kaninchen 60k (-35%)

#11 Spies in disguise 55k (-11%)

#12 Weathering with you 50k

Edited by Aristis
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very nice, cool weekend with 7 releases >100k, that's not shabby! While the overall outlook for 2020 is still pessimistic, at least we're off to a good start!

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1 hour ago, Aristis said:

3rd Trend:

Most movies increase!

 

#1 BB3 475k

#2 1917 180k

#3 Lindenberg 150k

#4 SW9 140k (-45%)

#5 Knives Out 140k (-25%)

#6 Frozen2 110k (-27%)

#7 Jumanji2 110k (-36%)

#8 Zauberhafte Schwestern 75k (-17%/-32% i.P.)

#9 Geheimnis 60k (-29%)

#10 Rosa Kaninchen 60k (-35%)

#11 Spies in disguise 55k (-11%)

#12 Weathering with you 50k

BB3 should considering all most all movies end up with a 3x get above 1.3M (a 3x of weekend WO Previews).

1917's trend hasn't changed.

Lindenberg does okay, it could have good legs.

SW9 is slightly above the first trend, that would be at least something. Hoping for 5.2M in the end.

 

Knives Out should leg it past 1M in the end, but that will only happen barely.

Frozen is 30k above the 2nd trend, should be around 6.4M after the weekend and considering it dropped so little despite 3 new releases it should surely get to 6.65M, hopefully even close 6.7M. This will be it's ninth weekend above 100k (only movie with more this year is Geheimnis which had 10.)*

Jumanji with a good drop too (higher than KO and FII, but that is okay after the holds it had before). Still should be around 2.22M after the weekend and so a final around Pets 2 still looks likely.

 

Geheimnis should pass 5M today. And I'd say a total barely above Endgame is still doable, meaning endgame would drop to #5 (below Frozen, TLK, TROS and Geheimnis).

Kaninchen around 700k after the weekend. 

Spies in Disguise with an amazing drop (probably thanks to now kids movies opening), probably around 475k after the weekend, total of 600k? Which would still be the lowest by far for an animated movie by Blu Sky.

 

 

And twelve movies above 50k, that's nice, seven above 100k is nice too. Overall I'd say January was of to a better start than I thought (especially considering SW9 performing below TLJ and not slightly above as I hoped).

 

Most weekends above 100k:

2019: Geheimnis 10; Frozen II 9; TLK 8; Green Book 7;

2018: Fantastic Beast II 8, BR 8 (5+3 in-between 2 weekends below); Junge...frische Life 7;

2017: Despicable Me III 7; TLJ & FJG III 6; La La Land 6 (5+1 in-between 2 weekends) - didn't really took a look probably a whole lot more of 6 week movies;

2016: Zoomania: 8; Hartmann: 8; (6+2); Pets 2: 7 (6+1) and Revenant, Finding dory, Ice Age 5 and Me Before You had 6 weekends.

So overall 3 movies with nice legs last year, I don't think this year has that strength.

outside of a german surprise we are in for a grim year, because:

What big franchise opens a movie outside of James Bond:

If one looks at the top franchises (above 20M) of the past 21 years (1999-2019) or so:

(above 10M, above 9M, above 6M, above 5M, above 3M)

HP: 69.948M (10 movies - 1, 2, 7, 8, 10)

LotR/Hobbit: 51.811M (6 movies - 3, 3, 6, 6, 6)

SW: 45.808M (8 movies - 0, 1, 2, 6, 7 - one at 1.364M)

Marvel: 37.983M (21 movies - 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 - 4 more above 2M)***

007: 35,131M (6 movies - 0, 0, 2, 4, 6)

Ice Age: 34.377M (5 movies - 0, 0, 4, 4, 4 - one at 2.925M)

PotC: 26.559M (5 movies - 0, 0, 3, 3, 4 - one at 2.694M)

FJG: 21.282M (3 movies - 0, 0, 3, 3, 3)

F&F: 20.620M (9 movies - 0, 0, 0, 0, 2)**

 

Despicable Me: 17.788M (4 movies - 0, 0, 1, 1, 3 - one at 2.522M)

Madagascar: 16.751M (3 movies - 0, 0, 2, 2, 3)*

 

*Had this in and then realised this only had 3 movies.

**Two outliners with average of 1.808M (Marvel) & 2.291M (F&F). Only other franchise below a 5M average is Despicable Me at 4.447M.

Might try to look for all franchises above 10M, though that theoretically would include Avatar (1 movie) and above 10M would also be the movie Schuh des Manitus. And probably a lot of other movie franchises. Even the likes of Frozen would qualify (around 11.15M right now - so average of 5.58M)

 

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
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IHi everyone, someone know how much admissions Avatar and Titanic made without her re-release (I know how much they did with re-release)

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12 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

very nice, cool weekend with 7 releases >100k, that's not shabby! While the overall outlook for 2020 is still pessimistic, at least we're off to a good start!



Tbh, January is a fair bet in Germany after christmas trailering. That's why it's even more frustrating, that they wasted that Jan 9th weekend. 

 

And that's only the start of questionable scheduling issues to come. 

On Feb 20th, we have "The Call of The Wild" vs. "Lassie" and "Fantasy Island" vs. "The Boy 2". 
On March 26th we have Mulan, "Trolls 2"and "Peter Rabbit 2" opening against each other.

Mark G, of Insidekino wrote another great blog after finishing his visit at the "Münchener Filmwoche", the german Cinema Con.

http://www.blog.insidekino.de/?p=8628

 

Edited by Poseidon
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The late but nice Monday update:

#1 Bad Boys for Life 480k
#2 1917 185k (170k without previews)
#3 Lindenberg! 160k (140k)
#4 SW9 140k/4.970M
#5 Knives Out 137.5k/680k
#6 Frozen II  110k/6.400M 
#7 Jumanji 2 110k/2.220M
#8 Vier zauberhafte Schwestern 80k/200k
#9 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 62.5k/715k
#10 Das perfekte Geheimnis 60k/5.000M
#11 Weathering with You 60k (edit: Mark_G writes that it had only showtimes on Thursday and Sunday so no Wednesday previews and it is #10 or #11 of the chart; Your Name opened similar with 64.830 admissions two years ago).
#12 Spies in Disguise 55k/475k

Edited by el sid
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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Bad Boys 3

439.289

584

752

481.653

4.605.772

-

1

2

1917

171.001

416

411

192.079

1.675.402

-

1

3

Lindenberg!

141.701

475

298

167.283

1.574.309

-

1

4

Star Wars 9

140.441

562

250

4.966.534

57.275.784

-45

5

5

Knives Out

138.157

606

228

682.007

6.154.124

-26

3

6

Jumanji 2

110.500

602

184

2.221.459

20.771.494

-35

6

7

Frozen 2

108.891

665

164

6.399.577

52.397.806

-27

9

8

Vier zauberhafte Schwestern

81.433

485

168

201.434

1.372.076

-9

2

9

Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl

62.735

544

115

714.123

6.023.470

-32

4

10

Tenki No Ko

61.391

217

283

61.391

731.688

-

1

11

Das perfekte Geheimnis

60.881

529

115

5.003.638

44.329.282

-29

12

12

Spies in Dusguise

55.526

439

126

473.089

3.511.559

-10

4

13

The Grudge

28.162

233

121

90.205

799.477

-46

2

14

Psy 3

24.405

108

226

24.405

280.600

-

1

15

Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein

22.145

383

58

155.667

1.011.114

+6

4

16

Der kleine Rabe Socke 3

16.909

478

35

271.429

1.755.577

-17

6

17

Judy

12.671

134

95

87.615

739.646

-34

3

18

Charlie's Angels

10.630

208

51

138.943

1.131.735

-62

3

19

It Must be Heaven

10.508

73

144

12.520

95.850

-

1

20

Queen & Slim

10.489

104

101

49.306

404.486

-48

2

Three strong openers and fine holds especially for domestic productions - nice weekend! I was surprised how big Bad Boys 3 became, I had thought the predecessors were too long ago. 1917 should have good legs with Oscars buzz and Lindenberg! is the kind of movie which usually has great legs, too - so expect all three of them to stay in the charts for quite a while.

Next weekend: Til Schweiger's Die Hochzeit is a strong contender for #1 but with BB3 having obviously good WOM, that cake isn't eaten yet. Also opening: Jojo Rabbit.

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